Parsad

Hi Netnet, You forgot the link. Cheers!

Article on the Goldman investment Berkshire made one year ago. Cheers! http://www.cnbc.com/id/32982928

Hi Folks, Unfortunately, as we work our way through this process with management, all future discussions on ITEX will be removed from this board. Our group is the beneficial owner of 12% of ITEX, and as owner of this message board, we do not want to ever be viewed as a large shareholder wielding undue influence. Investors are more than welcome to discuss this company elsewhere, but unfortunately it will have to be excluded from here. Perhaps, Farnamstreet can facilitate your discussions on this matter. Thanks very much! Cheers!

does anyone know how much of Mr. Watsa net work is in Fairfax financial? Over 90%. Cheers!

California unemployment at 12% is the highest in nearly 70 years. Remember, this does not include people whose hours have been cut, or those that have fallen off the actively seeking employment rolls. House prices and unemployment need to stabilize there...as California goes, so does most of the U.S. Cheers! http://www.nytimes.com/2009/09/19/us/19calif.html?hpw

As many of us suggested here, Fairfax has upped their offer to $65, and I think this will be accepted by the shareholders. Cheers! http://www.marketwatch.com/story/fairfax-to-commence-tender-offer-for-minority-stake-in-odyssey-re-for-65-per-share-in-cash-2009-09-18

Up from 29 in July. Also 12 states now have 10% or greater unemployment, with five above 12%. Cheers! http://finance.yahoo.com/news/42-states-lose-jobs-in-August-apf-1171568305.html;_ylt=AvepGKi88X6XucfhRRKzkoi7YWsA;_ylu=X3oDMTE1Yms0aGwwBHBvcwMzBHNlYwN0b3BTdG9yaWVzBHNsawM1c3RhdGVzc2Vlam8-?x=0&.v=3&sec=topStories&pos=1&asset=&ccode=

I'm sure some of the criticism is fair. A couple of points he didn't make. - He commented on shares increasing, but did not note the growth in book value and investments per share, or for that matter earnings. All grew significantly faster than the growth in shares. - Yes, the company did face a situation that was very precarious back in 2003, but errors in judgement happen. Today the company is in better shape than ever. - Only a handful of people around the world would have been able to turn this ship around when it began floundering in 2003. Prem deserves to be recognized in the category of great insurance executives, along with the likes of Warren Buffett. Cheers!

Another interview with Buffett: http://money.cnn.com/video/fortune/2009/09/15/f_mpw_buffett_recession.fortune/ Cheers!

Interesting, but short, interview with Becky Quick, where Buffett discusses some of the calls he received that weekend one year ago. Part two is available tomorrow. Cheers! http://www.cnbc.com/id/32867249

Mdhousa, Your criticisms seem valid, or at least sound valid. The problem is, that if an investment manager utters one thing, then investors view it as fact. There is no room for modification, editing, context or even evolution of the idea...the manager said it, therefore it is a fixed idea. I have one investment partner who will absolutely fixate on one comment and act on it. I don’t know how many times I’ve had to corral his impulses, and his family knows that too, but he has a heart of gold and I’ve learned to deal with this. For example, you went and made a post, now some other fellow can come over to it and critique your comments, and it doesn't matter the context of what you said, or perhaps you didn't even complete your thought or discussion on the matter. - you said you were considering investing with Mohnish, yet you say that he is doing a lot of handwaving and is now swimming naked - you attended the meeting, yet you didn't ask him all the same questions you just discussed with the board - you listened to him tell a story about Munger, but did not ask any questions at that point You obviously have explanations for the three points above, and it isn't fair if I jump to a conclusion is it? Buffett talks about derivatives being weapons of mass destruction, yet he went and invested Berkshire in them. How many investors suggested that was hypocrtical? And it probably was in most respects. I don’t agree with a few of Mohnish’s ideas…for example, I absolutely believe in concentrated positions…ten or less…even if managing other people’s money. I think magic formula investing is akin to an investor looking at P/E, P/B and some other metric, and thinking they’ve necessarily got something here…phhhppphhttt! I use a mental checklist, and don’t do written ones…I probably never will. But these are my personality flaws or perhaps benefits…I don’t know yet!  An investment manager has to manage capital in the best interest of their partners. There are certain restrictions in the way they can operate and things that they can do, and that has to be counterbalanced with the emotional constitution of their partners. Mohnish suffered a tremendous loss last year, and that will automatically make an investment manager look for new and better ideas. That is Mohnish’s evolution as a manager. Some things may seem hypocritical today, because he believed them yesterday. And some of the current ideas may evolve again in the future. That is the business, that is learning, and that is making mistakes and earning your stripes. The end result is that he lost a fortune last year, and he’s made a fortune this year. The question is, where will Mohnish be relative to the indices ten years out. I’m betting he’ll do better than them, but not nearly as well as in the first ten years…simply because of size and more diversification. Cheers!

I got in from Chicago at 3am last night and am sick from all the air conditioning. I had a late breakfast, so I think that's what did it. Cheers!

Hi Sreenr, Basically, Mohnish was saying that the value of certain investments like the S&P puts contracts will not be known for many years, thus that is a question mark. So when you are doing intrinsic value calculations, make sure you are very conservative in your estimates, as that remains an underlying risk. I think everyone assumes that it will work out ok, but to protect yourself as an investor, you need a signficant margin of safety. Cheers!

Mohnish was very funny! I told him in another life he was either a very well-liked professor or a stand-up comedian, as his ability to transfer knowledge with terrific analogies and humor is very good. A few things he said: - They are net sellers of stocks presently, and he feels retail and consumer spending will be tough for a few years. - Pabrai funds have done over 100% this year, but have a bit more to do to get back up to the peak levels. - On the question of how to raise capital for a fund: You have to convince your partners that it is their sole purpose in life to raise money for you! I was cracking up laughing after hearing that one. - On a question regarding one of his mistakes...I believe Compucredit: I was stupid! Again the audience roared in laughter. - As dcollon mentioned, checklists have become important to the Pabrai Funds...but they don't decide on an investment. They just give an overview of how deficient or acceptable the idea is. - On the idea of a less concentrated portfolio when he brought it up with Munger, who interrupted him and said: You are going in the complete opposite direction of my thought process on this matter. He said Munger accepted his proposal once he explained that it was because he was managing other people's capital, rather than his own money. - Mohnish experiments with strategies in his own portfolio. - Believes Berkshire’s value should be calculated in the most conservative manner possible at this point, as the range has widened significantly due to the long-term and incalculable investments Buffett has made recently…primarily the derivatives bets. Anyone who has read “The Snowball” knows that one of Buffett’s strongest characteristics is his ability to make others feel better about themselves. Mohnish seems to be learning this little philosophy, because regardless of the questions asked, he always made the individual feel as though that question was the best one asked yet. His presentation skills have become incredibly polished, as is his delivery. He also recalls name after name of people coming up to him without having to look at their nametags. Pretty impressive stuff considering how many people he meets these days all over the world! Even Mohnish’s wife Harina remarkably keeps up with all the names and faces, and greets everyone so warmly with great interest. The atmosphere at Carlucci’s is very intimate, so it is easier to move from table to table than say the meeting in California which is in a gigantic ballroom. About 200 people or so came to the Chicago meeting, whereas California has around 300-350 people attend. We had about 15 people or so show up to the lounge before the meeting, and it was nice to meet them all. I really enjoyed my brief time in Chicago…beautiful architecture, restaurants, people, sights…very nice! Plus I hit three Steak’n Shakes in 48 hours! Cheers!

It's great to own the market, but I like businesses that actually make money. Hopefully Sokol gets this thing making a regular profit one day. Cheers! http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=aAEFzKSadxTg

Meeting isn't till tonight. We'll let you know tomorrow or Monday. Cheers!

Gurufocus corrected their previous article that implied Fairfax was buying ORH above the $60 offer price. I have it from the horse's mouth that the implication was completely erroneous. Cheers! http://www.gurufocus.com/news.php?id=68897

Article from China Daily on Buffett's congratulatory video for Li Guilian, clothier Dayang Trands Chairwoman. Cheers! http://www.chinadaily.com.cn/bizchina/2009-09/10/content_8675012.htm

Hi Folks, So after talking to Joe, it's all set for Saturday in Chicago. We will meet at 2pm at the Marriott Suites O'Hare (6155 North River Road, Rosemont, IL (847)696-4400). From there, we'll just walk over to the Pabrai Funds AGM at Carlucci's around 4pm. See you all there! Cheers!

Only 12% of those eligible for loan modifications have been helped. Cheers! http://finance.yahoo.com/news/Treasury-says-millions-more-rb-1620457917.html;_ylt=AqdYntKIuOhUrMF6XI4bkoa7YWsA;_ylu=X3oDMTE1MmM5cWxnBHBvcwM1BHNlYwN0b3BTdG9yaWVzBHNsawN0cmVhc3VyeXNheXM-?x=0&sec=topStories&pos=3&asset=&ccode=

Interesting! Five years ago, Prem couldn't get anyone to lend him money other than a few close friends (Cundill, Southeastern, Markel, et al) and today the institutions are giving him discounts to do business with them. Why not raise a crapload of equity and buy back Odyssey! Cheers!

Study indicating HSBC and Berkshire Hathaway executives should receive the largest bonuses for performance since they did the best over the 2002-2009 cycle. http://www.reuters.com/article/pressReleasesMolt/idUSTRE5872ZR20090908 I think these studies are usually somewhat useless, since virtually any large firm can make their executives look the best over very specific time periods. I would much rather see executives have to invest half their income or bonuses into the shares of the companies they work for, and they cannot sell them for five years after their term or career is finished! Cheers!

Tightening credit standards leads to a record drop in consumer credit. Not necessarily a bad thing, since standards were previously so lax, but it does mean that lower leverage means lower consumer purchases. Cheers! http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601068&sid=aAYZpSNGocVM

Wall Street Journal article discussing healthcare for India's impoverished weavers. ICICI Lombard is one of the primary carriers of insurance for this category of workers, and it discusses the successes and failures of getting the weavers to accept and use the program. Cheers! http://online.wsj.com/article/SB125211458177588203.html?ru=yahoo&mod=yahoo_hs

From the New York Times: http://www.nytimes.com/2009/09/08/business/economy/08buffett.html?hp Cheers!