maxthetrade
-
Posts
363 -
Joined
Content Type
Profiles
Forums
Events
Posts posted by maxthetrade
-
-
Added to FFH, bought KMX and wrote some BRK puts.
-
Belgium and France, agree with Spek, Belgium is really nice!
Omaha Beach
My niece really likes Crepes ;-)
-
They guy is a complete idiot. Voters will get what they deserve.
-
In 2000 I finished university and made my first million (back then in DEM!). After a couple of years with performance in the twenties I made a bit over 100% in 2000, my best year ever so far. A bit cocksure I decided to retire early
. The next few years weren't pleasant because of USD devaluation. Going into the great recession I was too optimistic and bought too early in 08. Had to sell some stock in early 09 to prevent a margin call. It was a good lessen though. I switched to LEAPS and that worked out pretty well. Since then I invested more conservatively, you don't have to risk what you need for what you don't need.
All in all it has worked out pretty satisfactory and I plan to move to a tax heaven with better weather somtime during the next couple of years. Germany today is not the country I grew up in, it sucks. The generation of woke idiots has arrived and is ruining the country. Fortunately there are still some decent alternatives.
-
3 hours ago, gfp said:
I wonder if an insurer who writes cyber coverage also buys cyber coverage for themselves
Cyber coverage is one area that really makes me nervous, especially at Allied World. I don't think this risk can be modeled. At least they have a 25mm cap.
-
On 8/9/2022 at 2:15 PM, bearprowler6 said:
More news...this time concerning Recipe Unlimited:
Geez, I hoped they were done buying crappy businesses.
-
Fascinating article about a teenager hacker: https://www.rollingstone.com/culture/culture-features/crypto-heist-teenage-hacker-ellis-pinsky-1367400/
-
The World's Fastest Indian is a great, very underappreciated movie. I highly recommend it if you haven't seen it.
-
3 hours ago, james22 said:
Every reliable poll of European newsrooms from Germany to the Netherlands show that climate change is a much more important topic for journalists than it is for ordinary people.
https://www.newsweek.com/popular-uprising-against-elites-has-gone-global-opinion-1722653
I couldn't agree more with this:
"There is a malaise in the West currently, where ideological goals are pursued at the expense of the lower middle and working classes. Whether it's truckers in Canada, farmers in the Netherlands, oil and gas companies in the United States, ideology, not science or hard evidence, is dominating the agenda, gratifying the elites while immiserating the working class.
Ultimately, there is a risk that climate policies will do to Europe what Marxism did to Latin America. A continent with all the conditions for widespread prosperity and a healthy environment will impoverish and ruin itself for ideological reasons.
In the end, both the people and the climate will be worse off."
-
Michlin's indestructible tires look pretty, interesting. That would finally be a real innovation in the tire industry.
-
15 hours ago, Viking said:
- or is it quite simple: 10% inflation and close to zero interest rates for a couple of years.. and poof… you partially solved your too much debt problems (via financial repression).
Lagarde is a politician, she will do whatever it takes to save the Euro. The southern countries including France need low rates. My guess is that she will try to do exactly what you described. If the pressure from the nothern countries becomes too much she may increase rates and buy bonds of the southern countries.
-
11 minutes ago, Parsad said:
Is it 1999/2000 or 2008/2009 cheap...not even close.
In 2000 BRK traded down to about BV. Most recent BV was $230, so it's not there yet but certainly on the cheaper side.
-
1 minute ago, Parsad said:
Did anyone in their right mind think that the pet insurance business owned by Fairfax was worth $1.4B? I certainly didn't! Cheers!
It's indeed amazing. One has to wonder whether there are other hidden gems.
-
12 hours ago, boilermaker75 said:
On Friday, June 10, I bought them back and I wrote July 8 expiration 305-strikes for the 305 strikes and June 24 expiration 300-strikes for the 302.5-strikes.
Thanks!
-
On 6/9/2022 at 12:55 PM, boilermaker75 said:
I wrote June 10 expiration 302.5 and 305 puts yesterday.
I'm curious, what did you do with this position?
-
22 hours ago, Spekulatius said:
Why choose when you can combine the two - it’s called Cuba Libre.
And you can buy it soon premixed in a can! https://www.cnbc.com/2022/06/13/jack-and-coke-in-a-can-coca-cola-and-brown-forman-team-up-for-new-drink.html
Seriously, I don't have any doubts that alcohol is way worse for your health than sugar, alcohol is a known carcinogen.
-
8 minutes ago, Gregmal said:
I have found though, as the market got crazy for a while, one of the best value bourbons is Angels Envy. $45 and probably better than most bottles double that price.
Can get it for €60 over here, will definitely give it a try!
-
2 hours ago, Gregmal said:
Q42021/Q1 22 it was virtually impossible to get certain bourbons. Blantons was a ghost and if found, a $200 bottle.
A good friend of mine is a Bourbon fan, so I bought him a bottle of Blantons for his 50th birthday two years ago, I paid ~100 €. Today the best offer I could find is at €148.
-
Just had a Sherry 'Tradición Pedro Ximénez »V.O.S. 20 Años' for the first time. Very sweet with subtle notes of Walnut and dried fruits. Excellent with cheese, deserts or poured over walnut icecream.
-
Don't know if that was a macro bet, interest rates were so low that the opportunity cost of sitting on a pile of cash was pretty low and the risk of losses from owning bonds pretty high. Hard to tell how much money they'll make from this, depends on how high interest rates go and when they decide to move. At this price it's just gravy, the downside is pretty well protected and upside will take care of itself.
BTW, the transcript of the call is now availble on SA: https://seekingalpha.com/article/4505284-fairfax-financial-holdings-limiteds-frfhf-ceo-prem-watsa-on-q1-2022-results-earnings-call
-
4 hours ago, Viking said:
Will the use of a tactical nuclear weapon result i NATO actually joining the fight? I doubt it. Is ‘saving’ Ukraine worth risk of nuclear escalation to rest of Europe? Probably not. If this is Putin’s calculus then tactical nukes are likely on the table for Russia.
As i have been saying since Russia invaded Ukraine, the key player is China. If they are ok with Russia using a tactical nuke then we likely have our answer. India’s response would also be important.
Exactly! You guys really think that the US would risk total nuclear war to protect some east European country? No way. The key player is China, the've probably told Putin that they don't care about Ukraine but that nukes are off limit if Russia wants their support.
-
1 hour ago, Viking said:
Hard to see how the economic situation in Europe does not get much worse as the year progresses and Putin’s energy leverage increases. It really is crazy how many super important things are being juggled by the global economy right now…
I agree, hard to see how Europe can avoid a recession. My heating gas bill went from 1.6k to 6.8k/year. I was able to drop it to 4.9k by switching my gas provider which most people here don't do. Electricity bill doubled to 1.6k. Filling the tank costs 25% more. Cost of groceries is up by 10-20%, e.g. I used to pay €15 for 1kg of red shrimp, now 20€. Only japanese Wagyu and french artisane cheese aren't more expensive, probably because they were ridiculously expensive already
P.S. if things get crazy later this year, e.g. rationing of gas etc. I may move for some time to a nice place in the south or the US. Most people can't of course.
-
2 minutes ago, Viking said:
Q1 results for Fairfax will be super interesting:
1.) CR? Can they deliver a CR at 94 or even lower?
2.) cash and short term investments balance? Are they re-investing some of this at higher yields?
ad 1. very possible
ad 2. I doubt it
-
35 minutes ago, Viking said:
i did sell 1/3 of my position today to lock in some gains. I was way overweight and now i am back to what i consider a more normal core weighting. As we have all learned over the past 18 months Fairfax’s stock price often moves in rapid 20% swings (up and down). Getting back to a more normal size position will let me buy stock should we see another big sell off.
What do you consider a 'normal size position'? I'm still way overweight @ 25%. In some smaller accounts up to a 50% weighting.
Some things I've done recently: selling KMX and MMM naked puts,. Selling ATCO calls and buying common shares yesterday.
Have We Hit The Top?
in General Discussion
Posted
All this macro stuff is way too hard for me. Just look at Japan, I'd never had guessed that they can do what they have done without serious consequences. I'd have lost my shirt if I had bet on what I thought would happen. So much easier to buy cheap companies unless you are Wabuffo.
The one macro bet I really nailed is betting against the EUR, perhaps I'm biased because I see all the crap happening here but I think the eurozone is doomed, a complete dysfunctinal disaster.