Wilson-TPC

I may sound like a broken clock on this board to many, but here are my favorite ideas in order. 1. BXE, GXE.TO 2. AAV, PWE, ETE, AR, PXD 3. SBRCY, DNOW 4. JD

Holy sh*t, what a rad idea. CRAZY, but brilliant.

The IEA's estimate of non-OPEC production is so wrong, I don't even know where to start. The methodology that they use are all estimates using historical data. Excel data extrapolating like how an amateur investor would look at 5 years of company data and then calculate an average, then drag that out. Looking at current capex budget and STRIP pricing, non-OPEC should fall more in the tune of 2-3 million bbl/d as opposed to the 500k bbl/d. The way you would calculate this is look at the required capex to sustain current productions, compare this data over the last 3-4 years and calculate the capital efficiency. This gives you a rough idea of where non-OPEC productions are headed next year. Not to mention, there's the natural decline rate attached, which is around 5-6%. IEA and EIA both have had to increase the production decline estimates month over month. Let's just see how flat out wrong they are going into next year. Note: variables that would significantly affect these production estimates would need rig counts to rise, and rig productivity to rise significantly. Both of which aren't showing any real signs to offset production declines.

Yeah it includes LNG. I think you are overestimating demand as a lot of the LNG export terminals aren't even under construction yet. The key is the Marcellus. Just pay attention to that, because the Bakken, Eagle Ford, and Permian are seeing a decrease in associated gas production. Also remember, natural gas will almost certainly never go above 4.5 for any sustainable period of time as drillers like EOG and PXD are sitting on massive amounts of gas deposits in the Permian and can bring them online at any time. EOG has said though, they won't even consider natural gas drilling until natural gas prices recover to AT LEAST 4.5. I tend to think when companies say at least, they will likely start at that price. Am I a bull on natural gas? Yes, definitely as it's mainly dominated by local supply/demand as opposed to global forces. But I'm not bullish to the point where I will estimate above $4.5 nat gas as I think there are lots of supply that can be brought online in less than 6-9 months. I think a fair value for natural gas giving current supply/demand is around $3.5 spot/mcf. Hence, why I used 3.5 as my pricing for my BXE write up.

Here are some actual production forecasts using EIA data... Natural gas productions at current rig counts and assuming same productivity increases over the past year in the Marcellus and Utica should decrease by about 10% just from shale. Range Resources estimate 2016 demand to clock in at 3bcf/d. Current oversupply is 2bcf/d. A decrease of 4bcf/d + 3bcf/d - 2bcf/d gives us an undersupply of 5bcf/d. Email me if you want to EIA data spreadsheet. I also calculated oil productions too. Hint: oil will be undersupplied given current trajectories going towards the end of 2016 given both Iran coming online and OPEC using the remainder of the 1.6 mil bbl/d in capacity. Enjoy boys... Took me a while to calculate these.

Great thread Packer. I think some of the Tiger cubs' performances may be what contributes quality GARPs. My investment partner's former boss compounded at 20% alpha for 14 years and is now retired. Long-short strat. It's very effective, but very very tedious process. It involves months of talking to competitors and former execs to figure out what company has what advantage.

Hey guys, I'm trying to book a room now for the BRK AGM. And there are no rooms already, can you guys give some suggestions?

Wo... Allen has an amazing track record!