namo

I thought we were supposed to evaluate Process (which is controlled by the investor) and not Result (which is is inextricably tied to luck). Given what (little) we're told, Burry's process seems really sound to me: he did a lot of reading, identified some fundamental issues + a catalyst to speed up the crash (rate resets), then selected the worst of the crop and bet against it. It could have gone wrong, and it may be legitimate to criticize his sizing, but I'd rather hear criticism of his process.

I'm in the middle of dealing with rookie mistakes as well, and not sleeping as well as I'd like. Mostly I've overdone the put selling, using margin: I've had some success with it in the past year, selling when volatility was higher (including with stocks that tanked then got back up - so it was not all due to the bull market), so I let it go to my head and I sold too many... I've come very close to a margin call; I've actually had to empty my main savings account and to preemptively sell some stock that I liked. My realized loss is very small at this point ; my unrealized losses are very high (in part due to sold puts rising, in part due to the recent drop ; plus 1 E&P position lost 60% over recent months) but I'm mostly comfortable with them, since my conviction holds (to some degree - I know moments of doubt, of course). I'll be fine if the market doesn't go much lower, but it'll be painful if it does before some puts expire/I can unwind some of those positions. Oh well, I also take this as a learning experience.

Linking you to existing feedback elsewhere: http://www.cornerofberkshireandfairfax.ca/forum/general-discussion/10-year-financials/msg228400/#msg228400

Agreed: I was excited to hear about it, but it's not much use to me if I can't download the file. In Android, I use Filings Reader sometimes to read/download SEC filings.

Isn't it the same as proponents of the EMT saying that the Investors of Graham&Doddsville are statistically impossible? :) I'm sure the MBTI has some flaws; any system that puts all humans into 16 boxes makes me suspicious. But I've found time and again that it's a useful mental model (in my professional life, friendships and even love life). So I have to disagree with your choice of words: "proven useless" is much too strong. I've taken a brief look at NEO PI, which is supposed to be more reliable, but I can't say that I've gotten my heads wrapped around it yet.

INTP here. I'm not at all surprised by the results: there was a similar thread on a French investing/FI board I frequent, and the results were very much in line with these: INTJ were most numerous, then INTPs, then a smattering of other types (mostly introverts, but with a few extraverts here and there).

@Packer: do you use EBITDA multiples even for capex-intensive industries, like this one is (I believe)? Why not EBITDA-capex, or possibly EBIT?

I find this fairly interesting too. This reminds of: http://fortune.com/2014/12/04/marketaxess-holdings-ceo-rick-mcvey/ which is a small, but apparently already somewhat successful player. That article also mentions Electronifie.

I voted too soon: I was <0 but I ended up the year at +3%. Not great, but since I started investing in June... I'm still firmly in the "learning" part of it all, and I've already learned from several mistakes. Tops: QLGC, several Malone stocks (LINTA/QVCA, LBTYK), Gévelot (French) Flops: ASPS, ARCP, WPX, SHOS I'm holding on to all of them.