enoch01

Flat in January after being up 11% in 2011. The loss from DIMEQ has been compensated by gains elsewhere. LEAPS on MSFT, BAC are growing to large positions. 10% cash.

Best comment on this entire thread.

Up 11%. My glaring mistake this year was Olympus.

Merry Christmas to all! :)

We agree on that one. ZH- such a concentration of nasty misanthropes. I do find myself straying over there when I want to hear what the otherside is thinking and they are the other side. The quality of the commentary has declined significantly since 2009. Today it probably gets more traffic than back then, but it has become an echo chamber about political conspiracy theories, gold, Blythe Masters, John Paulson, etc - notwithstanding the quality of the posts by Tyler Durden. I consider that a potential contrarian datapoint. I would be worried about an upcoming crash if ZH's traffic started to decrease significantly. I still read it regularly, to try and cover all bases.

Lots of people looking in the rear-view mirror: http://www.cnbc.com/id/45741694

They're tearing down serviceable houses in Cleveland, and presumably elsewhere: http://www.cbsnews.com/video/watch/?id=7392090n

exacty. his "partners" come first. the country second. I don't know - I like a country where contracts mean something. If he is successful, that will contribute (in a small way, granted) toward future issuers thinking twice before lying in their documents. That, in turn, might help direct credit towards those who are credit-worthy. Maybe that would make assets more affordable for the "working people", because those "working people" won't have to compete for credit with anybody who can fog a mirror.

That's much too speculative. Do you have enough information on what Baupost is doing to draw that analogy?

How is there anything wrong with this? He's enforcing a contract guys.

Why are we not surprised? 8) This is probably one of the many reasons he called BAC a "crappy" business recently with Charlie Rose.

I would only sell puts on stocks that are already cheap, or when there is a lot of fear, etc. Generally I think it isn't a great strategy to sell puts if you wouldn't buy the stock outright. This is because the puts are probably underpriced. Think about it this way: would you sell insurance against hurricane damage if you were the only one who thought the chances of a hurricane were higher than everyone else? This is basically what you are doing when you sell puts on stocks you think aren't cheap.

The big banks look cheap. Therefore, they attract the eye of people looking for value. However, in varying degrees, the prospects of big banks depend on the macro environment. Therefore, if one is going to establish a position in the big banks, one needs to have an opinion on the macro environment. Maybe that's why there's more macro talk on the board these days. However, there are other companies whose prospects do not depend on the macro environment; Clearwire, for instance. I have a suspicion that wireless usage is going to grow exponentially for a while, regardless of whether Italy needs a bailout.

Perhaps we're getting close? Will this quote in the widely-read zerohedge mark an inflection point? I don't know. Retail is continually withdrawing, so I take that as a positive. http://www.zerohedge.com/news/14th-consecutive-week-stock-outflows-retail-refuses-go-back-stocks-no-matter-what-market-does

Is the offer still good? Why isn't this being arbed? If I would ask this question myself, I would probably say, it's because they buy only 5% of the outstanding float, and thus it might be too insecure for regular arbitrageurs. they might invest with higher probabilities of downside protection in full 100% takeovers, like Lubrizol. And with downside protection, I mean, arbitrageurs lust for short term downside protection. we longs rather wait for the long term exceptional rewards. Cheers! Makes sense. Thanks.

Is the offer still good? Why isn't this being arbed?

All over the place. 50 million to 200 billion at the moment.

I think we're done with this part now, right? Good grief. "Value-investing legend Bill Miller..."

Fantastic book. I can't believe it hasn't been mentioned yet. When people ask me about investing, I tell them to read Fooled By Randomness and the Berkshire annual letters before doing anything.

Buffett may agree with you, for all we know: http://fundmanagernews.com/buffett-microsoft

Sadly, that's all it seems to take these days to make it in the financial advisory business.

To get a better deal! Look how much they've talked down the rest of Europe so far. Papandreuo et al are waking up to how much leverage they have. All deal will come with spending cut, so the end result is the same. The spoiled won't accept the cut. The spoiled also may not negotiate in good faith.

To get a better deal! Look how much they've talked down the rest of Europe so far. Papandreuo et al are waking up to how much leverage they have.

Up 19%. Held a lot of cash until about 2 months ago.

Same story here: engineering, no girls in the class. This is getting a little strange...