Parsad

Parsad, Please don't take this the wrong way, but just because you haven't met them doesn't mean that they don't exist. In fact, I think that a number of people, let's say Jim Simons as one example, would certainly disagree with your second sentence. You could very well be correct. I'm still not convinced of Simon's results, so you'll have to view me as a heretic. Cheers!

Nice interview Tariq! Cheers!

The other issue facing the economy, along with Alt-A and Opt-A refinancings, are the commercial property mortgages and decreasing values as commercial properties are sold over the next two years. I had mentioned that one of our partners renewed leases on his commercial properties by offering an across the board 20% rent reduction. He was probably smart to do that this year, as rents will probably decrease more than that in 2010 and into 2011. Cheers! http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601109&sid=aFp6TE9kWkqk

Excellent answer Broxburnboy! Cheers!

Seeking Alpha has Markel's transcript. Cheers! http://seekingalpha.com/article/154639-markel-corporation-q2-2009-earnings-call-transcript?page=-1

Hi Kumar, I think El-Erian had a very good answer for that as the interviewer said the same thing. Any investor has to have some broad understanding of the capital markets. Bonds finance corporate America, thus what happens there is directly correlated to equities. Plus some of us do buy bonds! ;D Cheers!

The Brick was Canada's dominant furniture retailer for many, many years when Bill Comrie was at the helm. The business went downhill after he retired from the company shortly after it went public. There's a good biography of him below. A great story about how he built the business. Cheers! http://www.retailcouncil.org/news/media/press/2008/pr20080516.asp

you don't even like their management even after the boardroom shake up? No, my comments were directed at previous management over the last decade. I don't know much about the current group. Cheers!

Actually Bill Gross' August Letter is quite good and expounds on El-Erian's comments. This is pretty much what we talked about in our 2nd Q letter...low growth, modest prosperity, increased frictional costs, more efficient business, higher unemployment and several years of continued recovery. He also has some wonderful shots at the money management business. Cheers! http://www.pimco.com/LeftNav/Featured+Market+Commentary/IO/2009/Investment+Outlook+August+2009+Gross+Investment+Potion.htm

I don't always agree with Bill Gross, but I've come to appreciate the clarity with which Mohammed El-Erian, CEO of PIMCO, portrays the credit markets and economic environment. I don't think I've heard an explanation as simple and clear as his in this CNBC interview. Cheers! Story: http://www.cnbc.com/id/32334381 Interview: http://www.cnbc.com/id/32200989/

I thought I would post this here before somebody jumps on me! ;D Due to Peter's macroeconomic bets and closeouts of short positions, he's had a tough first half as his 2nd Quarter Letter came out today...down a little over 30% for the year. Just like Mohnish last year, or Sardar when he started buying Steak'n Shake, or Peter today, investors could very easily face significant volatility when they have capital allocated in the markets or within concentrated funds. I expect just like Mohnish, and just like Sardar, Peter will turn around the tough first half, and over the long-term investors will do fine with him. In July he was up 9% already. My thoughts on why that will happen are simply because good, ethical managers learn from errors and improve on their strategy. Anyway, I thought I should post that here since everyone was discussing Lindmark Capital, and I didn't want someone looking surprised when they read the 2nd Q Letter. Cheers!

Here's a pretty bleak forecast by Comstock Partners. I don't think we will see Japan. I'm more inclined to believe we will see 1974-1982. They have some pretty good points though and some good slides. Cheers! http://www.comstockfunds.com/default.aspx?act=Newsletter.aspx&category=SpecialReport&newsletterid=1473&menugroup=Home&AspxAutoDetectCookieSupport=1 http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601109&sid=aX39_VW6pf3U

Both my friends, Tim McElvaine and Francis Chou, are simply the two greatest guys in the value investing world. Humble doesn't begin to describe these two. I don't know who the four managers are that were selected to manage Berkshire's portfolio in Buffett's demise, but both of these guys would have been ideal candidates in my mind. One was the genius boy wonder at Cundill, and the other was the genius boy wonder at Hamblin-Watsa. Neither would ever say something like that, but I certainly can. Bob Thompson, in his book Stock Market Superstars, covers some of the best managers in Canada. For some reason, I didn't notice this on Tim's site at www.mcelvaine.com, but he has an excerpt from his chapter available on there. Thanks David Lau for pointing it out. I had read it already, but didn't know it was available to the public. Anyway, here it is and I think you'll enjoy it. Cheers! http://www.mcelvaine.com/Pdfs/2008%20-%20Tim%20McElvaine%20booklet%20(Thompson).pdf

$3.3B in net earnings for the 2nd Q. Cheers! http://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1067983/000115752309005813/a6021509.htm

I've never liked management at KFS, but I know a bunch of boardmembers have followed this thing since the early days of the MSN BRK Board. They've killed their dividend after their recent quarter. Probably a good thing. Cheers! http://www.globeinvestor.com/servlet/story/RTGAM.20090807.wkingswayfinancial0807/GIStory/

Guru Focus had a little breakdown of Fairfax's investment results in the 2nd Q. Cheer! http://www.gurufocus.com/news.php?id=63808

Most people will continue to pay their mortgage, but obviously like anything, there is a moving line where some owners will feel that it simply isn't worth it to continue paying interest on an asset that has depreciated significantly from when they bought it. If the statistic was 25%, you could probably assume that 1-2% may default. If the statistic jumps to 50%, then reasonably you could assume that default rate jumps to 2-4%. Most bank loan loss portfolios for mortgages are around 1-1.25%. In these times, they've increased that to 1.5-2%. So what happens if the loan losses climb above 3%. Then you also have institutions that wrote more Alt-A and Option-A mortgages...the delinquincy and default rates on those will be far higher. The statistic has meaning...the question is how high or low are the analysts from where we eventually end up. Cheers!

Hank Greenberg has settled his case with the SEC. What's idiotic is this comment by SEC Enforcement Director Robert Khuzami: "Corporate leaders cannot avoid the truth and consequences of their companies' performance by using improper accounting gimmicks and signing off on distorted financial reports..." ...Unless they are very wealthy and can just pay $15M. Sheesh! Cheers! http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=ar98JzRqWfR4

Another article by CNNMoney covering the same report. They have details from other analysts and their estimates. The Deutsche Bank analysis is the most dire, but the others aren't that far off either. http://money.cnn.com/2009/08/06/real_estate/underwaterworld/index.htm Behaviors have changed somewhat and I believe we will continue to see greater psychological effects on consumers from this era. One of our partners in our U.S. fund was telling me how things are so bad in California, that when it came time for lease renewals on his commercial and residential properties, he had to throw out 20% across the board rent decreases to keep his tenants. I asked him if his other friends with properties were doing the same. He said "Hell yeah! They've got no choice!" Cheers!

I don't think the author actually makes valid points on the subject matter. It isn't just Buffett benefitting from the government's largesse. Without the bailout, the average consumer's savings accounts, GIC's, mutual funds, investment accounts, etc. would have all been at significant risk. It was a systemic risk that would have affected everyone from the very rich to the very poor. Even Prem would have suffered some losses on investments and they were well-prepared for armageddon. Cheers!

Here's another guy trying to make a name for himself. They're coming out of the woodworks! http://blogs.reuters.com/rolfe-winkler/2009/08/04/buffetts-betrayal/ - He doesn't mention that Goldman and American Express have already repaid their TARP. - Wells took the damn money because they wanted to support the program. They could easily pay it back, but the government's own stress tests (which negate credit quality of mortgages or credit card holders) don't allow it. - Berkshire only owns $34M of BAC stock, which accounts for the bulk of the TARP funds numbnuts refers to...probably a Lou Simpson investment...not sure how rich Berkshire shareholders will get from that investment. - Berkshire also only owns about $37M of STI...again a Lou Simpson call most likely. Cheers!

Bloomberg article discussing the optimistic view on low-rated debt. Includes a short comment by Biglari associate Martin Fridson of Fridson Investment Advisors. Cheers! http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20603037&sid=aKAEcqlaVgfs

CNBC article discussing the upcoming quarterly report. Cheers! http://www.cnbc.com/id/32300978

A couple of Deutsche Bank analysts are predicting that nearly half of U.S. homeowners with mortgages will owe more than their home's value by the end of this housing recession. I think the number will go significantly higher from where it is today (close to 30%), but I think these two are probably way on the high end. Cheers! http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20603037&sid=ac9y1xr7yNhQ

But I thought naked-short selling doesn't really exist? ;D Cheers!