maxthetrade
-
Posts
363 -
Joined
Content Type
Profiles
Forums
Events
Posts posted by maxthetrade
-
-
Thank you all for your comments and thoughts! I was travelling in Rome last week and couldn't listen to the virtual meeting, is there a way to still access the audio feed?
Â
Â
-
5 hours ago, gfp said:
Just a hunch that bad fuel caused the problems in the first place
Â
This will get interesting!
-
Some more details:
Â
Lawyers Gear Up for Swift Start in Legal Fight Over Baltimore BridgeÂ
The National Transportation Safety Board said the investigation to establish the cause of the collision could take up to two years. Photo: Peter Knudson/NTSB/Reuters The first shot in the legal fight over who will pay for the damage and loss from the collapse of the Francis Scott Key Bridge will likely occur in the next few days in a Baltimore courtroom, insurance academics said. The Singaporean owner of the cargo ship that took down the bridge is expected to invoke a law dating back to the 19th century that limits the liability of shipsâ owners, according to Lawrence Brennan , a law professor at Fordham University in New York. The law is similar to one used by the Titanicâs owners after that âunsinkableâ liner hit an iceberg. This Limitation of Liability Act law caps the liability of the cargo shipâs ownersâand their several insurersâat the value of the goods the ship was carrying and the value of the ship itself. A representative of the shipâs owner, Grace Ocean, didnât respond to a request for comment. The fight, maritime lawyers say, could run as long as a decade. âIt will be one of the most contentious marine insurance cases in recent decades,â said Brennan, the law professor and a retired captain in the U.S. Navy. While the lawyers fight, most claims will likely get paid by the insurers, including money for the bridgeâs reconstruction. Then they will duke it out among themselves. Other claims might take longer, including those by the families of the people killed in the crash . Other big sources of claims include the loss of revenue for the port, for the vessels now stuck inside it, and for businesses affected by the resulting supply-chain snarl-ups. The bridge part of this web of claims may be the simplest to resolve. The structure cost some $60 million to build in 1977, which is around $300 million today when adjusted for inflation. The bridge is covered by the state of Marylandâs insurance. The policy, covering property damage and business interruption for bridges and tunnels, pays up to $350 million, documents show. The state, with its insurers in support, will likely be among many claimants that sue the Singaporean owner of the giant cargo ship that struck the bridge , seeking to recover their losses. That ship, the Dali, has coverage through a specialized property and indemnity insurer, the Britannia P&I club. It said it is âworking closely with the ship manager and relevant authorities to establish the facts and to help ensure that this situation is dealt with quickly and professionally.â Britannia is one of a dozen protection and indemnity, or P&I, clubs, which between them insure around 90% of the worldâs oceangoing tonnage. Each club, owned by shipowners, operates independently. But the clubs pool resources to buy reinsurance, allowing them to pass on much of the risk they underwrite. That reinsurance covers up to $3.1 billion per ship, according to ratings firm AM Best. This generous reinsurance safety net is led by French insurer Axa , according to people familiar with the matter, but involves in total around 80 insurers from across the globe. That means, despite a likely eye-popping overall claim, the payout is âunlikely to be significant for individual reinsurers since it will be spread across so many,â said Brandan Holmes , an official at ratings firm Moodyâs. Not all claims springing from the incident will be covered by the shipâs insurance agreements. The bridge collapse is a significant blow for a marine insurance market already hit by the costs of the recent Red Sea attacks . Increased rates and new restrictions on coverage are expected to follow. âThis probably will be one of the biggest marine losses in history,â John Neal , chief executive of the Lloydâs of London insurance marketplace, said Thursday. âIt clearly will have an impact on cover and premium.â The insured losses could total between $2 billion and $4 billion, surpassing the Costa Concordia catastrophe , ratings firm Morningstar DBRS said. The bridge collapse will likely affect the operations of scores of importers, exporters and other companies that use the port. Many will likely find the event isnât covered by their businessinterruption insurance, according to Robert Merkin , a law professor at the University of Reading. âOnly some policies will cover thisâit depends on the wording,â Merkin said. Business-interruption insurance is designed primarily to cover damage to the companyâs own premises, although some policies have extensions that might cover external events, such as the bridge collapse, he added. Heather Gillers contributed to this article. Write to Jean Eaglesham at Jean.Eaglesham@wsj.com
-
I read the book as a teenager way back in the late eighties, loved it. Noble House and Tai-Pan were great reads as well!Â
-
On 2/21/2024 at 5:25 AM, gfp said:
Tax considerations can save you from a lot of foolishness in this game if you aren't naturally wired right for the long holds.
Â
True! I have a couple of A shares I bought near the very lows in 2000. They are grandfathered under german tax law and gains are forever tax free. I don't plan to sell any of them as long as Berkshire can grow BV at a halfway decent rate. If the shares get a little ahead of the business like now I sell OTM calls. If I can achieve an (almost) tax free return of 10% in the future by doing this I'm perfectly happy.
Â
-
On 2/1/2024 at 11:39 PM, Spekulatius said:
regarding APD - did you see the very marginal dividend increase? Itâs only a bit more than 1% and traditionally, APD raised their dividend by 10% annually.
Â
Great call! As you mentioned this is a pretty decent business, at the right price I'd like to own a chunk for the long term.
-
A very sad day. He will be dearly missed.
-
7 hours ago, John Hjorth said:
What do you think?Â
Â
A fool an his money will soon be parted.
-
On 8/21/2023 at 7:31 PM, Vish_ram said:
I did the 12 mile hike to see the new volcano Litli Hrutur. Just amazing.
Â
That was worth the 12 miles, very cool!
-
-
Greg, the main problem with modern democracies is that most people are too dumb to understand our modern fast changing complex world and have absolutely no understanding of economics. They're scared by some bullshit they are told by some demagogue and can't think through it by themself.Â
When I was in school they told us computers would destroy jobs, acid rain (remember that one??) would destroy our forests and nuclear waste would kill all of us if the ozone hole didn't finish us earlier. Guess what, computers created lots of jobs and increased productivity, we installed flue gas desulfurization units, replaced chlorofluorcarbons and nuclear waste will probably be a precious resource someday.Â
-
BTW, hilarious video by Jan Böhmermann back from the years of the Euro crisis when Varoufakis was finance minister of Greece:
Â
Â
-
9 hours ago, Luca said:
I listen to Yanis Varoufakis sometimes (ex finance minister greece) and although I disagree with his proposed solutions (leaving capitalism), this sort of "stagnated capitalism" with trillions of euros that are not invested, no growth for majority, increasing concentration of companies, widening wealth inequality, separation of financial markets and real economy (SP 500 booming while median person not seeing anything) rings a bell here.Â
Â
I couldn't diasagree more. Varoufakis is a complete idiot of the worst kind. Just look how well Greece has done without his crappy socialist ideas. What Europe and the western world needs is less regulation and red tape, less Nanny State and more entrepreneurism!
-
6 hours ago, Haryana said:
They would know more option to raise cash than we could imagine. Could we imagine FFH TRS?
Â
I think the TRS is settled on a quaterly basis, it would be a drag on liquidity if they run into trouble and the stock goes down. Cash is definitely running low and I would like to see a somewhat higher cash level too, but I would prefer if they don't increase leverage.Â
-
Kamados are very versatile and efficient, but nothing magic about them. I use a really cheap pellet smoker that was for sale at Aldi for âŹ99,- (regular price 299,-). It makes perfect brisket, short ribs etc. Meat quality and some knowledge is WAY more important for the end result.
Personally I wouldn't pay up for that particular brand, Metro offers from time to time an excellent Kamado at a very reasonable price. Â
-
On 1/19/2023 at 4:51 PM, gfp said:
Â
Awesome. Â We have a bunch of excavators in my family (not me personally) - the newest is a "midi" Takeuchi which is a really nice one. Â The Takeuchi can dig 14 feet down! Â Is your 60hp considered a "mini" or a "midi?"
Â
I truly admire the guys who have mastered operating these monsters. Last year my brother in law had rented a midi excavator for a guy to landscape his garden. On one weekend we played around with the thing and it was a lot of fun but it took us hours before we could perform something useful, and even then it took us a lot of time. Â
-
21 minutes ago, Luca said:
Is tax loss carry forward not the base case?Â
Â
Huh, why sould that be the case? Most trading GmbH's are new and hence have no tax loss carry forward from prior activities.
-
Another strategy is to buy back the put close to expiration if it's underwater or immediatly selling the underlying if it gets put to you and simultaneously selling puts with a longer expiration date and often lower strike price. As long you're pretty certain that the price will rise sometime in the future this is a nice strategy.Â
-
One other disadvantage that I've forgotten to mention is that if you later decide to move to say the Bahamas, Monaco, Cyprus etc. you are subject to the 'Wegzugsbesteuerung' if you own more than 1% of a company. This is probably not the case for most exchange traded stocks unless you own some micro caps or you're dealing with large sums.
I agree with frommi, I wouldn't even think about it unless you're investing at least two millions and young or trade a lot of derivatives.
If you have a GmbH with a tax loss carry forward then things get a lot more interesting! Â
Â
-
That's what we are using in the family office I'm working for. One other big advantage of a trading GmbH is that you can deduct derivative losses without the pesky annual 20k limit that applies to individuals. The 1.465% taxrate only applies to stocks, derivative gains are taxed at the corporate tax rate.
Setting up an corporate account is a real PIA though. One other disadvantage is that you are automatically deemed a professional data user and have to pay a higher price for realtime quotes ($125/month at IB).Â
Of course you can put a lot of costs in the GmbH like car, phone, IT, travel expenses etc.
-
16 minutes ago, Munger_Disciple said:
If one invested in Fairfax on 1/1/1999 and kept it until 6/30/2023 for example, the CAGR after 24.5 years is only 4.54%. On the other hand, if you invested in FFH on 1/1/2003 and kept it till 6/30/23, CAGR jumps to 13.4% over the 20.5 year period.Â
Â
Yes, the price you pay is important! I still own some shares that I bought in 2003 in a tax free account. I can't sell them without loosing the tax free status so I'll hold them as long as I see an reasonable future return compared to other after tax opportunities.
-
13 hours ago, Viking said:
@UKÂ i will give you a portfolio update as of today. But please note, i am ok with concentrated positions. This strategy has worked well for me for +20 years but it is not for everyone. Please note, I might decide to change my position tomorrow and i will not provide an update. I have no desire to provide daily, weekly or monthly portfolio updates. Because it messes with my head too much (i start to feel responsible for everyone else). People need to do their own research. And come to their own conclusions. And not get overly influenced by what some anonymous blogger is posting.Â
ÂHaving got that out of the way, Fairfax has been may largest position since late 2020. âThe storyâ at the company continues to improve every quarter. As a result, despite the incredible run-up, i think the stock is still dirt cheap. So i continue to hold a concentrated position. I consider 30% to be a minimum position for me today (given what i know today). Currently i am at a 45% weighting. And I move around quite a bit (around the edges).Â
ÂI am also 35% cash today. The remainder is split pretty evenly between 3 other buckets: oil, banks and Canadian high yielding dividend stocks. I move around i these holdings quite a bit.
âââââIf you look at most successful investors most of their outperformance was the result of only a couple of holdings that performed spectacularly well over 5 or 10 years.Â
ÂMy view is these turbocharged opportunities only come along every couple of years (something you understand very well that is dirt cheap with catalysts). So when you find one you have to be patient and ride it for as long as possible. Because the next one might be years away.
ÂMy fear right now with Fairfax isnât holding too much⊠it is holding too little. My fear is lightening up (locking in big gains) and then having the stock take off higher on me.
ÂMy biggest mistake investing is selling my big winners too early. Selling because they went up a lot. And then they kept going higher⊠My mistake was selling using price as my guide. So i am trying to be more patient in situations where the fundamentals continue to improve - like the situation with Fairfax today.
âââââ
My average return over the past 20 years is 19% per year. Over that 20 year span i have had two down years (of -4% each year). So my strategy works for me. I also spend LOTS of time on investing⊠because i really enjoy it.
ÂPeople need to figure out their own strategy. Something that fits their knowledge, emotional make-up, situation, interest, time etc. Â There are no short cuts.Â
Â
Awesome post Viking! Like you I'm more concerned that I don't own enough FFH.
-
On 6/6/2023 at 5:08 PM, Blugolds11 said:
Costco offers some of the best of the best wagyu beef. Wagyu typically refers to a specific breed of cow from Japan and has a reputation for having some of the most flavorful, marbled beef in the world. It's also known for being the most expensiveâstarting at around $250 per pound.
The name is typically misused by imitators trying to hop on the bandwagon, but Costco's Wagyu is the real deal. They import their A5 Wagyu (the highest quality distinction available) from the Kagoshima Prefecture in Japan. They offer several different cuts at steep discounts. For example, their thinly sliced striploin is sold for $99.99 a pound, less than half the price at specialty butcher shops
Â
Looks like it's the real deal, amazing price!Â
Â
-
I really don't understand this obsession with where the markt goes. There are almost always some cheap stocks where you can make a killing. VTS is almost a double for me, FFH is up ~25% YTD, KMX is up ~30% YTD. Recently I loaded up on USB and DG (I'm surprised there's no discussion of this name). I couldn't care less what the indices do.
How old are you?
in General Discussion
Posted
Well, I turned 53 yesterday too. We had one hell of a nice evening with way too much alcohol and saturated fat in the form of Wagyu tenderloin, Shizo Miso Hollandaise and really fantastic Primitivo wine. And I don't regret one gram of fat and only the last few grams of alcoholÂ