SnarkyPuppy

Again - highly sensitive variables and effective lockdowns = 40k (and still clearly rising) deaths. This isn't really debatable and frankly isn't that hard to understand. The lockdowns were to buy time to a) prevent healthcare system from collapsing because any idiot without significant preconceived bias understands that there was a wide range of sensitivity to the key variables -> potential catastrophic outcomes that conservatism was the only rational decision and b) as LC points out to gain information - specifically the actual CFR and IFR through asymptomatic testing which is mind-blowing that we haven't seen solid results on (although you're starting to see data come out) Obviously if the IFR is actually low (because R0 was actually significantly higher than originally thought by a factor of 2-3x and large % of the population has been infected) you'll claim you were right - and I truly hope that's the case

Please specifically state what would cause you to change your mind I dont know. If things turned out anywhere remotely near all the doom and gloom projections(projections of course that now are denied or revised/edited/deleted and were never committed to with hard numbers anywhere) posted here 4-6 weeks ago? We all love our elders, but Im sorry...shutting down the entire country because the 60+ population with underlying symptoms carries greater risk is doing significantly more damage than just proposing stay at home orders for those most at risk. As some have pointed out, it didn't need to cost $2T a month to approach this rationally. Tell me why we're shutting down business in Oneonta, NY and telling 25 year olds they cant work? Are you confused about high sensitivity of key variables in the models and the reduced deaths due to the effectiveness of shelter in place? Choosing to ignore them? Aware of them and disagree with them?

Please specifically state what would cause you to change your mind

Imagine not being able to conceptualize high sensitivity to key variables in models (R0 a key variable has incredibly high sensitivity. R0 of 2.1 = 1mm infected; R0 of 2.3 = 10mm infected) for a novel virus with incomplete information. Obviously conservative actions in the face of a fast moving virus with significant incomplete information was appropriate. Imagine not being able to understand that # of ICU cases with shelter in place < # of ICU cases without shelter in place. You've been reverse engineering what you want to be true for 2 months now. Politics has such an wild impact on the human brain and this whole coronavirus thing is just another intense display of how the mind goes to shit when you're thinking in terms of right/left.

Jesus christ.

if getting back to normal is no covid-19 virus in circulation, then we can all go back to the Stone Age now. but after every flu season, when millions are infected and 10,000-50,000 die in US of pneumonia etc, we get back to normal without missing a step. this is easy peasy. Imagine still comparing this to the flu

You've lost your mind man.

Either almost every major govt and world health organization is blowing this way out of proportion for the first time in history - or you misunderstand the risks associated with the disease. Which do you think is more likely? These people suffer from some of the most extreme commitment and consistency bias I've seen. Don't waste your time - not worth engaging w/ these people Or, maybe, you know, on a investment board, some people look at a short term situation, call it the flu, call it coronavirus, call it whatever you please, and realize that there will be a time where this passes and that in between the baby often gets thrown out with the bath water and as such find the overreaction to be silly. Or that there will opportunities both long and short, and that "all cash" in a zero rate environment, or "shorting RCL" with a 200%+ annualized carry isn't the only investment on the table. Has little to do with commitment bias. Has to do with your outlook and time horizon. A consistency bias would be, I dont know, riding a second rate FNMA thesis through the greatest bull market in history, clinging to every bs legal filing, and then still seeing a 60% drawdown via the zombie apocalypse virus. To each their own. I entered the majority of my FNMAS position in January 2016 - 24% cagr to todays low price. Thanks for the compliment? The post I was responding to wasn't investment specific - it was around the severity of the situation which is clearly not "social media" driven to any rational person.

Either almost every major govt and world health organization is blowing this way out of proportion for the first time in history - or you misunderstand the risks associated with the disease. Which do you think is more likely? These people suffer from some of the most extreme commitment and consistency bias I've seen. Don't waste your time - not worth engaging w/ these people

Tax question. Has anyone looked into whether selling one issue and buying another constitutes a wash sale? A quick google seems to imply that if they have different interest rates (as many of the different series do) it does not constitute “substantially identical”. What if you sell and buy different series from the same issuer (Freddie)?

Strongly agree. 20,000-60,000 die in the US every flu season. 61 deaths so far from covid-19 (25 from a single life care facility in wash). and we are shutting down the nation. ignorance is bliss. Disgusting.

There are actually 4,284 reported deaths as of yesterday.. So in about 3 days the number of deaths went up by 42.8%, give or take. So if we just let this thing run it's course and focus on the flu, what do you project the number of deaths will be in 30 days? 60 days? (Coronaviruses handle the heat better than the flu, after all). M. who knows how fast it is spreading with mortal effect, though we know your 42.8% figure is wrong since you calculated with such false precision ignoring the more than qualifier. dont use data in this argument since the data proves this is a covid-19 panic given the far greater incidence and mortality for flu. data is not your friend in this argument. you are just supporting a panic thesis, and you seem to have a lot of company "And if the band you're in starts playing different tunes..."

What if you're wrong?

What is the growth rate of the flu? What is the growth rate of the coronavirus?

Italy didn't turn their entire economy off overnight because they are having a bad flu season. Commitment and consistency bias. that is my point. Italy while still hit by covid19 is hurt worse by flu every year, and they dont shut their entire country down. pure lunacy. while wuhan is a special case, since the outbreak coincided with a new year celebration with much travel and social engagement, I am not sure even wuhan had more fatalities than a normal flu season. haven't seen Chinese data on normal flu fatalities in wuhan (60MM people) So your base case thesis is that Italy shut off it's entire economy because of "fake news", instead of the thesis that there is an actual problem? What you said. Pure lunacy.

Italy didn't turn their entire economy off overnight because they are having a bad flu season. Commitment and consistency bias.

The conversation is beginning to shift, which a reason for slight optimism. It is incredibly frustrating to watch this unfold given how obvious this was ~2 weeks ago but at least most rationale people I know are starting to take notice of the severity of the situation. Though I'm not surprised to see some people continue to exhibit blatant commitment and consistency bias - maybe these people will find a way to change their minds if "more people die from COVID than the flu", but will they recognize that their unfairly high hurdle for mental flexibility means becoming concerned once we are passed the point of no return? We should be ringing every alarm at this point. We are about 10-15 days away from a catastrophic situation in the US. Each state should should be assessing, at the worst case scenario the limits of hospital capacity, and producing consistent metrics to communicate in a streamlined way to the federal government. The federal government should use every resource (economic and human capital) this country has to remediate gaps in capacity over the next 10 days. The advice to "not panic" and to not be an alarmist has been dismissive and demonstrably wrong. Maybe if there was more concern and panic 15 days ago, people would have been shitting their pants and stayed home as much as possible. Instead we continue to have massive gatherings across the country, through today, 3/10/2020. The reaction to date to this virus by the government, and now by the average person, has been absolutely disgusting.

1. I dont think the public is being misinformed about what mild is. Honestly I do not see any of the panic that anyone of this board, or social media, or media itself is portraying. The presentation of the disease will be and can be very different for different people. As always older people and immunocompromised are at higher risk, but they always have been and always will be. This is common knowledge in the medical community and a reality we deal with every day. This goes for nearly every disease, an especially those infectious. The vast, vast majority of people who contract the virus will have moderate to severe cold symptoms, some may feel like they have the flu. As always just as investing there can be a "black swan" event and a young or healthy person dies. 2. Long term consequences for those who have had covid should be minimal to none...unless you have a restrictive or significant lung diagnosis such as severe asthma, COPD, Lung cancer, and then severe pneumonia. I would think of the long term consequences comparable to the worse cold or flu you have ever had, likely none. 3. Again I don't think that young people are being lulled into a false sense of security. Their expectation of the disease should be similar to the flu/mono/pneumonia, etc all of which happen on a daily basis to everyone. I cant remember the last time I saw a young patient that was worried about getting the flu and under estimating its effect. It just isn't pertinent. Couple of other things I think is miss construed by non medical people esp on social media is the need for testing, testing, testing. For one testing is used to treat a diagnosis. Not prevent the spread of a disease. As I mention in another post we test for the flu every year like crazy. Does nothing to prevent the spread of the disease. What does? Standard precautions!!! Sure knowing someone has covid19 would allow a quarantine but by then its way, way too late. Its been spread on, or has had potential too multiple times. A reasonable understanding of incubation time, spread via respiratory droplets and close contact with others should make this quite clear. FWIW I went down to the 20 bed ICU today. 8 beds are open. The ventilators are all ok and unused lol. ER was slow too. Idk guys, believe what you want but there is no panic here. We will see I guess. Do you not understand the growth argument or are you just willfully ignoring it?

Imagine mocking this as "just the flu" or not taking it seriously at this point.

What specifically would cause you to change your mind that this is something more than, as you call it, a "media induced fear narrative"

Sorry- maybe I’ll ask again. - What specific mechanism is in place to stop the continued exponential spread in the United States? - If exponential spread is not stopped, do you acknowledge that the healthcare system has extremely high operational leverage and there is a non-0% risk of downside scenarios that are multiplicative? - Given the very common response from large swaths of the population that this is media-hyped & “just a cold/just the flu”, coupled with the fact that the reported infected numbers are being artificially understated, is it possible that relying on the average person to wash their hands is a risky method of risk mitigation?

Regarding skin in the game and making statements with/without bets: I’d be willing to place a moderate size position (5% of portfolio - standard position size for me) directly on the fact that a full lockdown of major US cities (let’s say NYC specifically) is inevitable and will happen (hence the frustration for getting it out of the way today before unnecessary deaths/easier containment). If you can tell me how to structure such direct exposure, let me know. But 1 year of earnings loss has effectively been priced in to the broader market already. Regarding why I wasn’t short the market prior to this even though it was known in January? I have this pesky problem where if the facts change, my mind changes. The global exponential spread is blatantly obvious at this point. If you are in the “everyone is panicking, this is people being crazy, media is hyping this up” crowd - what specifically would have to occur to change your mind? The only realistic mechanism in place that can slow this down is warm weather - otherwise the “anti-panic” crowd hasn’t provided any specific response to the question of “what specific mechanism stops the obvious exponential spread in the country?”

Why are you ignoring my prior questions? Do you think Taleb is a fool for stating a 20d quarantine needs to happen now? Why does it seem like you have a political view you are reverse engineering from when the person you are arguing hasn't mentioned 1 ounce of politics? Very bizarre. My view on the social media hysteria thesis mentioned earlier in this thread is that it is correct, but misses the final result. We are so used to hysteria and overreactions that when something w/ actual risk comes along, like pavlovs dog we go "look at them overreacting"

With all due respect... no shit? It is very obviously everywhere. I'm not sure why you are trying to quote reported #'s when the reported numbers are clearly irrelevant given undertesting. Italy had 20 cases 2 weeks ago. Look at Italy today.

To quote Nassim Taleb today- "If the word "panic" means "exaggerated" reaction, could be so at the individual level but NOT at the collective one. We MUST reduce connectivity for 20 d to avert a serious problem. We have survived for zillion years thanks to "irrational" "panics". When you put your seat belt you aren't "forecasting" a crash. When you lock your house you aren't forecasting theft..."