Uccmal

Perhaps I should add back FBK and hold both, but I'm not convinced. Am I missing the forest for the trees? (sorry about that one Probably not. I haven't looked at Merc enough so far. But you know a bird in hand is worth two in the bush.... ok.. My thinking was as above that the value of FBK may just be starting to get realized. Too often I have exited stocks too early. As per John Neff I have no problem leaving something for the next person but I also want to realize the full potential of my work efforts. I have been observing via my holdings and past holdings that those that turn keep on getting better as the years roll on, whereas those that dont just languish forever holding promise but never delivering. Dreman covers this in his book - better researcher than investor. Examples in the first group: Sino Forest, Russell Metals, Fairfax, Seaspan From the Second Group: Jean Coutu, Kingsway Financial, Probably both MERC and FBK fall into the first group provided the price of pulp doesn't have adeep plunge.

And we're still wrong ~40% of the time ... Yes

Canadian Situation - why I dont think there is an extreme situation. Last Spring - 2010 - we started a large reno on our house. My Wife and I went to the local bank to get a HELOC to finance the whole thing. I didn't want to dig into the investment money too much since my chances of exceeding a 6.0% after tax hurdle is pretty good. Anyway, we have an uninterrupted record of payment on the existing house going back 7 years. I could have posted non home equity collateral to cover the whole amount borrowed - 220k - no dice. The money borrowed plus the mortgage was calculated to come to 80% of the low ball assessed value of the house - pre reno. In addition: - Both of our FICO scores were reviewed: both in the mid 800s - We both had to provide paystubs and proof of employment - both of us have good jobs by any standard - my Wife's is much better. - Proof of Home Insurance - We had to sign multiple pieces of paper that we were declining mortgage insurance. - Records of our mortgage - with a different lender The hoops we went through were so extreme that I was nearly ready to give up and just pay for it out of my margin account. I truly dont know where anyone would get a mortgage in Canada that had less requirements at this time. The one subprime lender I am aware of here is in runoff - Xceed. For the factors mentioned by other posters and my own experience I dont think there is a bubble in Canadian Housing. There are obviously isolated pockets of high prices such as Vancouver but that is partly situational - anyone who knows Vancouver at all or perhaps lives there knows why prices stay high. The whole city is sardined between a mountain range and the Ocean. It is more akin to Hong Kong or Macau. As for Real Estate investing anywhere I concur with most comments above. The one advantage with Real Estate is that you can use leverage which will work really well in times of rising prices and inflation. Everything else I see is a disadvantage: - local knowledge required - borrowing issues - maintenance and upkeep - lack of financial mobility - blah, blah, blah. And after all that my 7 year old has decided he wants to sleep with his toddler sister, so we didn't need the extra room anyways. :P

Not to be difficult Myth but I watched the whole piece and the Forbes blogger took it all out of context. The analyst Travis Mccourt has a well developed and well researched thesis, he has just been wrong so far. Generally though anyone trying to predict a stock's behaviour is more often wrong than right. Too many variables in the human world. That is the beauty of what we do. We (Grahamites) make no attempt to predict where a company may end up. We look at existing information and identify what is undervalued at the present time.

I am sure most of you have read Dreman's "contrarian investment strategies". The part that always hits home with me is where stocks keep on outperforming for 5 years after they have started to rebound from a low PE/low P/B/low P/cf. Something to do with surviving through a crisis and paring down expenses, and recapping.

Whoa Fellows! Now dont go selling all your fbk before you have realized some real gains here. i.e. I still hold CFX (about 25% fbk size) and am not selling any more right now. They paid their regular payout and a special dividend at Christmas and this pulp market will keep the cash flowing in the door, and right out the door into shareholders pockets. FBK at the end of Q1/2011: - we know some managers have been buying stock. - they are getting analyst attention - and upgrades even. - they have generated a minimum of another 10 M of cash this Q - possibly more since they are reducing carrying costs as they go. - very possible that they may be running close to debt and debenture free by year end. - pulp prices are stable to rising? - management may be making strides in profitizing the US mills. - the energy program is not finished. - the tendency was for people to buy today with the upgrade - I sold 2000 shares at 1.65 grudgingly ~ 2.5% total Now you all know I have been very critical of this company but I am JUST STARTING to see the light here. There is no reason as things get steadily repaired that this stock wont be worth above $6.00 one day in the not too distant future. All things said I will look into Merc in more detail as an additional holding not as a replacement.

Neils, I cant answer your questions specifically. I have experienced the following: I have held FFh in a US account, and sold shares out of this account since they delisted from the NYSE. That would be trades on the pink sheets. I have also transferred shares from my Us margin account to my Canadian Margin account with no fees. I am thinking that there is no actual assignment of a specified number of FFh shares to pink sheets. FWIW.

That sounds good God, I mean Myth.... Right now I am struggling with the argument that it will take too long to develop and implement alternatives. The first contolled nuclear pile was in 1942 and the first commercial Nuclear reactor was operational in 1954. Surely, with enough political will you could simultaneously reduce fossil fuel usage for power and reduce nuclear usage, and increase the amount of available power through a mix of available alternatives. As for reactors that use spent fuel the Terrawave project looks to be 15 years away - Nuclear Fusion - anyone. I was reading today about some US companies that are utilitizing solar in the US west. They provide the funding, clear all the permit hurdles for you, and install the PVs on your roof. You pay them a monthly fee, forever, for the power at rates comparable to PG&E. Now I dont see this working very well in Canada or the US north but that is what natural gas is for.

I would say I used to be pro nuke. I would say now that I am an educated anti-nuke. I agree with Partner24 in his assessment that we will look back one day and wonder what we were thinking. Nuclear Fission is a great source of power, a source that keeps on giving. Every reactor on Earth has swimming pools of spent fuel rods. Call it long term job security for the lucky few. Unless we stumble upon an effective way to break down or further degrade this product, every Nuclear Reactor on Earth is going to have to maintain its present rate of safety for the foreseaable human future. This means protecting the public from these spent fuel rods and protecting the fuel rods from those who need fissionable material for other purposes. I am not thinking that anyone has worked up a long term risk or cost analysis of this proposition. With each passing year the probability of an accident with spent fuel, or aging reactors, or partially decommissioned reactors will approach 1, or 100%, if you like. In addition, the probability of a 'rogue' state obtaining this fuel for usage as a dirty bomb, or an outright nuke will increase toward 100%. I am guessing that the costs of maintaining all of this will eventually run into the Trillions of dollars. Alot of other 'cleaner' power could be developed for those sums of money.

29 - The poll is interesting but not very useful. For example: I have held a few companies is varying amounts for over 3 years Mtl, Rus, FFH, Arx. During and after the crash I bought a few companies I always wanted as long term holds such as Manulife, GE, PWF. Others I started with small positions and came to like them more over time as their respective situations have improved notably SSW, fbk, pd, akt.a, wfc.ws, bac.ws.a. Some i am in a slow process of reducing as they reach high values cfx, cfp. Then there are a few other get to know positions, and one 100 share position on a O&G company trading at 0.35. Looking at the sheer number of companies doesn't really tell anyone what goes on. Except for the most recent purchases I have gotten to know most of these companies over years.

Yes, I distinctly remember Ross Healy recommending this stock when it was in the low 20s. I held it until after their first real bad quarter and managed to get out with a slight profit. Lucky me - those quarters kept coming and coming.

Luck? How to explain Walter Schloss then? Or John Neff? or FFH's 25 year equity records? Luck, or careful behavioural and statistical analysis combined with luck.

One way or the other Francis eats his own cooking, either directly, or through his holdings in Fairfax. Fairfax being the largest shareholder of Chou funds and Chou being one of the larger individual shareholders of FFH with 62000 shares. If your broker doesn't offer Chou funds get a second broker. When friends ask me to manage money for them or give them suggestions Chou is the only one I recommend. Sorry Sanj, the amounts are too small for you to bother with the paperwork...

Millions of Democrats would move to Canada...

Viking, If you are looking at Uranium, you can surely do better than Cameco. That gang cant manage their way out of a paper bag. Some former government concerns do well after privatization, some dont. Cameco hasn't. It's dead money as far as the eye can see. This isn't going to help one bit. Have a look at their stock chart. I have been buying land based oil drillers/service companies for a long time now. This past week was one of those dips to buy on. PD, AKT.a, MTL. IMHO, as Myth says they will be the beneficiaries of all this.

I have decided to withdraw from further nuclear safety discussions. I am obviously far too naive on my assumptions about human nature:o http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-03-17/japan-s-nuclear-disaster-caps-decades-of-faked-safety-reports-accidents.html

Exactly. The present situation is serious, no question, but it is certainly not apocalyptic. Now, it is probably apocalyptic for the workers in the plant. And, it is probably apocalyptic for the future growth of the nuclear industry. Exposed fuel rods dont melt down; and reactor meltdowns are not contagious. The problem with taking this stance that some are over-reacting is that there is some probability that they may be right. Person who recalls TMI and Chernobyl personally, unfortunately.... ;)

yes, i've read studies & analysis along these lines eslewhere too. but one thing i've always had a question about: can you reallly compare markets today as a % of GDP to that of an 80 year avg? isnt there likely to be some difference, maybe a big one, between both the size & number of publically traded co's & their total percent share contribution to GDP vs that of private co's in rent time vs long ago times? i've never seen this question addressed. Me neither... Also, the reality is that the largest companies listed on US markets do more and more business overseas every year. Many of them do the majority of their business offshore now such as KO, GE, GOOG, MSFT, AAPL, XOM, etc. etc. etc.

Zarley, That's my read on the situation so far. The US is way over-reacting which is very irresponsible. It just foments panic in Tokyo, and tends to discredit the Japanese Government which isn't fair. This is not Chernobyl yet. Chernobyl's one reactor had been in complete meltdown for days before the Soviets even admitted there was a problem. Dumb f--ks in Toronto are buying up potassium iodide tablets to protect themselves from thyroid cancer in the event one of the reactors they have been living beside for 30 years suddenly melts down. By the time they need to use the tablets they will be buried in a landfill somewhere for 75 years.

Yes, see Japan thread: MFC, SLF, PD-tsx, MTL - tsx, SSW, GE 2013 options. Have slowed a bit - need to sell something to make room. I think oil and gas related stocks should continue to do well and drillers, service providers are cheap. Canadian Life insurers are cheap and pay big dividends. GE will make billions in Japan on reconstruction and work in the Nuclear industry.

Maybe Mr. Cote has been drinking some FFH coolaid along the way as well. I am sure he has a price in mind, and I am equally sure its well above the 1.40 he just bought shares at.

And every nuclear plant on earth has spent fuel rods sitting in swimming pools. Hows that for bliss and joy. It is easy to speculate on what could/should have been done. At a certain point the risks are analyzed and assigned a probability. They considerd earthquakes, and considered tsunami's, but they evidently didn't consider both at greater sizes than ever before. The Japanese are careful and thorough. So, how much solar power generation capacity using conventional methods could one install in the deserts in southern Europe, China, US, and SA. for 30-40 Billion?

Sad state of affairs in Japan but it is not Chernobyl yet. The few people who worked longer at the actual plant may actually die from their exposures - they were likely volunteers. On a positive note I have been buying stock in companies I already held - most for years. Manulife - sold off at least 5 Billion for exposures of 150 m Precision Drilling - hat tip to SD for reminding me. Mullen Group Sun Life - sold off in sympathy? Seaspan - after that out of the park 3rd Q GE options - 2013s Jan- 17.50s and 20s All except PD pay dividends. Events like these are inevitably followed by rallies.

Just a question for someone more knowledgeable: If you have a Honda plant in Alliston Ontario and it needs certain parts that are only manufactured a few miles from a certain damaged reactor would business interruption insurance apply if you are shut down by the lack of parts?

US prices up a little more than that: PIX US NBSK USD 986.13 +6.77 Alek, The Us prices you had hadn't been adjusted at the time. a.