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Jurgis

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Posts posted by Jurgis

    When Will You Take a Vaccine?

    in General Discussion

    Posted

    8 hours ago, Spekulatius said:

    I do not know anyone who has gotten the JnJ shot yet, as this vaccine has been hard to get and until very recently only small amounts trickled to vaccine centers. Let us  know how it goes. I know a few folks who would prefer to get the JnJ vaccine over the mRNA flavors.

    There have been some claims that mRNA-based vaccines may be more effective against new virus variants. Not sure how reliable these claims are.

    When Will You Take a Vaccine?

    in General Discussion

    Posted

    The system in MA here sucks, but what really sucks is Europe. My parents are 79 and 84 and no visibility on when to get the vaccine.

     

    You should not generalize across Europe. In Lithuania anyone above 70 can get vaccine already and possibly even above 65. To be fair, Lithuania is still way behind US.

    Ray Dalio The Changing World Order

    in General Discussion

    Posted

    If China takes over, bitcoin is not going to save you.

    CCP is gonna nuke bitcoin as soon as yuan is the reserve currency.

     

    You cannot position yourself for global (civil) wars.

    Well, you can move to New Zealand, but even they will be affected ultimately.

     

    On the positive side, most likely nothing disastrous will happen in the next 10 years.

     

    And anyone who tells you that they can predict what will happen after 10 years is selling you pipe dreams. © Philip Tetlock

     

    Actually Tetlock said "5 years", but I'm gonna be generous.

     

    This message is likely going to self destruct in ...

    Cryptocurrencies

    in General Discussion

    Posted

    The intent is NOT to write, it's READ only, and ONLY of existing blocks.

    Zero involvement with the process of adding blocks, therefore relatively fast. but unlikely to ever be as fast as a private DB.

     

    Data doesn't get into a block unless it is agreed by a 2nd party using their private key. In a DB, the weather station sensor would write to the DB directly, without any independent verification; it could be utter sh1te (broken sensor). With a blockchain, someone else has to use their private key (verify) or the block doesn't chain. On balance, data is SLOWER to chain onto the block, but MORE reliance can be placed upon it. Of course, a sh1te verifier, and you have sh1te data; same as a sh1te sensor writing to the DB.

     

    Ultimately to use a DB; you have to trust its data, in return for speed and capacity. Whereas a PUBLIC blockchain, assumes everyone is corrupt, hence the protocols. Where corruption is a possibility, blockchain is preferable over processing speed.

     

    A weather forecaster would simply read blockchain data into a standard DB, read/write to that database, and archive the periods records. Repeat daily, and use the archive for predictive purposes. Just a different approach.

     

    Ultimately it's about the data quality, and how much you trust it.

    DB 'evolution' around its biggest weakness, bad data.

     

    SD

     

    So now you are introducing another (human?) actor into each write of weather station data. Did you consider the cost of this? Did you consider delay? I thought you wanted a real-time weather data. Now you are delaying it.

    Even if you are suggesting automated verification on write, it still delays the write. Also who is going to do the verification? And how is that different from centralized validation/verification that could use a regular DB and does not require blockchain?

     

    I understand that this could work in other domains perhaps. IMO your example with weather stations is not a good one though. Weather domain is not risky enough to be concerned about double writes, erroneous writes, etc. Errors are expected and anyone using data usually cleans the data on input. Yeah, that's unneeded overhead, cleaning on write is better if done well. I don't know if there's already clean-on-write for this data.

     

    Also, yeah, there is some reflexivity with blockchain solutions. People/companies/institutions may implement things using blockchain just because it's sexy and on the wave and therefore they have enthusiasm and possibly budget while implementing using DBs would be boring/no-enthusiasm/no-budget. In this respect weather station example might be good: NOAA probably has limited budget to provide free, validated, real-time weather data. If some organizations got the sexy/enthusiasm/some-money bug, they might be able to push through blockchain solution while they would not be able to push through regular DB solution. Maybe.

    So I would not be surprised to see some blockchain "successes" just because of that.  ::)

     

    Edit:

    A weather forecaster would simply read blockchain data into a standard DB, read/write to that database, and archive the periods records.

     

    OK, I'm nitpicking here... but then the weather forecaster's DB can be borked...  ;D They should be prohibited from reading blockchain data into non-blockchain DB.  ;)

    Cryptocurrencies

    in General Discussion

    Posted

    fast processing time

     

    I get what you're saying for the rest of it, but I'm not quite sure how this applies. Wouldn't it have a much slower processing time than almost any other database structure in existence?

     

    Like, if you can't really consider a record committed until 51% agree on the record, doesn't that in effect make it a very slow database? Or am I missing something?

     

    But you really need that 51% agreement, since those weather station guys might decide to double commit or double spend their weather station data! That would be a weather prediction disaster!  ::)

     

    Never mind that anyone doing weather predictions already gets all the data in pretty much real-time without borkchain.

    Coronavirus

    in General Discussion

    Posted

    The outrageous part of the calcifediol issue is that it basically boils down to the most mundane recommendation:  "Be good and goddamned sure that you are not vitamin D deficient when there is covid floating around your community.  If you are white and in the middle of the winter, think hard about whether you are getting adequate vitamin D from dietary sources because you'll be getting nothing from exposure to the sun.  If you have a darker complexion, even in the middle of summer, think hard about whether your body will be producing adequate vitamin D from exposure to the sun."

    For $10 per year, anybody can go to WalMart and buy vitamin D supplements.  Heads you win, tails you don't lose.

    SJ

    A potential win/not-lose aspect is that: "One pill every two weeks fights diabetes, cancers, heart failure, and 18 other diseases".  :)

    tiki-download_wiki_attachment.php?attId=8410

    Covid-19 was recently added to this list. Isn't there an analytical risk here?

    Disclosure 1: over the years, i've had to periodically participate in committees which had to decide if the single payer should pay for certain propositions (there was typically a few participants whose main line of argument was: what is there to lose? a similar line of argument is used now to justify the 2T fiscal shot in the arm). Apologies: i tend to focus (too much?) on second and other higher order effects (the 'unseen' ones).

    Disclosure 2: i'm in the process of being enrolled in a study (based on strong foundations) which will follow people at relatively high risk to be exposed and to contract covid over the next few months. One arm of the study will receive vitamin D supplementation and the other arm will get a placebo. (i may receive a placebo but will watch for the side effects; you must be aware that the placebo group will also report side effects?)

     

    Should I tell you that high vitamin D can cause (? ) (is linked to?) kidney stone problems?

    Now that I told you this, watch out for kidney stones in placebo group...  ::)

    Annual Letter - 2020

    in Berkshire Hathaway

    Posted

    OK, I am going to get a lot of flak for this, but I prefer investor/manager who is looking at the present and future and not waxes nostalgic about deals he did 50 or 70 years ago and people he worked with at the time. Yeah, it's all nice and grand and maybe even interesting in general. But Berkshire is a business and shareholders letter should be about the current and future state of affairs. OK, maybe Buffett does not want to tip his hand and talk about the future. How about talking about 2020 then? There's a number of things he did or did not do that get zero mention in the letter.  ::)

    Movies and TV shows (general recommendation thread)

    in General Discussion

    Posted

    Just started watching "The Barbarian Invasions" ( https://www.imdb.com/title/tt0338135/?ref_=nv_sr_srsg_0 ) - can't go into politics here, but it's about our Canadian friends' healthcare system  8)

    This movie has special meaning to me (not because of healthcare). i hope you like it. Just in case it's not said, it's a sequel to a movie called The Decline of the American Empire. (not joking) 8)

     

    Yes, we liked it. Started a discussion afterwards. Will watch "The Decline of the American Empire" sometime soon.

    Movies and TV shows (general recommendation thread)

    in General Discussion

    Posted

    "The Legend of Cocaine Island" ( https://www.imdb.com/title/tt8106596/?ref_=rt_li_tt ) - It's about investing. Really.  8)

     

    Just started watching "The Barbarian Invasions" ( https://www.imdb.com/title/tt0338135/?ref_=nv_sr_srsg_0 ) - can't go into politics here, but it's about our Canadian friends' healthcare system  8)

     

    "The Trial of the Chicago 7" ( https://www.imdb.com/title/tt1070874/?ref_=rt_li_tt ) - peace bros!

    Deep F______ Value

    in General Discussion

    Posted

     

    Thought he crushed it. Clear precise and direct.

     

    Yea, I don't see how any lawsuit is successful against him. 1.) He's a Legend. and 2.) This whole episode is just entertaining to watch unfold.

     

    Your honor, I am not a cat and the defendant is a Legend.

     

    Case dismissed!

    Deep F______ Value

    in General Discussion

    Posted

    At this point, I suspect the hearing is about informing the house not trying to accuse Mr Gill of a crime, it would be a tragedy and diversion of they did.

    I also think the letter is very well written and it’s true. I watched his streams on YouTube  and there are very clear disclaimers and I found them informative. I don’t know if he broke any regarding his employment, but that would be inconsequential anyway as regards to what happened with those short squeezes and GameStop.

     

    So I hope the house takes this as an opportunity to inform themselves rather than find a scapegoat. whatever happened and went wrong here, there are much bigger fish to fry here - the CEO‘s of Robinhood, Melvin Captital management, Citadel, the fellows running the clearinghouse etc.

     

    Anyways, I will watch his testimony offline I suppose and hope all goes well.

     

    I think you misunderstand US legal system (IANAL LOLZ though).

    House is not in the business of suing people based or not based on the hearings.

    There are other governmental or non-governmental organizations that can sue him.

    In fact, there is already a class-action lawsuit against him and his employer from people who lost money on GME.

    Finally, pretty much anyone can sue anyone in US. This does not mean that the lawsuit will be successful.

     

    IANAL again.

    Mystery Berkshire Investment

    in Berkshire Hathaway

    Posted

    Verizon and Chevron LOL!

     

    8.6bb investment in Verizon. $4bb in Chevron.

     

    That doesn't seem like as good a use of capital as doing buybacks to me.

     

    Exactly my sentiment. If I was told I had to choose between owning BRK or VZ+CVX it is not a hard decision.

     

    +1

    Op-ed: US Strategy for Semiconductor Manufacturing

    in General Discussion

    Posted

    Since most of TSMC manufacturing equipment is actually made in Europe, why don't American semiconductor manufacturers like, you know, buy some?

     

    Why do Intel et all need handouts to avoid the terrible risk of only have 10nm production capabilities in the US leading to a Xmas shortage of game consoles?

     

    Capitalism works

     

    or maybe

     

    Screw-it-there's-no-point-to-invest-TSMC-is-gonna-eat-our-lunch-and-make-all-our-chips-anyway-fck-R&D-hire-McKinsey-for-financial-engineering really works

    position sizing

    in General Discussion

    Posted

    I long ago gave up on using the Kelly Criterion.  That is because according to the Kelly Criterion the size of the bet is determined by the formula:  Edge/Odds = size of bet.  But here's the thing - according to the formula if your Edge = zero, then the size of bet is "Don't Bet!". 

     

    If most of us are truly honest with ourselves, do we really have an edge in picking an individual stock vs the market.  Do we think our guess as to where the "missing sub" is located is going to be more accurate and correct than the collective wisdom of a diverse group of actors with money on the line?  Are we really just punters when we think we are experts?

     

    The good news is that unlike most gambling games (which are negative sum), the stock market is a positive sum game.  All we need is to go with the market via diversification in a group of 10-15 high quality businesses and we will do fine.  So my recommendation is to put away the Kelly position sizing stuff because if you think you have an edge then you are making big bets that you alone can locate a "missing sub" better than the market can.

     

    wabuffo

     

    p.s. the USS Scorpion story is also featured in James Surowiecki's "Wisdom of Crowds" book.

     

    Serious question, if you feel you have no 'edge' (which is a quantitative concept i.e., better odds than average), why are you picking stocks at all? There would be no point.

     

    Because people are overoptimistic about their abilities and therefore they think they have an edge when they really don't.

     

    .......

     

    On the other hand, as someone has already mentioned, Kelly's does not really capture the time dimension. A good/great business may be "efficiently valued" for today, but still provide a good/great return if held long time. Market often undervalues (not "always" like Gorilla Game claimed, but "often") undervalues long term compounders.

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