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frog03

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    Vito Maida

    in General Discussion

    Posted

    I don't like the chart gross of all fees.  Arlington Value has also used a similar chart earlier this year.

    Why do successful investors fees like they have to show gross of all fees?  Net of all fees in these two cases is certainly good enough...

    European Stocks

    in General Discussion

    Posted

    Flinvest does publish their top holdings monthly (thru email) but you need to be acknowledged as an ower to receive the mail.

     

    Moneta Micro Entreprises has, as far I as know, the very best record of any mutual fund in Europe but is now closed.  They also disclose their top positions monthly as well.

    Who are the other nine?

    in Fairfax Financial

    Posted

    In M&T's bank presentations, they list the top US performers (stock price + dividends) since 1980.

     

    The first five:

    1) Eaton Vance 25.1%

    2) Limited Brands 23.3%

    3) Gap 22.8%

    4) Progressive 22.8%

    5) TJX 22.6%

    ...

    11) Leucadia 20.9%

    ...

    17) Berkshire 20.2%

     

    In Canada, depending on the metric (book or total return) and exact time interval, CNQ and Alimentation Couche Tard have done about as well as Fairfax.

     

    Tepper

    in General Discussion

    Posted

    Thanks. I knew about GBL, but hadn't heard about IDI. I'll have a look, it sounds interesting.

     

    **********

    Not technically part of the Eurozone but Kinnevik in Sweden has done 20% a year on average over 30 years and also trades at a nice discount.  This reminds me of North America where some of the best capital allocator companies such as BRK, FFH or LUK basically trade at close to book value when they have killed the indices.  Better capital allocator than average at cheaper than average multiples should certainly prove rewarding over time.

    Tepper

    in General Discussion

    Posted

    Quote from: txitxo on December 28, 2012, 03:05:39 AM

     

          Gio, nice to see you quoting Capablanca. He was truly an artist.

     

          I fully agree with Howard Marks, and he was vindicated by 2008-2009. But I am very reluctant to hold large amounts of cash. I've looked a lot into timing systems, and I think I've found a very good one but I am still skeptical about it because there has only been a couple of bear markets to test it. And I've done many backtests which prove that unless you time exceedingly well your entry and exit points, your performance will be inferior with respect to buy and hold.

       

        So putting together macro and micro, the optimum strategy should be to buy cheap stocks in cheap markets. You do your  favorite variant of value investing, either mechanical investing as I like, owner-managers which is your specialty, Grahamesque cigar-butts, or Buffett-like palaces with moats. But you buy those stocks in markets which are statistically cheap according to all the possible indicators you can muster. You only go to cash if all the markets in the world become expensive at the same time.

     

        Right now my model indicates that sometime before the end of next quarter, US, Canadian and Australian stocks are about to start a big decline. The UK market is pretty rich too. This is a statistical prediction, and I have no idea what will be the actual detonator of the decline. But if that does not happen, this time will be truly different.

     

        On the other hand, Euro-zone markets are very cheap and buying value stocks there should work very well in 2013. It is a pity that there are no real equivalents of LUK, BRK, MKL, FFH, etc. in the Eurozone. That would simplify the life of the part-time investor significantly...

     

    **********

    There are some in the Eurozone but not many and unlike the US examples, they are not insurance related.  I can think of two.

    GBL in Belgium (partnership between the Belgian Frere family and the Canadian Desmarais family)

    IDI in France (listed company that invests mostly in private equity.  66% owned by three main managers (OK 2, one passed away recently). 15% return to stockholders since 1991 despite currently trading at 2/3 of Book value.

    There got to be others.  Anybody has other names?

    What would you guys buy TODAY? given 100% cash

    in General Discussion

    Posted

    Some comments on Bestinver.

     

    1)  They always compare their performance vs. index without dividends

    2)  Once you include dividends, their hedge fund launched five years ago has not beaten the index

    3)  The position reports are as of 6/30 on the fact sheet

     

    So, the investment may be fine but a positive view by Bestinver is only a starting point...

    Arlington Ranger Fund October Letter

    in General Discussion

    Posted

    His outperformance is really mind boggling.  Very few managers beat the index by 5 points or more annually LT.  Extremely few do 10 points or more.  Doing 20+ points for 10+ years is really a fantastic accomplishment.  The comparison with Buffett's early years is very telling.  Will be very interesting to see how this young man develops.

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