frog03
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Posts posted by frog03
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Interesting, Bob Rodriguez has the best track record in mutual funds in the US very LT.
Eric Sprott has the best record in mutual funds in Canada over 15 years with Sprott Canadian Equity.
And they pretty much say the same thing, Sprott being even more vocal. Sprott is also very heavily focused on PM these days.
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The Titanic is sinking but the music keeps playing...
You go bankrupt very slowly and then, all of a sudden, very very quickly.
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Parsad, I usually like your comments but you are totally offbase here I think.
Tim Eriksen, you are the man!
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I don't miss him. As Buffett it is not only how intelligent you are, it is also how hard you work and the level of your ethics. Clinton does not pass the ethics criteria in my book.
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Thanks for this update. What is interesting is that despite the track record, the AUM are still very very very small.
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Parames is very good but a couple comments.
His funds returns compare themselves to the indices without dividends reinvested
Thierry Flecchia of Flinvest has a much better record than Parames on European equities (despite higher fees)
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2-3% a year LT in a taxable account is not worth the effort in light of the taxes...
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southeastern France
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The point is, Sprott has had an amazing ability to be in the right markets at the right time (uranium, precious metals, even tech at times), not over the last 10 or 15 years but over 30 years. Over 15 years there is no comparison whatsoever with Chou's performance.
>>> How good would they have done without the metal bull market? Just something to take into consideration.
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There is never an apples to apples comparison in the money management business (AUM, fees, leverage, concentration, mandates, ...) but Chou vs. Berkowitz is with the assumption Chou is the best in Canada appears incorrect to me.
Compare Sprott Canadian Equity return over the last 14 1/2 years vs Chou and there is absolutely no comparison. Chou is a fine manager but Sprott has absolutely killed the returns Chou has achieved.
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Little disappointed by the book value per share growth. Finally getting too large a company?
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Good article and great performance by Allan.
Now, not necessarily an apples to apples comparison but the latest issue of Fortune has info about Baupost from 1999 to 2011 and the net return appears to be 500% so better than Arlington. Baupost has the advantage of using more vehicules than Allan but also has to deal with managing much more money.
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I think most of us (and some pros like Berkowitz) should happily have put BAC in the too hard pile...
Sure it trades at a discount to BV, sure things could get better on the earnings front and the mutliple could go up.
This being said, what about their exposure to derivatives? what about the true quality of their earnings? what about the systematic risk in the financial sector?
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profit margins are very high vs. historically and debt is at record high at well.
On normalized margins and PE, the s&P 500 should be about 900-950.
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Meanwhile, the US national/local governments are getting more and more indebted...
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I've learned about Flinvest before through you from another topic and think the manager is doing a great job. I love that they are European and am impressed with their performance in this flat market. Volatility also seems to be a lot lower. I know we shouldn't look at volatility as risk taken, but can constant lower volatility (dropping a lot less in down markets) be a good indicator as well?
Could you tell me more about his performance before Flinvest? Where can I find out more about his long-term track record?
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Flinvest E. returns are MUCH higher than the market (despite hedge fund like fees!) with MUCH lower standard deviation of yearly returns!
Before founding Flinvest, Flecchia managed Oddo Avenir and Oddo Europe Midcaps. I don't have the Europe returns but I do have the Avenir returns.
1998 (Jul-Dec) -3,2%
1999 57,9%
2000 23,0%
2001 -13,0%
2002 -7,6%
2003 (Jan-Jun) 5,7%
You can also google Flecchia Oddo for some information including interview.
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Some examples:
Sprott Canadian Equity in Canada (about 12 points of added value vs. the index over 14+ years).
Flinvest Entrepreneurs in France (about 8 points of added value vs. the index over 8+ years and the manager has a similar outperformance for 5 years before founding Flinvest so about 8 points for 13+ years).
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I like to have at least 8-10 years track record outperformance (>=5+ points vs relevant index dividends reinvested) and reasonnable AUM.
This basically does not leave anything left in the US (where the best managers typically go the hedge fund way due to better compensation and more flexibility). It does however keep some very interesting options in some other parts of the world like Canada or Europe.
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Speaking of multi baggers...
http://money.msn.com/how-to-invest/8-stocks-that-could-have-made-you-rich
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Buffett has done a hundred bagger (twice!!!) with BRK. A good amount of currently very large companies (Can. Natural, Expeditors INTL, Fairfax, Fastenal, Microsoft, Stryker, Walmart, ...) have been 100 + baggers in recent times.
Now, of all the informed folks on this board, any idea of what stock (at current prices) has a shot of being of 100 bagger over the next 20-30 years?
Thanks
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On one corner Buffett, on the other Watsa/Sprott...
Pick your corner!
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Chou has done very well in North America. His European performance is not satisfactory, not average, just plain bad. Maybe it will get better over time?
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Yes I have been looking at Chou's funds but as an European I can't buy any.
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The best European value funds that are offered in Europe and that I know of are:
Flinvest Entrepreneurs (French fund)
Bestinver Bestinfond (Spanish fund)
The managers have a very long track record
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Excel + Qmatix
Google Docs does not work well with non North American stock prices (some are included, others not)
best stock screeners
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