orthopa

Well he went in big on Gamestop and Tailored Brands, so not surprising. Bill Ackman on board too. Millions asymptomatic and exposed, we could be approaching herd immunity by fall in large populations.

Well he went in big on Gamestop and Tailored Brands, so not surprising. No is probably because the country is starting to see that we may have gone a little out of control relative to what we are seeing nationwide.

We appear to be at the top of the curve in NY and still have underwhelming trends in other states. Oregon is sending out ventilators, they are done. Looking at the data NY is the complete outlier. Again they are the exception, not the rule. Interesting that Fauci sat on the sidelines during the presser yesterday. I wonder/have a feeling people within the administration are a little tired of his worst case scenario and dire predictions. Especially with signs that we are nearing/at the top and currently at 10kish deaths. This is the worst week coming up, Overall deaths in the US way down compared to the corona virus deaths. We are saving humanity indirectly. The model used for all of this wildly wrong and NYC discharging way more pts then admitting. ICU need off by a factor of 10x per Cuomos previous comments. Holy shit. Fauci now saying maybe 25-50% of people asymptomatic? No shit, didnt I say that a month ago? Once more serologic testing comes out we will find that way, way, way more people have antibodies, millions of people. The death rate will plummet as I suggested back in one of my first posts and even though this "isnt the flu" we will find the death rate approaches it rapidly with serologic testing. Based on the data there appears to be no question that warmer climates seem to limit the spread, look at CA, FL, TX, AZ, NM. I have a feeling those who were at first forecasting the most dire predictions will become disingenuous and suggest we are not counting enough dead bodies!!! Ill stick my neck out again and say country is opened by 4/30. Fauci losing favor with Trump and will slide into the background. Watch for more evidence on a daily basis that this was way more wide spread then thought. We will see in the next 7-10 days but I think there is a good chance that we will find that the lockdowns did nothing as evidenced by the death rate, number of deaths and miles traveled in the Dalal's ealier post. A lot of the areas that people traveled the most have the lowest death rates!!!! How do we explain that?

That's interesting. From what i read a lot of lower-income people losing their jobs right now, will actually have more money coming in than before (combination of unemployment and the check from Mnuchin). How fast do you get an unemployment check after you file in the US. There might be some cash flow mismatch, but my impression was that for a couple of months most people will be able to scrape by. Supposedly (don't know how accurate it is) but 40% of Americans can't come up with $400 in an emergency. I guess they can try to scrape by on credit cards...but that seems kinda pointless long term. Hopefully with them spending less (can go out, cant drink, cant buy shit) for a month or two the extra money gets them through.

FnF still has a commitment from treasury for funding via the PSPA. It would be horrible optics but would needing more support trigger receivership? FnF were given a small cushion before year end a couple years ago due to accounting changes so maybe so?

https://www.lastampa.it/topnews/primo-piano/2020/04/02/news/coronavirus-castiglione-d-adda-e-un-caso-di-studio-il-70-dei-donatori-di-sangue-e-positivo-1.38666481 Very small case study but will be interesting to see what the US looks like when antibody testing gets going in mass. Castiglione d'Adda is a case study: "70% of blood donors are positive"

Am I reading this right? WH took down their estimates for deaths by 60k within a week from 100k to 40k with the caveat of "still listening to us"? https://www.cnbc.com/2020/04/03/white-house-advisor-says-another-coronavirus-epidemic-like-nyc-could-change-us-mortality-rate.html This makes sense because every model out there predicting exponential death and millions of deaths have been way off.

The states who were the slowest to implement travel restrictions also seem to have some of the lowest deaths per 1000. Mainly in the south eastern part of the country. Is the heat/humid weather playing a role? Louisiana the early outlier. With all the spring breakers/beaches and the elderly population you would think Florida would be a graveyard by now, have tested the 7th most cases and just locked down yesterday. Texas still has no stay at home order and essential travel and services not closed and have 97 deaths. We are coming to the expected peak in the next 7-14 days for many states will be interesting to watch NY is in a class of its own. If the worst case is near peak very soon we should be through this sooner then later. https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/us/coronavirus-us-cases.html

Apparently Oregon is sending 140 ventilators to NYC per Cuomo. Something isnt adding up regarding these models though. Peak need apparently still coming for Oregon, May 5th. http://covid19.healthdata.org/projections ED visits for Covid like symptoms and percentage too. https://govsite-assets.s3.amazonaws.com/9BrRkUvtT8aMSfPNGWf7_Oregon-COVID-19-Update-04-03-2020-FINAL.pdf Im not necessarily calling the model gospel but is there another reliable one as detailed per state? Wondering though because WH expecting 100k-240k deaths and this model which has GREATLY over estimated need but is closer on death is estimating 93k. What model/projections are the white house using?

In other news there is some good news coming out of NYC More pts discharged then admitted, should start to take strain off of the system. 1095 admitted, 1592 discharged. The Institute of health medicine projections on a state by state basis still way, way over estimating need although death close. 6 more days to peak deaths in NYC. https://www1.nyc.gov/site/doh/covid/covid-19-data.page cases, hospitlization and deaths trending down.

Not trying to pick a fight or get in the middle here but isnt Fidel Castro at least a little bit more to blame then Donald Trump in regards to the current situation of the people in Cuba? He has a pretty gnarly record of human rights issues. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Human_rights_in_Cuba

Still, this is the exact same thing an enormous amount of the world population is saying right now, with a typical country only having 0.1% or so positively diagnosed. Either, most of us have gotten it already (could be but not that likely), or most of us are super-aware of our bodies because of the news and just had some sort of a flu we perhaps never really would have noticed if not for the corona crisis (more likely). How do you fake a fever and body aches? ie make yourself have a fever? Again we are in a worldwide pandemic right? Very likely many, many have had it. Now that you mention it what "sort of a flu" other then influenza do you think would be causing this symptoms, again during a world wide pandemic with a novel virus? Not challenging just wondering your line of thinking.

If he wanted to go back to the 50s he would just watch the movie "back to the future" . Sorry, just trying to lighten the situation!

I think a final PSPA agreement was viewed as a summerish to fall activity before all of this hit the fan. FnF may have issues after 2-3 months per Calabria which gets us to mid summer. Maybe if things are looking bleak by then its the catalyst that gets things done a little early. I have always felt treasury would not act unless forced. This previously seemed only possible legally but this certainly is a new fold. Political cover will more then be there as this was a bipartisan bill that forced this and MBA and the assoc cast of characters are howling. I guess taking a step back even from a non shareholder view I would question why would'nt you just do a final amendment and move on? The upside to doing another amendment is becoming the best option for all parties, even those that were adamant opponents before. The rub for treasury would be losing 30B. Zeroing out shareholders after all that has been done over the past year with the treasury plan, FHFA capital rule, hiring houlihan lokey, etc seems a little counter productive, and to then go back out and stick your hand out to recap. That would be pretty rich. It will be a couple months before we see any issues and as cherzeca said that likely get us out of this virus hot period also.

I think a final PSPA agreement was viewed as a summerish to fall activity before all of this hit the fan. FnF may have issues after 2-3 months per Calabria which gets us to mid summer. Maybe if things are looking bleak by then its the catalyst that gets things done a little early. I have always felt treasury would not act unless forced. This previously seemed only possible legally but this certainly is a new fold. Political cover will more then be there as this was a bipartisan bill that forced this and MBA and the assoc cast of characters are howling. I guess taking a step back even from a non shareholder view I would question why would'nt you just do a final amendment and move on? The upside to doing another amendment is becoming the best option for all parties, even those that were adamant opponents before. The rub for treasury would be losing 30B.

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-04-03/mortgage-servicers-teeter-near-crisis-that-regulators-saw-coming?srnd=economics-vp This quotes are great "Mortgage Bankers Association Senior Vice President Pete Mills said it’s unfair to punish nonbanks for being unprepared for a calamity like the coronavirus because it couldn’t have been predicted." "Over the past few years, academics and government regulators have sounded alarms that nonbanks don’t have the capital or liquidity to withstand an economic downturn. A 2018 paper by researchers at the Fed and the University of California-Berkeley warned that the nonbank mortgage sector “appears to have minimal resources to bring to bear in a stress scenario.” "The MBA, the industry trade group, released its own white paper in 2019 calling the researchers’ warnings “overstated.” Ginnie appears to be the bigger issue If not solved, the epicenter of the nonbank crisis will be with Ginnie, which is part of the U.S. Department of Housing and Urban Development. The company guarantees $2.1 trillion in mortgage bonds containing loans to low-wealth borrowers, veterans and others. "They" are really letting the servicers hold the bag on this one. Really making them squirm. Is this really payback for lobbying so hard against FnF?

Since we have some Canadian neighbors on the board why isnt Toronto a complete shit show? Toronto has a ton of international flights to China/Europe and a pretty dense make up right? International travel stopped March 16th https://nationalpost.com/news/canada/trudeau-travel-restrictions-ban-coronavirus-covid19-canada And travel to US stopped March 18th. https://www.forbes.com/sites/sandramacgregor/2020/03/18/update-canada-restricts-travel-to-the-us-in-new-coronavirus-travel-ban/#4859d99f449c Or does Toronto fall in the "wait 2 more weeks" category? With the international flights and the US loaded with it you would expect a mess up there now right?

Great price, I added more today too. If I go down it will be with guns a blazn.

Cuomo said we may need 37,000 ICU beds on March 17th. Peak should be in NYC in about a week. Today there are 13383 hospitalized and 3396 in ICU beds, in the most dense city in the US. If the whole goal for this was to bend the curve, to not overload the healthcare system, then maybe needs throughout the country are currently overestimated and this is over sooner then later. https://www.forbes.com/sites/arielshapiro/2020/03/17/cuomo-says-new-york-needs-as-many-as-37000-icu-beds-it-only-has-3000/#51a330c1739f Good news, snap your fingers and 255 less deaths expected in Washington in 24 hrs!

It certainly remains to be seen but maybe NYC and surrounding areas are the exception and not the rule of what to expect. Cuomo can certainly be commended for his response but his forecast of needed beds/ICU beds seems to be vastly over estimated. Peak cases expected in 7ish days. If expectations for the most dense city in the US was overestimated, why not for the rest of the country?

What? Go tell NYC they're winning. Tell New Orleans everything is fine because they're coming in better than projected. Maybe wrecking the economy is helping to "beat" the model in many areas. If my model says 10M people will die in the U.S and only 1M people die then it's a grand success? How do you interpret the data? Are you saying the amount of resources needed were not overestimated? Whats your goal, try to make sure no one dies from the corona virus?

FWIW found this on twitter. I guess I can say I always had a bit of skepticism regarding where we were exactly on the curve and some of the dire predictions that some had. It looks like some have been keeping track. Looks like a "little" closer for icu demand. NC situation https://twitter.com/houstonniner/status/1245817687319752705/photo/1 Certainly way to early to say if this was all over blown or not but interesting to look at anyway. Silver lining maybe we get through this easier then projected. In the back of my mind though I cant help hearing, "wait 2 more weeks", just "wait 2 more weeks"

So now he agrees preferred need to be made whole? Thats rich. Whats with the lever them up comment? Not sure I follow that.

I do have to say many who feel wronged by the whole GSE situation probably read this and smile. I wonder why the admin is pushing back so hard? To make them sweat? Teach them a lesson? This would imply that the admin/Mnuchin have sympathized with shareholders and or their treatment from the MBA types but if thats the case they sure have had a weird way of showing sympathy.

https://www.cnn.com/2020/03/26/business/mortgage-payment-coronavirus-stimulus-federal-reserve/index.html Forgive me if I'm incorrect in my thinking here as its late and I have worked alot lately but doesnt this article spell out the solution to the forbearance issue? The Fed will set up a lending facility to the servicers, who will continue to forward the money to all parties including FnF when then in turn pay the MBS holders? Essentially the missing payments will be returned to the fed once the mortgage is refinanced, paid off, caught up on etc? It seems to be cash crunch will involve the servicers. "The problem is that mortgage servicers, even after granting homeowners forbearance, are still on the hook with investors to continue paying principal and interest on the mortgages. They also must make payments to mortgage insurers, property insurers and local tax authorities." "The bill passed by the Senate would allow borrowers with federally backed mortgages who have a financial hardship directly or indirectly from the coronavirus pandemic to request forbearance. Borrowers can postpone mortgage payments for 180 days without incurring fees or penalties. And they can request to extend that forbearance for another 180 days. This is not loan forgiveness. The missed mortgage payments would still be owed eventually, likely by extending the duration of the loan. The mortgage industry, like many others, is turning to the Fed to invoke emergency powers and serve its role as the lender of last resort. In this case, the US central bank would provide a line of credit mortgage servicers could draw on to make the payments to mortgage investors on behalf of borrowers." This below is a response from Tim Howard on a similar question asked on his website... "The problem for servicers is that even though they ultimately get reimbursed for the monthly payments they are required to advance for 3 to 4 months (and perhaps more, under the government’s forebearance plan) on Fannie or Freddie-guaranteed MBS, many likely will have neither the capital nor the liquidity to be able to make these advances in the volumes that may be required. This is why state regulators are calling for some type of federal lending program for servicers." https://howardonmortgagefinance.com/2020/01/16/how-we-got-to-where-we-are/#comment-14815