hobbit

I have been primarily been tracking the valuation of GMR airports which is pure airport play in India in public markets. With a worse growth rate , bad balance sheet, not so good revenue share arrangement ( Delhi airport is bad, Hyderabad is as good as Bangalore ) ; it has been trading at 25-30x the operating profit. I do not see how BIAL does any worse. https://www.screener.in/company/GMRAIRPORT/consolidated/ if you go the bottom right of the page , you can go through the quarterly PPTs and conference call transcripts. I have found them quite insightful when studying BIAL.

Can you please explain how you get to $25 if BIAL trades at valuations comparable to other airports? Given the growth BIAL should trade 25-30x EBITDA , which puts the valuation of BIAL at 6B and valuation of FIH in excess of $43.

Since 2024 will be the first year when T2 has been operational for the entire year ,do we have any insight into how much revenue and EBITDA Bangalore airport will do this year? 2023 - 194M EBITDA , 305M revenue, 37M passengers going by the projections here -- https://www.indiaratings.co.in/pressrelease/72989 https://aviationa2z.com/index.php/2024/12/24/indian-aviation-boom-airlines-airports-growth/ 2024 ( projection ) - 240M + in EBITDA, 380M+, 41M + if this actually turns out to be accurate then it would value the airport at 6B + which would imply a book value of $42+ for Fairfax India when Sydney airport was acquired it had zero growth and still the multiple paid was 20x EBITDA for the equity and 27x for the enterprise value. The debt to equity ratio is comparable for both airports with staggering growth ahead for Bangalore airport.

yah I am also confused by that , what's the need for special shareholder meeting?

For anyone interested in a deep dive in Bangalore airport https://www.icra.in/Rating/RatingDetails?CompanyId=14175&CompanyName=Bangalore International Airport Limited

IIFL finance is contemplating a demerger of its subsidiaries in the next 18 months. IIFL home finance is likely to be more than the current market cap of the entire company. https://www.moneycontrol.com/banking/may-list-iifl-home-finance-samasta-in-18-months-says-nirmal-jain-article-12827557.html

because of the uncertainty that whether it will be a merger or a forced sale at a discount to intrinsic value to a third party . Indian govt can easily make it contingent that FIH sells CSB before buying IDBI to expedite the transaction and not get it stuck in too much red tape as a merger would entail. I do not think this scenario will play out but there is a non zero probability that it might. Market hates uncertainty.

yes that's correct and its likely that CSB will get a significant premium for the merger, probably in the range of 80-100%. If not for IDBI deal overhang , CSB would be trading at much higher prices.

https://www.moneycontrol.com/news/business/rbi-lifts-restrictions-imposed-on-iifl-finances-gold-loan-business-12825738.html Restrictions lifted on IIFL finance's gold business

For IDBI acquisition , Prem has sort of hinted that there could be a structure where FFH and others invests through FIH and FIH takes management and performance fees. This will not only offset the fees paid to FFH but also generate a new revenue stream for FIH. I think it's very likely that this happens. FIH will also contribute CSB bank and some cash to get some direct equity in IDBI as well.

FIH is such a head scratcher--but I still think it will pay off barring a major macroeconomic shock to India check where GIL/GMR infra is trading. the only pure play airport stock in India. Trading at more than 35 times operating profit with negative free cash flow and ton of management issues. this is the only comp that matters wrt BIAL. Based on this BIAL's conservative value is 5-6B. https://www.screener.in/company/GMRINFRA/consolidated/ All the small companies that Fairfax India is buying is feeding into China +1 manufacturing play. Manufacturing is growing massively in India and Maxop, Jaynix and global aluminum are highly levered plays on China +1 strategy playing out . All potential 10 baggers in 10 years if you have the patience. Sanmar's Egypt is stake is valued at zero in the Book value calculation whereas they converted some debt into equity at a 800M valuation recently. https://menafn.com/1108544117/Indian-TCI-Sanmar-plans-on-establishing-USD150-m-ethylene-station-in-Egypt IIFL finance did a decent round couple of years ago for their housing finance subsidiary where ADIA put in some money. Bajaj housing finance IPO announced yesterday sent market into a frenzy which is probably why IIFL finance was also up 7% today . https://www.business-standard.com/content/press-releases-ani/iifl-home-finance-becomes-india-s-leading-affordable-housing-finance-company-with-aum-crossing-rs-35-000-crores-and-pat-increasing-by-32-per-cent-yoy-124052300851_1.html FIH intrinsic value at this point is $45+... they own crown Jewels like BIAL but rest of the portfolio is a highly levered play on manufacturing moving to India and financial industry being inherently levered to GDP growth.

terminal 2 NatGeo doc

You can read more about it at the following link. they also talk about anchorage more time to time as a comparable https://investor.gmrinfra.com

A good proxy for BIAL valuation, GMR infra has doubled in the last few months. the only publicly listed airport conglomerate in India https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/GMRINFRA.NS?p=GMRINFRA.NS

Skeletons in closet... FIH mgmt has been pitching IIFL securities as incredibly undervalued in the annual letters but market knows better https://www.moneycontrol.com/news/business/markets/sebi-stops-iifl-from-onboarding-new-clients-for-two-years-10821761.html