Parsad

I don't think you'll see that sort of contraction in the United States, but you will see flat to zero growth. This is very much a repeat of 1937, but in Europe! They are headed for a severe recession...depression in some regions already...and that level of contraction may happen over there. That will mean continued low interest policy here and slower growth. Let's just hope nothing significant happens in China or Japan. Cheers!

Not sure what the sarcasm is for Hester. He laid out all of the pros and cons, including the fact that the financials may be fraudulent in the annual report. He said that he is taking a basket approach because of the risk. Like others have said here before, it's so easy to be critical when you hide behind anonymity. At least I can give Carson Block that much credit, because he put his name out there, but alot of other people, and maybe I'm pointing you out and maybe I'm not, are a hell of a lot braver when they have nothing to stand behind other than a message board username. Cheers!

It all depends on your needs and level of comfort. There is no one specific answer that fits everyone. Cheers!

Business casual is fine in my opinion. Cheers!

One of our boardmembers had a couple of memorable pictures with Warren last weekend! Cheers! Alan_With_Warren_2012.pdf

Good article by the Globe & Mail on Europe's problems. Cheers! http://www.theglobeandmail.com/report-on-business/international-news/european/austeritys-future-unclear-in-wake-of-euro-zone-elections/article2424904/page1/

Folks, I'm an atheist, but whether all of you like it or not, you already subscribe to a religion. And by religion, I mean a form of ideology that shapes your conduct and culture...the religion of value investing! And I'm a far better person for it. That being said, I think religion has shaped humanity since the beginning, both for better and for worse! So, let's leave it alone and go back to the philosophy we all agree upon...the Buffett principles. Cheers!

Here are a bunch of Berkshire weekend articles and videos. Cheers! Reassurance From Buffett: http://www.omaha.com/article/20120505/MONEY/705069949#reassurance-from-buffett Fantastic pictures from the Omaha World-Herald: http://odc.omaha.com/index.php?u_page=5002&p=3589 Omaha World-Herald Live Blog From Meeting: http://www.omaha.com/article/20120505/MONEY/705069949#chat Buffett Holds Court at Berkshire Hathaway Annual Meeting: http://finance.yahoo.com/blogs/breakout/warren-buffett-holds-court-annual-berkshire-hathaway-shareholders-212750078.html;_ylt=ArSjAY0m.XXGVwRNLG1il8GiuYdG;_ylu=X3oDMTQzZjkxNnZuBG1pdANGaW5hbmNlIEZQIEp1bWJvdHJvbiBMaXRlBHBrZwNiMWRmNzQyMS1kZTMzLTMwMjQtYmJkMi0zOGUyYzk2NDE2NmMEcG9zAzEEc2VjA2p1bWJvdHJvbgR2ZXIDM2FhMTI4YTAtOTc5Zi0xMWUxLWFmZWYtMmNlYjViYzg2NjY1;_ylg=X3oDMTFpNzk0NjhtBGludGwDdXMEbGFuZwNlbi11cwRwc3RhaWQDBHBzdGNhdANob21lBHB0A3NlY3Rpb25z;_ylv=3 Berkshire Shareholder's Meeting: Woodstock For Capitalists http://blogs.wsj.com/deals/2012/05/06/berkshires-shareholder-meeting-the-woodstock-for-capitalists/?mod=yahoo_hs WSJ Interview: http://blogs.wsj.com/deals/2012/05/06/buffett-on-europe-china-berkshire-stock-price/?mod=yahoo_hs Bill Gates and Warren Buffett playing table tennis against Ariel Hsing: http://www.omaha.com/article/20120506/NEWS01/120509834#video-warren-buffett-amp-bill-gates-playing-table-tennis

Our own NormR wrote an article for the Globe & Mail. Cheers! http://www.theglobeandmail.com/globe-investor/investment-ideas/behind-the-numbers/can-fairfaxs-bear-market-strategy-work-for-you/article2423544/

I don't think Twacowfca was saying allow only poor immigrants. He was saying that immigration would be a net positive...all forms be it refugee, entrepreneurial, etc. Cheers!

Most correct! North America was created from such economic calamities in the past. Cheers!

I agree. I think France and Italy will be able to repair their finances similar to the United States, but only after applying cuts to the public sector. Spain is a big problem any way you cut it. Cheers!

You can't just lend to the banks without fixing the underlying capitalization problem. Imagine the Fed window lending to U.S. banks without a TARP program? Just throwing good money after bad. They need to recapitalize the banks now. The other problem is that the bank's can keep lending to the states, but you are pretty much running a Ponzi. If unemployment is increasing, incomes are decreasing, then tax revenues decrease. How can the states pay the banks back, who then have to pay the BCE? The only solution is selective defaults with austerity measures applied after. You cannot help a bad borrower until you've reduced the debt load to a level that is sustainable or repayable. Spain will need a bailout. Cheers!

Yes, exactly. Fairfax shareholders have to be patient, because when cash is king again, Fairfax will be there! Cheers!

It's not as big of a problem for the U.S. They aren't beholden to other soverign nations under a unified currency. In the worst case, the U.S. can inflate their way out of this. It will be painful, but it would be fine. Spain, France, Italy cannot do this unless they leave the Eurozone and that is when the shit hits the fan if any of them do. How do you bailout Spain? What about France? Unless the Eurozone works together, they cannot solve the problem. If the cannot solve the problem due to a lack of agreement, which gets harder and harder due to political change, then the solution of last resort comes to the forefront...breakup of the Union! They only have a couple of weapons...a unanimous decision to fix their financial system...or a change to the EU Agreement on needing to have unanimous decisions. Either way, their will be fights to prevent either option, and then you could still have someone just leave the Union. This is completely uncharted waters and what happens is anyone's guess. Cheers!

I think the market is going to go for a nasty tumble, and Prem's deflation bet will eventually pan out. The world is out of bullets and Europe is devastatingly fragile. There is going to be a nasty liquidity issue in Europe and it isn't far away! I used to think that Prem was like a chess player 2-3 moves ahead of the rest of us, and Buffett was a chess player 4-6 moves ahead of everyone else. It's the other way around! Cheers! Sanjeev, Anytime someone used to bring up the fact that Prem was 100% hedged you always countered with "he is hedged b/c he is an insurance company and needs to preserve the equity position". Do you no longer believe that he is hedged solely for that reason? IMO, if Prem thought the market was as cheap as late 2008/early 2009 he would not be hedged like he is. Was his equity position not as at risk back then when he took the hedges off during that time as it is now? I thought Prem was early, and there were plenty of bullets left...now I don't think there are. Thus the fact that the hedges cost them alot of equity gains. If Europe wasn't such a mess, I would not be holding so much cash, as the U.S. has made every effort to move forward. But Europe is a different basket of nutjobs, and they don't want to work together to get themselves out of this. I still think in Prem's case, hedges are far more of a necessity due to their leverage. We have lots of cash, no hedges in the Canadian fund, and a very modest amount of hedges in the U.S. fund solely to protect the gains in BAC. Cheers!

You'd be correct if we were at the peak. We are not near the peak! It will hit 30%. Cheers!

Well, actually I think Robert Kennedy's quote applys: "Twenty percent of people are always against everything" That 20% usually f**ks up the other 80%...be it Democrat or Republican. Cheers!

My comments were in reference to macroeconomic issues...re: Uccmal and Twcowfca's comments on deflation and hedges. Prem is better at that than Buffett. I didn't say he was better than Buffett at anything else. Cheers!

Is that a relatively new line of thinking (information from the Fairfax weekend)? I don't believe BAC is hitting tangible book this year if that unfolds -- so it makes me think you've recently grown more suspicious of the market. No, I always said that BAC will hit tangible book by Christmas, barring any significant economic meltdown...see post April 10th below: http://www.cornerofberkshireandfairfax.ca/forum/general-discussion/you-know-what-to-do-but-you-have-to-wait-and-wait/msg74177/#msg74177 No, nothing to do with Fairfax or Prem. We sent out emails to our clients before the meeting saying that we were delaying our quarterly letter, because we want to incorporate all information from our dinner, the Fairfax AGM and our AGM. We also said that we were seriously concerned with what was happening in Europe. I thought Europe had the balls to face their own problems head on and throw everything but the kitchen sink at it. I was wrong, and I think they are taking too long. The longer they go, the greater the problems will be. We stated to the attendees at our dinner that Spain was facing conditions similar to the 1930's Great Depression in the United States. This is a particularly worrisome problem. We are only watching the beginning of the contraction in GDP in Spain...and then we don't know what happens after that. I don't think Europe has the firepower to handle this if they allow it to fester. You have 25% unemployment across the board in Spain, and 50% among young adults. One in 3 restaurants have closed! It's a death spiral until they get bailed out...or worse...leave the Union if they can't get the bailout! I've stated on here numerous times that we are increasing cash over the last three months. That we are close to 50% cash. Yet, I have not sold a single share of BAC or WFC. I think the United States is a safe-haven. Those stocks may get hit if the shit hits the fan, but they are well-capitalized and U.S. corporations are in good shape. But things will get volatile again, and it will be messy. Cheers!

I think the market is going to go for a nasty tumble, and Prem's deflation bet will eventually pan out. The world is out of bullets and Europe is devastatingly fragile. There is going to be a nasty liquidity issue in Europe and it isn't far away! I used to think that Prem was like a chess player 2-3 moves ahead of the rest of us, and Buffett was a chess player 4-6 moves ahead of everyone else. It's the other way around! Cheers!

Yeah, I would agree with that assessment. There is tremendous overlap in ideologies now. The Liberal party in British Columbia would have been the Conservative party 15-20 years ago. Obama is considered an extreme socialist Democrat, yet his stance on many economic policies, national defense and foreign policy is more conservative. You can't paint any one party or individual with the same brush. People have to actually vote for the individual candidate now! Cheers!

Obama is no more a divider than the other Democrats or Republicans. I was laughing about how Mitt Romney was saying that Obama is politicizing Osama Bin Laden's death. So, it's perfectly fine if he takes the blame for the economy, which was handed to him on a silver platter during the greatest economic upheaval since the Great Depression, and none of the credit for finally killing the most wanted man in American history! This is the politics and nonsense in Washington. No one coming together and everyone dividng everyone else! If anybody thinks only one party is guilty, then they've got their head up their butt and don't want to admit the truth. This is the way it has always been! Cheers!

No doubt! Cheers!

There are plenty of asses on both sides...and I don't just mean because they are stubborn! ;D Cheers!