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zarley

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Everything posted by zarley

  1. Here's a link to the BOD: http://h30261.www3.hp.com/phoenix.zhtml?c=71087&p=irol-govboard Most haven't been on the board very long. Other than Andreesen and maybe Whitman, it seems to be filled with non-descript c-suite flunkies, private equity and software people. No wonder HPQ is so screwed up. Who are the owners that voted in that board? http://moneycentral.msn.com/ownership?symbol=HPQ&Holding=5%25+Ownership Looks like it's all institutional ownership, insiders own less than 1%. Might be the poster-child for what happens when the owners are entirely detached from the running of the business. Kind of amazing really, given its history as a partnership / start-up.
  2. zarley

    MSFT

    Google Docs is completely down for me right now as well. Interesting. Working fine for me, fwiw. This does highlight one reason (of several) why I'm skeptical of widespread use of cloud computing for anything of real importance. Back-ups and low level personal use? Sure. Anything more important than a tracking spreadsheet? No way.
  3. zarley

    MSFT

    Well we know one guy: http://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/789019/000122520811014766/xslF345X03/doc4.xml Heh, good point. But, even 5 million shares is a pretty small fraction of just the known purchases from guys like Klarman and Einhorn and Dodge&Cox, etc.
  4. zarley

    MSFT

    Bump the dividend, increase buy-backs, and a special dividend like in 2005 (particularly if a tax holiday on foreign cash is enacted). After the near-miss with Yahoo!, you can't entirely discount a value-destroying acquisition. With all the big name value guys who have been buying, the question I have is: who is selling at $25?
  5. I've been an owner of SHLD for several years. Until the last 6ish months, I would have strongly disagreed with this notion. The primary reason being the consistent cash flow provided by operations. Despite all the negative sentiment about the company, they had been able to produce about a billion dollars in free cash flow each year, and even did reasonably well in 2009. The past year's results have been a different story, and it's not clear the the retail operations will return to delivering strong positive cash flows. So, my disagreement is mild at best. :) I always viewed the real estate valuation to be a worst case, which wasn't that important if the stores continued as a positive source of income. I'm no longer convinced that SHLD, as a retail operation can be long-term profitable, which leaves brand licensing and Lampert's financial prowess to add value. Neither of those are a sure thing, and the real estate can't be easily monetized in the current environment. While I don't see bankruptcy as a real possibility right now, I do see a slow and persistent decline in operations and tangible value as a likely outcome. However, it wouldn't surprise me if SHLD sold one or two more secondary pieces (like Orchard) and used the proceeds for Lampert to take it private. But, that's just speculation at this point. Even at $60 it's not that attractive, but I do continue to hold a small amount (much smaller than it used to be). So, maybe I don't really disagree at all, and I'm just anchored to my purchase price and historical valuation estimates which keep me from selling the last bit I still own.
  6. Well, i guess since i still have my IE on here (not my default) I should update it to 9? Why were all the ads just sayiing "update to IE8 and not IE9" Another question, If i update the IE still on my comp, how do i make it not be my default since it will be the latest browser updated if i do? In case it doesnt ask me Are you running Win7? I noticed on my WinXP PC that I can't update to IE9. It may be OS related. If you launch a browser that isn't set as your default, it should ask to be set as the default when you launch it. Chrome 13 or Firefox 4 will probably perform better than IE8, but I don't think they're clearly better than IE9 at the moment.
  7. I can't help with the tech stuff, but this is the sort of thing that can change a lot as browsers get updated. IE9 fares much better on the benchmarks than IE8, for example. This rundown from April is a little out of date, but it's still useful. http://www.tomshardware.com/reviews/internet-explorer-9-chrome-10-opera-11,2897-14.html In any event, it's a good idea to keep your browser updated.
  8. Using Firefox 5 or Chrome 13 right now -- depends on what computer I'm using.
  9. As much as I missed being able to read the thoughts of the posters here, Parsad, you have much better things to worry about during weeks like this. I hope you didn't find the problems here to be distracting or stressful; I'm sure you had your hands full with your day-job. Glad to see the board back up though.
  10. Bought a little more BRK and considering more FFH, MSFT, & WDC. My gut still turns on days like today, but how can you not buy BRK at $71? Only a little cash left; may close out SHLD and VZ to concentrate on better values.
  11. May be a cop-out, as you say. The last few years have certainly provided opportunities to put cash to work. But J. Tisch comes right out and says they're not that interested in being a minority shareholder. So, they're looking for buy-outs rather than just buying attractively priced equity securities. Seems like they're most interested in using Holding Co cash to support purchases through the operating subs.
  12. According to the Q&A for the quarter's CC, Tisch doesn't see any compelling uses for the the growing cash position. Most of the Q&A really covers that point. They prefer full buyouts to being a minority shareholder, they don't see compelling opportunities, they're content to spend the money on buy-backs for now (given they view their own shares a attractively priced). Watching paint dry is absolutely right. Seeing nothing smart to do, they'll do nothing. It's perfectly rational, but not very exciting. http://seekingalpha.com/article/283584-loews-ceo-discusses-q2-2011-results-earnings-call-transcript?part=qanda
  13. As always, Howard Marks has summed things up nicely in a memo to clients: http://www.oaktreecapital.com/MemoTree/Down%20to%20the%20Wire%2007_21_11.pdf I have a hard time seeing much to disagree with there.
  14. I'm not Myth, but my perspective on WDC hasn't changed. I did lighten up a little bit back in May, just to get it back to a normal full position size for me. The quarter/FY results didn't change much for me. They seem to be outperforming Seagate for the time being. I'm mostly waiting to see how the Hitachi integration progresses and how the HDD market holds up going forward. Recent tech results indicate that enterprise IT spending is strong which is helping offset tablet canibalization of PC/laptop sales. Need to read the CC transcript still, but I don't think that will change my mind significantly.
  15. LOL, who are you to say what opinions Buffett should have and how/where he should express them? He was asked about the debt ceiling and he answered about the debt ceiling. You want his opinion about the proper level of government spending, go Omaha and ask him. My opinion is that the debt ceiling increase should have been part of the legislation authorizing the spending that Congress passed and the President signed in April. That is the time to debate the appropriate level of spending, taxation, and borrowing.
  16. The level of spending is immaterial to Buffett's point -- he says nothing about the appropriate level of spending. If you want to spend at 24% of GDP you need to tax at 24% of GDP. If you only want to tax at 18% of GDP then you need to limit spending to 18% of GDP. He's advocating for having tax revenue in line with the desired amount of spending.
  17. Only a few months ago (April) the spending in question was passed with overwhelming Republican support. House vote: Y-260 vs N-167 http://www.govtrack.us/congress/vote.xpd?vote=h2011-268 Senate vote: Y-81 vs N-19 http://www.govtrack.us/congress/vote.xpd?vote=s2011-61 How many of the Republicans currently waving their hands about the debt are among the 200+ Republicans who voted for that spending? If I had to guess, I'd guess most of them (e.g., Cantor and Boehner). They're acting in bad faith and putting the financial system in peril with their behavior.
  18. This is largely the administration's position, and has been for just short of a year. http://www.fiscalcommission.gov/sites/fiscalcommission.gov/files/documents/TheMomentofTruth12_1_2010.pdf The commission recommended a broadened tax brackets with fewer deductions, so it's a mixed bag on the tax front. Do you really believe the administration position is anywhere near the deficit commission? http://www.adrienneroyer.com/wp-content/uploads/2011/04/publicdebtryanvscommission.gif The basic premise is still in play. It is the outline for "the grand bargain" that isn't quite dead yet. http://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/grand-bargain-on-debt-ceiling/2011/07/16/gIQAgPJpII_story_1.html
  19. This is largely the administration's position, and has been for just short of a year. http://www.fiscalcommission.gov/sites/fiscalcommission.gov/files/documents/TheMomentofTruth12_1_2010.pdf The commission recommended a broadened tax brackets with fewer deductions, so it's a mixed bag on the tax front.
  20. Hester/Parsad, thanks for clarifying on that. As you say Hester, it is applicable to many things; I may just be remembering an occasion other than the original comment.
  21. Charlie will, indeed be missed. One nit to pick . . . Schroeder links the famous raisins and turds comment to internet stocks. I thought the context was about accounting rules.
  22. That's the problem. One can tout how they are buying value stocks, and how it is a buying opportunity when they decline, but it still sucks. They get killed just like everything else, and you can keep buying and they can keep getting killed. Yes, it should all work out, but I don't want to have that feeling again. I went into 2008's decline with a large amount of cash, and didn't buy until one of the whoosh down days in November, but December to March was not fun even though I kept buying. The macro situation is just as frightening to me now, perhaps even worse. I won't lose much sitting on the sidelines and seeing how things develop. That's basically my story as well. Went into the crash with 30+% cash and bonds, but had moved most of it into stocks by November. November through March was very painful. Despite my value mindset and all the Buffett soundbites about being greedy when others are fearful, my emotional reaction to the first quarter of 2009 had me questioning everything I thought I knew. I don't feel the same way today as I did by the end of 2007, and I think the stocks I own are better and cheaper than some of what I owned at that time. So, I'm torn about my cash position. I like what I own, but I expect that the next 6-12 months will offer better opportunities.
  23. This is how I went through 2008. By mid-year I was 30% +/- cash and bonds with BRK and FFH as large positions. Turns out, in bad market conditions, even solid companies with wonderful balance sheets can still get killed. For the year I was down around 25% (vs. 37% for the S&P) and found myself selling cheap stocks to buy even cheaper stocks. I have less cash now (~15%), but I view all of my holdings as cheap, well positioned, and with solid balance sheets. Even though we've barely pulled back from the highs of the year, I find myself wanting to buy more of what I own even though I see the market set up for a serious correction. I'm just waiting for now, quietly hoping for a more significant pull back in the 2nd half of the year, but not wanting to sell anything I own.
  24. People most certainly called Sony out for the PS3 launch. Despite great technical specs, the game selection was awful and the price-point was way too high. The Xbox360 and wii capitalized with better games and much more affordable systems.
  25. You're not alone Ben. The LVLT infection had been well contained in the LVLT thread, but now it has spread. A handful of borderline spammers has chosen to post LVLT nonsense anywhere there is the even the slightest tangential link. It decreases the value of the discussion, but it's a tough nut to crack as politely asking them to stop doesn't seem to work and banning seems overly harsh. An ignore poster function has been discussed and rejected by the board host, so we're stuck with a nuisance. On the bright side, it's less disruptive than the trolls on the TMF BRK board.
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