maxthetrade
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Posts posted by maxthetrade
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2 minutes ago, Viking said:
At the AGM I asked Prem what lessons Fairfax had learned from the lost decade for shareholders (2010-2020). And had any processes changed within Fairfax to make sure the same TYPES of mistakes are not made again. I got a non-answer. Which of course WAS an answer.
I remember that one, was very disapointed by the answer too!
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6 hours ago, Sweet said:
my next question was where do you get it. Never tried wagyu must see if I can get some. It’s very healthy I understand
Well I wouldn't go so far to label japanese Wagyu health food but it's probably a little bit healthier because of the higher content of omega 3 fatty acids. The fat really melts in your hands. But it's very rich, you really don't want to eat much more than say 200g.
In the US you can get it from Grand Western Steaks: https://grandwesternsteaks.com/wagyu.html
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13 minutes ago, Sweet said:
Is Kobe wagyu? Where do you get it from?
Yes it's certified Kobe A5 Wagyu with BMS 10-12+. That beeing said, Kagoshima, Myiazaki, Nakamoto etc. japanese Wagyu is of similar quality and often a much better deal. I have a friend who has an import license and I buy it at wholesale price from him.
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I like the deal, looks very solid, much better than some crazy macro bet!
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10 minutes ago, Parsad said:
Also getting residency status in Monaco is relatively easy as long as you can put like $500K Euros
That's correct, €500k securities at a local bank. I'm thinking a lot about moving there, better weather and food than in Germany and no income tax!!
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12 minutes ago, Parsad said:
Teach me master! I want Wagyu and only want to spend $60K a year.
Max are you married? Do you have kids? I'm guessing probably married, but no kids.
Well, I don't have kids and I'm not married, but my sister and her husband have three kids and enjoy a lifestyle similar to mine. They are both M.D.'s. Of course they have to drive a shitty car with three kids 
I'm very price sensitive and buy my meat, wine etc. at wholesale prices, e.g. I pay e.g. ~140€/kg Kobe Tri Tip, ~350€/kg Kobe tenderloin. Of course I don't eat that every day but that's not because of the price but for health reasons... You can buy some really excellent italian or portugese wine for ~20-25 bucks per bottle! Much better than french wine at four times the price!
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20 minutes ago, gfp said:
Well you didn't live on less than 60k the year you bought the X3M.
Of course not but cost per year is around 5-6k not counting opportunity cost which is probably the biggest cost.
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23 minutes ago, thepupil said:
do you have a family? is the 60K pre or post tax?
I don't have family, the 60k is post tax, I pay ~40% on non investment income.
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12 hours ago, Gregmal said:
What if you wanna live in Monaco or on Fischer Island?
You might be surprised but with the exception of rent/real estate it's not very expensive. If you're comfortable living in a small appartment (~€3k/month) your tax savings will easily pay for everything!
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What an interesting thread! I live in a small town in Germany and most of you would be shocked how little I spend and still, I eat japanese Wagyu, drink good wine, have nice vacations, drive a X3M, etc. all on <60k/year. I really can't think of much that i'd like to do but don't do because of monetary considerations. Money just keeps piling up. The one thing that comes to mind is that I'd like to travel by NetJets, I really hate the security shit and lines at airports. And one day when I'm really pissed I'll sign up
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Allstate joins State Farm not writing new business in California: Allstate has stopped writing new homeowner, condominium and commercial insurance policies in California, the company confirmed to The Chronicle.
https://www.sfchronicle.com/california/article/insurance-allstate-fires-18130622.php
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Intrinsic Value is a somewhat gibberish concept. If you'd know future cash flows with 100% certainty it would make sense for a business to trade at the sum of discounted future cash flow but no one really knows. Buffett repeatedly said he wants to trade Berkshire at a price so that owners get the same result as the business (paraphrased). With that yardstick in mind I think it makes sense for FFH to trade around BV until they have shown over several cycles that they can underwrite sub 100 on average. Depending n your assumptions 1.0-1.2BV is pobably a very reasonable range for fair value.
BTW, I'm not convinced that FFH really can deliver 15% ROE over a full cycle but we'll see... if they can 1.8BV would certainly be a reasonable valuation.
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On 5/12/2023 at 9:02 PM, Viking said:
I just added to my overweight position in Fairfax.
Added to my position in the last trading hour as well. The story keeps getting better and the stock is still reasonably cheap. I hope it stays around current levels for the next week because I'll have to invest funds in a new account next week.
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11 hours ago, Parsad said:
Max, I'm incredibly jealous! Looks like an amazing 2 weeks. Cheers!
Nothing beets spending some quality time with good friends! Tuscany is fantastic, it was my third visit but my first in spring. Parsad, if you get the chance to go there just do it, you won't regret!
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A couple more pictures.
Ayrton Senna Memorial in Imola
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I spent the last two weeks with a couple of friends in Tuscany, certainly one of the most beautiful places on earth and great food & wine of course
Livorno
InCarne in Livorno, highly recommended!
Shop in San Gimignano
Pizza from the Mercato Central in Florence. Almost as good as in Napoli.
Siena
San Gimignano
Ristoro di Lamole, one of the best Restaurant experiences I've ever had! Fantastic view, truly excellent food, wine and service.
Paccheri filled with porcini and truffle.
Bistecca Fiorentina of course...
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18 hours ago, Dynamic said:
I suspect that Ted may well have initiated the original Apple position in 2016 at around $25 (split adjusted) with earnings yield in the region of 9-10.5% (depending if you back out cash), some of which was held by various Employee Pensions. Once Warren understood the franchise. I suspect that he increased it dramatically to the enormous position it has grown into today.
That was my impression too after reading an intwerview with Ted in the Handelsblatt a couple of years ago.
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2 hours ago, boilermaker75 said:
Writing OXY 57-strike, March 24 expiration puts, $0.31 per share.
Same here.
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37 minutes ago, Viking said:
Fairfax has a very good long term track record in managing its fixed income portfolio. Perfect? No, of course not. Am i happy with how they are positioned as we begin 2023? Yes.
I agree. If there is one area where I really trust the guys at Fairfax then it is how they mange the fixed income portfolio. They have an excellent track record and expecting perfection is crazy. I'm also beginning to trust their underwriting more. If they stay on this path and don't revert to the old ways of making macro bets and buying crappy value traps/turnarounds the next couple of years should be pretty good.
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14 hours ago, Munger_Disciple said:
t is Warren's. Too big to be Ted/Todd's.
Probably. Most likely gfp is right and it was sold to harvest a tax loss.
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18 minutes ago, Munger_Disciple said:
Quick exit from TSM is a surprise.
Yep would love to know his thinking. Or was it a Ted/Todd position?
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Completely agree! I read Lynch's books before I ever heard about Buffett or Graham and it was a real eye opener to me. Thinking about it I probably first read about Buffett in one of Lynch's books when he said something to the effect that Buffett does what he did but buys the whole company. This was all in the pre internet days in the early nineties. It was very difficult to even get annual reports of US companies in Germany...
Definitely one of my heroes!
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46 minutes ago, dealraker said:
Have added about 10,000 shares of BAC in the last few weeks. Doubt I've had any co-conspirators on these "deals"!
Added some BAC and LEAPS as well.
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FWIW, according to J.P.Morgans 'Guide to the Markets' CAPE was 27.96 at the end of the years and the 25 year average was 27.93.
Historic Milestone
in Fairfax Financial
Posted
With improved liquidity options should get available. Imagine what a homerun the last two years would have been with some calls thrown in! Could have been a replay of 2008 when many here bought calls.