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Parsad

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Everything posted by Parsad

  1. Both Wells and Overstock won Compuware's award. Cheers! http://www.marketwatch.com/story/wells-fargo-named-2011-compuware-best-of-the-web-award-winner-2012-02-02 http://www.marketwatch.com/story/overstockcom-wins-compuwares-2011-best-of-the-web-gold-award-2012-02-02
  2. They never take into account six-sigma events. Alpha schmalpha! Giants knock out Patriots 27-24! http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2012-02-02/super-bowl-winning-quants-say-patriots-will-beat-giants-by-more-than-three.html Cheers!
  3. I'll take this one. The reason is due to Zuckerberg's "comprehensive security program." The reason why you're even able to comment on it is because elsewhere in the S-1, FB has outlined the terms of its private aircraft use. They state explicitly that the CEO and COO are allowed to use the private aircraft for business purposes. Zuckerberg is allowed to use the private aircraft for any purpose because his security program requires that he doesn't fly commercial. If Zuckerberg travels with family and friends, the flight cost attributed to them is added to Zuckerberg's compensation so that everyone can see. So, not really bone chilling and it seems like an honest inclusion to me. From the S-1: You can't be this naive? Do you really believe that Zuckerberg is such a high profile human being that he needs to only fly private? While Senators and Congressman still fly first class? Moreover, if he is part of such a comprehensive security program why does he knock down pints at the local bars in Palo Alto, and where is his "security detail" I have never seen a photo of him surrounded by anybody. This is just a way to rationalize his usage of a private jet utilizing shareholder funds. Actually, I'm not bothered by this at all. I would never fly private, but then again, I would never waste a dime flying first class either...and I can't ever imagine being so well-known that anyone would ever try to kidnap me. This is no different than thousands of other executives who fly by private jet due to efficiency, security, convenience and flexibility. Buffett does...Prem does...and they are some of the most careful and prudent CEO's around with shareholder capital. Zuckerberg is probably one of the most well-known figures in business today, and probably 100 times more immediately recognizable than most senators, congressman et al. On the other subject of valuation: I would never touch this thing, but it's exact worth is something that is somewhat intangible at the moment if we go by recent history. Who thought iTunes would have such a dramatic effect on the music, video or television industry? Or Amazon on the book publishing business! How about what Netflix did to Blockbuster? I never thought Facebook would become as prominent and utilized as it is, nor did I see what Google would turn their search business into. Friggin' search alogrithm of internet websites somehow killed traditional advertising and pretty much the newspaper business which relied on the high rates for advertising. Go figure! Facebook's value isn't in the facebook social utility, but the intangible value of what that virtual monopoly will allow it to venture into and exploit its built-in base of users. Anything could happen! I'm not good at predicting the outcome of disruptive technologies, and as such I have no ability to value this thing. Cheers!
  4. I stated this some time ago when there were questions about BAC raising capital, and said that they could easily sell and leaseback their hordes of corporate offices around the United States. A rough estimate from me says that they could raise anywhere from another $5B-$7B for some of their fantastic real estate. Glad they are now doing so! Cheers! http://online.wsj.com/article/BT-CO-20120201-720714.html
  5. This post too falls under the conjecture bucket for me. Who's to say the day we posted the "What did everyone buy today" thread was not going to be the day stocks bottomed? The fact that stocks panicked further and we had to average down is only a testament to the fact that nobody really knows when the bottom is in. Our jobs are to buy securities when they fall below our assessment of intrinsic value, and historically, the best time to do so are during major down days. Macro should be disregarded, if enough margin of safety is presented by Mr. Market. Maybe there is more pain to come this year, but the fact that in 30 days most equities discussed on this board have risen by 30-50% indicates that they were severely undervalued. I remember my thesis was wrong in late 2008 and early 2009 too! Funny thing is, I was more concerned about macro last year, than I was in 2009, and I'm even more concerned now than I was last year. That doesn't mean I will not buy something that is undervalued. Anyone who thinks they can time it accurately, or that macro should decide when you buy and sell gives their own abilities far too much credit. Let me pose a few questions: - Was Wells Fargo a bad investment at $16 in 2008, even though it went down to $9 in 2009? - Like I said, I was buying a company through much of the last half of 2011, that traded for less than cash on the books after all liabilities. What am I going to wait for if it takes me months to accumulate a position at that price? If it goes lower, don't you think I would just buy even more? - Did Buffett stop buying investments because he was concerned about Europe or the United States debt? - For those of you that have believed for nearly four years that the world is in for a hell of a reckoning, and base your decisions on macro, politics, fiscal excess of soverign nations, etc...did Prem stop buying businesses, even though he was taking a cautionary position with the portfolio? View the world with skepticism, because that is what makes the value investor different than just any other investor. But hold fast to the credence of buying investments that are undervalued and provide a margin of safety. You toss that away because of macro views and you may be making a significant long-term mistake. None of us are buying the market! Cheers!
  6. I plan on using the Buffett model - Plenty of great ideas already out there, by people who have the drive, energy and passion to see it through, so if and when I'm blessed to be in Mohnish's position, I will simply give some of the money to people like Mohnish. Already doing so in a much smaller scale, but eventually hope to do it in a more significant fashion. Cheers!
  7. We still had a chunk of cash, but all the positions we took are up about 18-20%+ since the middle of December. Our financial equity positions have made up for more than the losses on the original warrants we bought earlier in the year. OSTK is the only thing still keeping us from going above our high watermark from June. Hopefully, they've been working on turning around revenues and that changes after the 4th Q and 1st Q reports come out. We have alot of cash from ideas that weren't long-term positions and went up alot. Also, we sold our Winn-Dixie position when it was bought out. I think things will get very choppy again through the year and we have plenty of liquidity. Have not and will not sell a single share in BAC or WFC. Cheers!
  8. Hi Folks, We are 80% sold out, so please get your orders for tickets in soon! Go to www.cornerofberkshireandfairfax.ca and the ticket purchase box is on the right hand side. Thanks very much! Sanjeev
  9. Looks like they have tape recorded conversations on these guys, but us Fairfax and Overstock shareholders know it's a hell of alot bigger than this. Cheers!
  10. Article on Buffett told Debbie Bosanek that now is a great time for her to buy a home. Cheers! http://www.forbes.com/sites/janetnovack/2012/01/27/warren-buffetts-advice-to-a-boomer-buy-your-sunbelt-retirement-home-now/?partner=yahootix
  11. Ajit Jain was interviewed by the prosecution and defense in the Rajat Gupta insider trading case. Cheers! http://money.msn.com/business-news/article.aspx?feed=OBR&data-ipsquote-timestamp=20120127&id=14736127
  12. Don't get carried away. He's going to make investment bets on various things and like any manager, some will work out and some won't. He's making the best calculated investments he can. Half a billion in RIMM, which sounds like a massive amount to you and me, is less than a 2% position for a business that has $30B in assets. Even if you only go by investable assets of $23B, it accounts for less than a 2.5% position. So everyone keep your pants on! :o Cheers!
  13. Article on Debbie Bosanek and Warren Buffett. Cheers! http://www.cnbc.com/id/46163945?__source=yahoo%7Cheadline%7Cquote%7Ctext%7C&par=yahoo
  14. Agreed. He entered a grey area where a reasonable case can be made either way. His big mistake was failure to exercise an abundance of caution, or use the Buffett standard of WSJ page A1. He should have known better and as his public profile increases he will get less of the benefit of the doubt. As a matter of habit, I try to conclude each conversation with an insider by confirming that material non-public information was not disclosed. Had Einhorn asked that simple question on the recorded call, he would not be in the trouble he finds himself in today. That's no free pass. It's the reasonable man test that applies. It's better to avoid any questions about market sensitive topics. Then, if something material to trading should be revealed anyway, don't trade on it. If something material reinforces a trading strategy in progress, cancel future trades until the news becomes public. Yup! Either that, or follow Mohnish's rule...don't talk to management! That's pretty simple too, but every investor wants a leg-up, or they need confirmation, or what have you and they talk to management. Tell me, why do smart investors actually need to speak to management? Buffett never even visits the head offices or warehouses of many of the businesses he owns. He goes solely by the financial statements. Yes, when he was younger he would do more legwork, but he also did alot of other things when he was younger that he doesn't need to do today. Einhorn has zero excuses for what happened. This is a guy who tears apart CEO's of other corporations because of something they did that was slightly out of whack...never mind actually fraudulent or fined by a securities commission. There is no underlying context or explanation for what happened to him. He received non-public information on which he traded...the end! Cheers!
  15. Wells Fargo accounted for 30% of the mortgage originations in the 4th quarter! Cheers! http://finance.yahoo.com/news/bank-america-extends-drop-mortgage-211526600.html;_ylt=Avf708Siwu1twQazlDrQfnWiuYdG;_ylu=X3oDMTQ0ajhtMTltBG1pdANGaW5hbmNlIEZQIFRvcCBTdG9yeSBSaWdodARwa2cDM2QyMmRhOWUtOTIzYS0zN2EyLWJiOTgtYTNjM2RkNjExYjFkBHBvcwMzBHNlYwN0b3Bfc3RvcnkEdmVyAzA0ZjQwYTUwLTQ4NjMtMTFlMS1hZjdlLTg0NjM5MGU2NDhjOA--;_ylg=X3oDMTFvdnRqYzJoBGludGwDdXMEbGFuZwNlbi11cwRwc3RhaWQDBHBzdGNhdANob21lBHB0A3NlY3Rpb25zBHRlc3QD;_ylv=3
  16. Creeping closer to a deal...maybe by the weekend. Cheers! http://finance.yahoo.com/news/creditors-could-accept-lower-coupon-080703727.html;_ylt=AhB4c64W6KBjHkTtsN97ttuiuYdG;_ylu=X3oDMTQ0dm9mazNoBG1pdANGaW5hbmNlIEZQIFRvcCBTdG9yeSBSaWdodARwa2cDNmEyZTAwNTctZjEyOC0zYTYwLWFlNzctMmRiMjc0OWZlYTE2BHBvcwM1BHNlYwN0b3Bfc3RvcnkEdmVyAzQ3YmYzZGUwLTQ4NzMtMTFlMS1hMzUzLWYwMjA0NjVlODNiMg--;_ylg=X3oDMTFvdnRqYzJoBGludGwDdXMEbGFuZwNlbi11cwRwc3RhaWQDBHBzdGNhdANob21lBHB0A3NlY3Rpb25zBHRlc3QD;_ylv=3
  17. Slow and steady. Cheers! http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2012-01-26/north-american-rail-freight-carloads-for-jan-21-table-.html?cmpid=yhoo
  18. I still think that the best way forward for RIM is that they should either become a hardware company, a software company, or split themselves in two. I would also support a niche business model where they service only the business world, with product development geared towards security, reliability, device fleet management, and other business-oriented concerns. Right now, they appear to be fighting too many battles on too many fronts, and I think it's pretty clear that they are losing most of them. I think you're dead on here and they need to focus solely on business, security, etc. Unfortunately, there are facets of their business they are going to have to add to, so they can compete with others...such as cloud computing is becoming an integral part of data management for businesses. The easier they can make the set-up and transition for IT departments, the more likely that will be the system people want to use. Apple is making inroads into business users because they are slowly offering the broadest array of services, and the useability factor is extremely high. Most of their competition is going to have to focus on niche areas to survive. Cheers!
  19. Jamie Dimon says that a Greek default would have almost zero direct effect on U.S. banks, but there could be some indirect effect. Cheers! http://www.cnbc.com/id/46144727
  20. Foreclosures still account for a hefty percentage of housing sales. Cheers! http://www.cnbc.com/id/46146636
  21. Doesn't matter if it is a grey area. If it's grey, don't tread there! Pretty simple. Cheers!
  22. Yeah, his proof reader (legal counsel) should probably have caught that. Or he could also just be saying, yeah I traded on insider information. Cheers!
  23. Parsad, In the CNBC summary there are mentions of the reduction of some lines like Private Equity and Prop Trading but nothing on the live interview. There is only one segment on the site,. Do you know if more are coming? I was wondering the same thing. I can't find anything else, so my only guess is that they either edited the interview or added some other material that wasn't asked during the actual on-camera interview. Cheers!
  24. Interesting article on affiliates and nexus tax bills in various states. Cheers! http://www.nytimes.com/2012/01/26/business/smallbusiness/drive-to-tax-internet-sales-harms-affiliate-marketers.html?partner=yahoofinance
  25. Here's a short interview with BAC CEO Brian Moynihan...not a great speaker, but I like the way he gets things done. He feels good about the stress test, reduction of balance sheet is pretty much done, doesn't think they need to raise more capital, and is now focused on ramping up the core earnings of the banking business. Cheers! http://www.cnbc.com/id/46132121
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