KJP
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Posts posted by KJP
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market is down like 14% and people are throwing in the towel? This is nothing in the course of a regular market.
What did this guy in was that it looks like he overconcentrated his ptf in energy.
The guy grew up in an environment where China binged on capex & commodities fuelling the commodities supercycle, whilst at the same time rates were dropping for 3 decades. Both cycles are turning the other way (though the rates side of it is debatable), and this guy picked that exact moment to go long commodity stocks.
I don't think it's that simple. He also has extensive write ups of Hertz and VRX, among others. What I found useful was asking myself whether I would have come to a different conclusion about those companies at the time and, if not, what that says about the types of opportunities I should be considering.
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The blogger at 17 Mile is shutting down his blog due to, among other things, the collapse of his strategy. His last post is a very candid assessment of his performance, strategy and current abilities. I found the post-mortem, along with a review of his prior investment theses (mostly well known names), helpful in reminding me about my own limitations as an individual investor, concentration/diversification, and what types of investments I should be considering versus putting in the too-hard/too-levered pile.
In case anyone else find's it useful, here's a link: http://seventeenmile.com/
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Karelia Tobacco
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College is great for someone with little initiative because it automatically bumps them to a level they couldn't get to from just working on their own.
I agree with this and think it applies to most people, including me 20 years ago. (See the post about bias.) Many of the posts in this thread talk about what someone could do without going to college. But realistically most people would never do those things on their own.
Also, nearly everyone I know loved their time in college, and I suspect it bettered their lives in many ways. Is that worth $150,000 in debt? I doubt it. But I think the experience is worth something.
An earlier comment also cautioned against "high end" schools. I disagree with that as well. Being around thousands of very smart people your age when you're 18-22 is invaluable. Plus, most "high end" schools offer generous financial aid, so very few have to pay full price to attend.
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With the going dark thing. Quarterly results were so lumpy that they weren't very helpful anyway. Liquidity probably hasn't changed a lick. If it's too small now then it was before too.
I don't mind not having quarterly reports, but I do think the lack of any public annual financials is a problem. Without them, how are there going to be new buyers for your shares? It seems like a recipe for chronic undervaluation and, ultimately, a takeunder. I want to qualify all of this by acknowledging that I haven't seen any empirical analysis of this issue and would be interested if anyone has seen any analysis of, for example, P/E or EV/EBIT multiples for fully dark companies relative to similar public companies.
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ELDO
I sound like a broken record but I haven't mentioned them in a while. It's pretty much what everyone looks for:
* small
* owner-operated
* well-run
* frugal
* efficient
* hidden assets (water rights and "investments")
* an internationally famous water source
* >10% growth
* theoretical operating leverage
* ridiculously high margins
* monopoly biz
* loyal following (probably around 9% of CO water market share by now - the single highest market share of any water bottler not named Aquafina, Dasani, or one of Nestle's brands IN ANY STATE)
Doug Larson has all the personal qualities required to be an all-star CEO.
Has the company made any public disclosures since going dark? It doesn't appear that they're going to provide shareholders with quarterly reports. Are they going to provide annual audited financials? The 8-K announcing the decision to go dark is equivocal on that point.
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Videocon d2h, Radiant Logistics
i started looking at videocon d2h, it reported decent metrics but the stock did not react as positively as I would have imagined
Agreed. I also thought guidance was really strong. There might be macro/India fear involved?
Do you have any background on the Dhoots and their treatment of minority shareholders? I've only heard an unflattering whisper or two, but don't have any firsthand knowledge.
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Happy to keep the discussion going, I can start a new thread and post more notes soon.
Look forward to seeing it.
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Long QIS.v (see thread for more detail). Should be a 20%+ grower for the next several years and show meaningful and positive operating leverage. Currently at ~6x 2016 EBITDA.
Long QHR.v. QHR is the industry leader (Canadian EMR software) in an oligopoly structure whose consolidation is accelerating. They offer a mission critical product with 98% customer retention. The stock has 50% upside from where it is now even if they never get another new doctor, but both the number of doctors and ARPU could double in ~5 year and <10 years, respectively, so it has low-risk for multi-bagger potential.
Southpaw:
I really liked your QIS writeup. Do you have something similar for QHR. At first glance, it appears to be a leading niche SAAS software company trading at 2x recurring revenue with room for growth, both from greenfield opportunities and other EMR software providers.
One question I do have is if EMR software is very sticky, why is QHR able to obtain 1/3 of new sales are from competing EMR providers? Do they have a superior product? Lower cost to the user?
Also, do you have a sense of the returns on capital the company has been able to achieve on its acquisitions of competing EMR providers? The recent Jonoke transaction, for example, appears to have given QHR access to $1 million in recurring revenue for almost nothing (I understand that not all of the Jonoke users will transition to QHR).
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TNR Technical (TNRK)
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Advant-E Corporation (ADVC)
Mestek (MCCK)
ELXSI Corp (ELXS)
Conrad Industries (CNRD) [Founding family still runs it; not sure if they have majority ownership]
Heritage-Crystal Clean (HCCI) [This is run by original founder but not majority owned by him]
Radiant Logistics (RLGT) [Also run by founder but not majority owned by him]
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1) RLGT (sold off with other platform companies, but this one has little debt and is now trading at 7x 2016 EBITDA with huge growth +cost synergies possible in 2016.
Isn't Radiant trading at 9x-10x 2016 EBITDA? Market cap plus existing options is about $220MM + $20MM preferred + $55MM in debt, and 2016 EBITDA of $32MM (midpoint of guidance).
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Good senior managers should: (i) run the business well; (ii) allocate capital well; and (iii) treat minority shareholders fairly. Here are some lesser known managers who I think have hit all three points:
Character Group (CCT): Richard King (he's winding down now)
Judges Scientific (JDG): Alex Hambro
Armanino Foods (AMNF): Edmond Pera
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Restrictions on the ability of an unlisted company's board to issue stock could arise from: (i) the charter; (ii) the by-laws; (iii) the law of the state of incorporation; or (iv) a shareholders' agreement. You referred to Delaware law, so I assume you're dealing with a Delaware corporation. Section 157 of the Delaware General Corporation Law authorizes boards to issue stock options, subject to any restrictions in the charter. The statute itself does not provide for any limit on the number of options that may be granted. Instead, you must look to the general law of fiduciary duty and waste.
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Agreed re: the Wellington interview, particularly the discussion of the equal weighting on page 23.
The demise of a value investor
in General Discussion
Posted
Many (most?) of his investments were also highly levered.