hobbit

IIFL finance is contemplating a demerger of its subsidiaries in the next 18 months. IIFL home finance is likely to be more than the current market cap of the entire company. https://www.moneycontrol.com/banking/may-list-iifl-home-finance-samasta-in-18-months-says-nirmal-jain-article-12827557.html

because of the uncertainty that whether it will be a merger or a forced sale at a discount to intrinsic value to a third party . Indian govt can easily make it contingent that FIH sells CSB before buying IDBI to expedite the transaction and not get it stuck in too much red tape as a merger would entail. I do not think this scenario will play out but there is a non zero probability that it might. Market hates uncertainty.

yes that's correct and its likely that CSB will get a significant premium for the merger, probably in the range of 80-100%. If not for IDBI deal overhang , CSB would be trading at much higher prices.

https://www.moneycontrol.com/news/business/rbi-lifts-restrictions-imposed-on-iifl-finances-gold-loan-business-12825738.html Restrictions lifted on IIFL finance's gold business

For IDBI acquisition , Prem has sort of hinted that there could be a structure where FFH and others invests through FIH and FIH takes management and performance fees. This will not only offset the fees paid to FFH but also generate a new revenue stream for FIH. I think it's very likely that this happens. FIH will also contribute CSB bank and some cash to get some direct equity in IDBI as well.

FIH is such a head scratcher--but I still think it will pay off barring a major macroeconomic shock to India check where GIL/GMR infra is trading. the only pure play airport stock in India. Trading at more than 35 times operating profit with negative free cash flow and ton of management issues. this is the only comp that matters wrt BIAL. Based on this BIAL's conservative value is 5-6B. https://www.screener.in/company/GMRINFRA/consolidated/ All the small companies that Fairfax India is buying is feeding into China +1 manufacturing play. Manufacturing is growing massively in India and Maxop, Jaynix and global aluminum are highly levered plays on China +1 strategy playing out . All potential 10 baggers in 10 years if you have the patience. Sanmar's Egypt is stake is valued at zero in the Book value calculation whereas they converted some debt into equity at a 800M valuation recently. https://menafn.com/1108544117/Indian-TCI-Sanmar-plans-on-establishing-USD150-m-ethylene-station-in-Egypt IIFL finance did a decent round couple of years ago for their housing finance subsidiary where ADIA put in some money. Bajaj housing finance IPO announced yesterday sent market into a frenzy which is probably why IIFL finance was also up 7% today . https://www.business-standard.com/content/press-releases-ani/iifl-home-finance-becomes-india-s-leading-affordable-housing-finance-company-with-aum-crossing-rs-35-000-crores-and-pat-increasing-by-32-per-cent-yoy-124052300851_1.html FIH intrinsic value at this point is $45+... they own crown Jewels like BIAL but rest of the portfolio is a highly levered play on manufacturing moving to India and financial industry being inherently levered to GDP growth.

terminal 2 NatGeo doc

You can read more about it at the following link. they also talk about anchorage more time to time as a comparable https://investor.gmrinfra.com

A good proxy for BIAL valuation, GMR infra has doubled in the last few months. the only publicly listed airport conglomerate in India https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/GMRINFRA.NS?p=GMRINFRA.NS

Skeletons in closet... FIH mgmt has been pitching IIFL securities as incredibly undervalued in the annual letters but market knows better https://www.moneycontrol.com/news/business/markets/sebi-stops-iifl-from-onboarding-new-clients-for-two-years-10821761.html

Hi Viking, To buy controlling stake in IDBI, you would need close to US $2.8B . FIH would likely be a part of consortium as has been indicated here . FIH can also contemplate selling stake in NSE which can easily fetch them 200M+ My understanding regarding IDBI is that there is a ton of value that can be potentially unlocked by having a credible promoter. IDBI is a whale and merger with CSB would definitely give them scale needed to retain a talent like pralay mondal. CSB has already hired some people (CXO) from IDBI in the past 12 months so this has been on cards for a while. The depressed valuations of CSB indicates the same. I would rather FIH not touch IDBI but Prem probably will not be able to resist since this is a once in a lifetime opportunity to build a top 5 bank in India. As long as FIH does not touch its BIAL stake I am fine with it . Given the incredible aviation growth in India I would be surprised if BIAL is not worth more than $5B whenever it IPOs in the next 12 months. Next year is the election year in India so FIH might try to push the IPO through before that if markets are favorable.

FIH going for IDBI https://www.businesstoday.in/industry/banks/story/rbi-begins-evaluating-potential-bidders-including-kotak-mahindra-bank-csb-for-idbi-bank-report-377262-2023-04-13

https://www.afr.com/world/asia/iphone-maker-plans-1b-india-plant-in-shift-from-china-20230303-p5cp9f This should be a huge positive for BIAL

Fairfax has put in a bid for IDBI bank which will be their biggest bet in India so far. Unsure regarding how it will be structured wrt FFH or FIH. There is also speculation that Fairfax may form a consortium with Emirates bank

tidefall capital on Fairfax India. people are beginning to take notice https://drive.google.com/file/d/1Hx6Xr-tM9Mx3JIMPUxYayyELiAXyniTs/view