bigbluffzinc

VB, LNR, FB

Versabank - A small Canadian (branchless) bank trading at less than 5.5x next years pre tax earnings, 75% of book, & a return on retained earnings going forward north of 30% (earnings growth north of 30%), running on debt to equity at around 8.5x or ~40% of the leverage other Canadian banks employ & with stronger insider buying than I've ever seen in any other opportunity I've looked at. (My estimates) I think it's misunderstood as being (over)exposed to Canadian real estate when it's really a secured lender (mostly small receivables with significant holdbacks) that is unlikely to incur meaningful losses even in a Canadian downturn.

TPH - I think the default risk is overestimated in the price of the common and it's a 2-3x opportunity over the next few years.

Mine has been fine but as long as I don`t have antivirus protection running. It interacts really badly with Kaspersky in my experience but my experience has otherwise been good.

I think he makes an argument. I think he believes gold is money and that it has a positive carry relative to cash because cash has a negative rate and a negative real return. I don't hold gold just pointing out that he did highlight a thesis.

In poker the hands you lose the most money with are the worst hands. If that weren't true you'd fold the other hands instead of playing them. That should be intuitive. Folding = 0. You'd never play a hand where the EV was less than 0. You'd fold. As a result you lose the most with 72o & similar hands. Fwiw this is a digression from the post, I think the author may have been suggesting you lose the most money in situations where you're caught with the second best hand. That's clearly true, if you're dealt KK preflop and an opponent AA, you clearly lose a lot of money. In investing if you find what looks like a great business but things turn against you, you'll lose a lot of money... I hope that was his point.. But as someone else indicated, this is just unlucky. You accept these consequences when you play the game. Poker is a lot like baseball where the game has strikes. The strikes are the rake, you're forced to participate unlike in investing where you can wait indefinitely. There are a lot of similiarities with poker and investing but people can overreach with their comparisons..

My other issue is minor, but it's that at significantly higher gas prices aren't the exports uneconomic? If so why would they contribute to demand?

I followed the link's below and got different results than the article suggests. Perhaps I'm missing something... https://gyazo.com/217b85f4dd25ac5e8d4ad8bd503a2dcf http://www.rrc.state.tx.us/oil-gas/research-and-statistics/production-data/texas-monthly-oil-gas-production/ The thesis rests on declining production here when the link & data I'm seeing suggests the opposite.. My assumption is I'm being directed to the wrong place or have some other error because it seems like a lot of work to have this wrong.. https://oilandgas-investments.com/2015/natural-gas/the-marcellus-is-close-to-peak-production-and-why-this-is-so-important/

Margin'd up today and made a big bet on PCP.. At these levels the annualized return is more attractive & I think interest rates are more likely to drop/remain flat at this point so it should trade at a higher premium going forward. If it's back at 231 in a week you're looking at a really great annualized return.

Sold GOOG bought CHK. Didn't really want to sell GOOG either but I don't see any way CHK isn't worth substantially more than $8.50/share...

One of the books that made it to my list of re-reading... The title is misleading and almost led to my not picking it up.. The reviews in this chat saved me from that mistake :)

Looking at RYAM, posted some thoughts here if anyone wants to take a look and let me know what they think. (Established a small position) http://www.cornerofberkshireandfairfax.ca/forum/investment-ideas/ryam-rayonier-advanced-materials/30/ I also established a large position in Amaya at $27 but will likely add pre-earnings report due to the strength of the US dollar relative to the Canadian dollar impacting the price more than recognition of underlying value.