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Parsad

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Everything posted by Parsad

  1. I suspect yes, but to a lesser degree. Remember, Coke is as much a distribution company, as it is a beverage company. So as long as they don't rely solely on sugary drinks to generate all their revenue, over time they will be fine if they can find replacements...be it with artificial sweeteners, water, coffee, etc. Whereas, you can't do much to change the addictive nature around tobacco and the ensuing health issues from the toxins. Cheers!
  2. No! ;D We'll put it to work in a jiffy when the opportunity is right. We have been buying a couple of things, but we still have alot of cash...and we aren't suffering from the low yields, believe me! Cheers!
  3. You knew this was coming. In our politically and environmentally over-zealous culture, you knew that soft drink companies were going to be targeted for obesity. I don't think this is an isolated incident, and you'll see more cities, municipalities, and especially school districts doing this. Cheers! http://finance.yahoo.com/news/nyc-proposes-ban-sale-oversize-173930533.html
  4. +1 I expect BRK and BNSF to issue debt any day now... I mean good grief, Buffett could issue $10 Billion at hardly any cost, and turn around buy a huge slug of AIG at 1/2 IV. Long leap pos AIG Yes, I couldn't agree more! Why waste your time shorting treasuries which could remain stagnant for years, and the natural decay of any leveraged ETF will waste away your investment? You are much better off waiting and investing in companies that will take advantage of such low rates...especially those that aren't leveraged and can take on considerable debt to buy out businesses selling for cheap. These are very interesting times, but times that both recent experience and history tells us are nothing new. Cheers!
  5. JPM is spinning out the "special investments" division. Not the source of the losses, but Dimon is taking an axe to past practices on the investment side. I think that's a good first step. Cheers! http://www.cnbc.com/id/47625053
  6. Excellent comment! I couldn't agree more. Cheers!
  7. ;) LOL This thread is a riot. Hey, this site isn't just about making money, but how to spend it and live your life too! We seem to have one of these threads every year. I remember last year's was on groceries and people's buying habits! I believe that was the thread where Ericopoly said his wife had just choked the chicken...literally! She had broken the neck of a hen bare-handed, and that was that night's dinner! ;D Cheers!
  8. The news gets worse and worse about what was happening at JPM under Iskil's trading. Just brutal! Shareholders should be rightly pissed about this. Cheers! http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2012-05-30/jpmorgan-cio-swaps-pricing-said-to-differ-from-investment-bank.html
  9. I don't think he was taking a poke at Buffett. Just using the same analogy Buffett used for gold, he applied it to cash as well. Not terribly original, but I don't think it was a slight at Buffett. Cheers!
  10. Some comments by Moynihan on Europe. I like hearing the CEO say he worries about specific risks every day, and not just feed everyone a line about how strong the balance sheet is or how great their company is. In my book, you make mistakes when you stop worrying and get complacent! Cheers! http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2012-05-30/bofa-sees-euro-breakup-drag-on-global-ecnonomy-as-threat.html
  11. Which markets are you referring to? European or U.S.? I think money is flowing to the U.S., including U.S. equities and debt, so they are doing a bit better than their European and Asian counterparts. Cheers! US market. Just interesting it's holding up the way it has given the macro backdrop is arguably worse than it was last year during the big decline. There will be some correction here, but I think the world is coming to realize that the U.S. is in far better shape than virtually anywhere else...both economically and structurally. They have problems, but they have the capacity and the framework to deal with them. Europe on the other hand will only deal with their problems once the shit hits the fan...it may get messy! Cheers!
  12. Which markets are you referring to? European or U.S.? I think money is flowing to the U.S., including U.S. equities and debt, so they are doing a bit better than their European and Asian counterparts. Cheers!
  13. Your post is misleading and inflammatory, although probably unintentionally. Dewey was never the largest law firm, at least not in recent history. They were ONE OF THE largest law firms in the country, but have had their issues for many years. This isn't indicative of anything other than a poorly run business. They gave guaranteed contracts at too high amounts to too many people. Cash flow isn't what it was during the boom years. The business was run the same way many other things are (governments, companies, etc.) That is, there was an assumption that peak earning years would last forever and reality was quite different. But this has nothing to do with a second wave of anything. You imply that it's something new for lawyers to be laid off? Not in the least. There were huge waves of layoffs in the late 1980s/early 90s, again after the tech meltdown and once again after 2008. Law firms have become just like any other business. There is always an implication that it's unusual for law firms to lay people off, but that's just an image law firms like to portray. They ALL lay people off now and have for at least 10-20 years. It's just the better ones will do it under the rubric of performance based exits or old fashioned pressure and bad working environment. I can't stress enough that this has nothing to do with anything other than a poorly run business. It isn't representative of anything other than that. Dewey isn't the first law firm to file, although it's pretty unusual. Most law firms in deep trouble end up jettisoning a bunch of people and getting "rescued" by some other firm who really just wants a few rainmakers, but will take on some extra baggage. Yeah, I would agree with that. Dewey was poorly run, and like many firms just grew too big during the heyday. Cheers!
  14. Ragu, you should really check the sources involved. Roddy Boyd is pushing the assertions...Sam Antar is tweeting about it (http://es.twitter.com/SamAntar/status/204359301026955264)...and tell me who is funding Boyd's blog? We saw this a couple of times before when Eavis went on his own and when Fabrice Taylor bought "Frank" magazine to turn it into an investigative magazine on Bay Street. Both tanked and went back to writing for papers, because they haven't got a clue what they are talking about, and rely on other people as sources without doing any due diligence themselves. Really, ask yourself why Boyd is writing a blog and exactly who is funding it since he's probably got less than two nickels to rub together. And why would a 2003/2004 issue be suddenly popping up on Boyd's radar screen...oh because the guys funding him are set to go to trial in September! Cheers!
  15. I had always assumed my life would be divided into 2 phases; one in which I aggressively pinched pennies until I reached a certain net worth level that I could retire on if necessary, and then use that financial stability to start my own business in the 2nd phase of my life. However, I have now decided that if it means I don't get to phase to until age 31 or 32 (vs. 30), and I get to enjoy my late 20's more, then I might as well spend what I want, not worry, and look at it as a hedge against death or divorce. I think that is what saving money gives you...that freedom to choose how you live your life. You might as well enjoy some of your savings when you have good knees, hips and no arthritis! ;D It was my penny pinching from my early 20's that allowed me to start the funds years ago, otherwise I would not have been able to make that choice. And then once I started the funds, I decided that unlike many other fund managers, I would continue to pinch pennies so that I didn't have to shut the fund down in the future because spending became wayward. To me, money means nothing more than being able to have choices, and that's what it is all about. I don't care about material things, but I do like the ability to have the freedom to choose what I do every day...and both penny pinching and saving are crucial to that. Cheers!
  16. I suspect their rate will slowly nudge towards 7%. Cheers! http://www.cnbc.com/id/47597700
  17. I know I started this thread that technology will save the world, but technology is also going to allow us to blow each other up faster and spy on each other in much more sophisticated ways...maybe keep everyone in check! :D Take a look at this: http://finance.yahoo.com/news/cyberweapon-discovered-iranian-computers-hit-144156143.html;_ylt=Ageq8LkNjGQG1zapxOP7RCmiuYdG;_ylu=X3oDMTQ0ajU1djFvBG1pdANGaW5hbmNlIEZQIFRvcCBTdG9yeSBSaWdodARwa2cDNGE4OGVlNDYtNjNiZC0zNmE1LTgwZGItNzNjNWQxN2Y3ZGE0BHBvcwM4BHNlYwN0b3Bfc3RvcnkEdmVyA2JmYmU3M2QwLWE5YjUtMTFlMS1hZTNmLTM1MzZhMTJiMzgzOA--;_ylg=X3oDMTFpNzk0NjhtBGludGwDdXMEbGFuZwNlbi11cwRwc3RhaWQDBHBzdGNhdANob21lBHB0A3NlY3Rpb25z;_ylv=3
  18. I agree with that, other than the 2 additional quarters. I think it will take a little longer because of all of the legal overhang. Why wouldn't WFC maintain a premium vs. BAC, given that USB maintains a premium vs. WFC? Do you see a pathway for BAC to depart from historically inferior unlevered profit margins, and to compensate for the leverage handcuffs of Basel III? The only time I've seen premiums retained on a business over long periods of time, is where their is a lack of competition or a duopoly. In cases where a premium is retained in competitive industries, it is often a superb manager that retains that premium because of his/her abilities. In a highly competitive industry like the financial industry, I doubt that any business can retain a significant premium over a decade or longer unless that CEO remains in place for a long period of time. So while I expect WFC to maintain some premium over it's peers because of its cross selling, loyal customer base, and higher credit quality loans, I think that will narrow slightly over time. I don't think JPM will have a significant premium over BAC in 5 years. Especially if Dimon moves on as is expected. I've never owned JPM and own only WFC and BAC...I expect to hold both for many, many years. Cheers!
  19. This is a very very important observation. I believe that the bank which embodies the principles of JPM or the image of Dimon that everyone subscribed to is actually BAC and Moynihan. What Moynihan is doing is going to be looked at every quarter with more and more appreciation. I dont believe JPM and WFC will retain their premium over BAC for more than 2 additional quarters. I agree with that, other than the 2 additional quarters. I think it will take a little longer because of all of the legal overhang. But yes, I think Moynihan is actually showing all the traits that any rational person would want in a CEO...humble, learns from his mistakes, making things more efficient, getting rid of non-essential businesses, restoring morale and reputation and creating a much stronger institution. The problem is that he's not as charismatic as Dimon, and has all of the crap to deal with from his predecessor. But this guy is the real deal and what he's doing is going to be recognized by his employees and the banking industry 10 years from now. He saved this bank and the hundreds of thousands of jobs still there! Cheers!
  20. I have started to spend more, paying up in many areas for quality. Partly out of a change in philosophy in marginal utility of spending vs. savings (while I am still young, I have decided enjoying some of my money while younger is a hedge against death or divorce)... LOL! That was funny, but sadly true. Cheers!
  21. What products do board members pay up for in order to have A better quality item and something that will last several years? Basically to save money in the long run. I rarely pay up for anything...in other words, I like to look awful and put myself through a lot of pain! :D Vehicles - I pay a reasonable price to get a High Quality Vehicle - There is nothing I hate worse than going to the repair garage and being forced to pay up when you dont expect it. I've owned very nice cars and I've owned average cars, and I've come to the stage of my life where I find that a car is simply a utility for transportation, and I couldn't care what I drive anymore. I had two cars, and a couple of years ago I sold one of them, and found that taking public transportation Monday to Friday was the best thing I could have ever done. I walk a hell of alot more, there is no stress Monday to Friday when going and coming from the office, and I save a ton of money on gas and parking, while using time that normally would have been wasted in traffic. Vacations - Prefer adventure travel to cruises, or beach vacations. Depends what I'm doing. I'll easily pay up for a nice hotel, because I like a good nights sleep somewhere clean, with a fitness centre and pool. If I'm doing adventure travel, I've found as someone else said that cheap is actually a good way to go...although I did this a hell of a lot more when I was younger! Home renovations. Our first couple of renos, I did all of the work myself, and selected materials largely on price. I wouldn't do that again in any place I planned to stay in for a long time. I would say this is accurate, but it doesn't mean the highest bidder does the best job. I think references are valuable, and just following up on the contractor regularly. Healthy food. This is mostly my wife's doing, but we now buy almost everything organic. I'll almost never pay up for organic. All the burger joints I've been to in my life probably did far more damage than organic broccoli could ever repair, so I go cheap on groceries. But my fridge and pantry are packed and I can pretty much make you anything you want, when you want it in my house. Tools- there is something to be said for quality hand and power tools. This is accurate as long as you use them somewhat regularly. Otherwise it is capital tied up in something that never gets used, and I've made it almost a religion since I started the funds to forgo things where I tie up capital with little utility. Having a Macbook and a good phone are also invaluable. I think a good laptop and phone are important if you use them alot. Doesn't have to be a Mac. I've never owned a Mac, but my laptops have all been great...actually the best single purchase I've ever made, since I use them more than my bed or tv. I buy them cheap on Boxing week sales usually. Never the newest model, but one step below that they are trying to get rid of. A high quality Mattress! I would say an incredibly important purchase for most people. Although for myself, I fall asleep 3-4 days a week on my sofa while watching Bloomberg at like 1am, so I sleep on my bed maybe half the time! Hair cut. For 6 years I ended up driving 120 miles round trip to get a haircut from a person who knows how to cut my hair just the way I like. Only if you have hair! ;D I shave my own head after losing most of it! Keeps me humble and I feel like a buddhist monk...studying the scrolls of Buffett. BBQ I bought the best charcoal bbq there is.A Big Green Egg.Use it at least 3 times a week.Ask Sanjeev he's eaten off it. Yes, definitely worth it if you BBQ as much as Stone19. Truly the best pulled pork I've ever had was at his house! And a high quality desk chair! Yes, this is definitely a good idea if you are sitting for most of the day. Cheers!
  22. Leveraged loan defaults may surge in Europe over the next few years: http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2012-05-28/leveraged-loan-defaults-may-surge-to-25-in-europe-moody-s-says.html Spain prays and delays on zombie debt: http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2012-05-28/spain-delays-and-prays-that-zombies-repay-debt-mortgages.html Cheers!
  23. I bet NormR subscribes to the Rothery Report! ;D Cheers!
  24. I'm sure other magazines have eaten into their market as well...such as Value Investor's Insight and Manual of Ideas. Plus there are so many God-damn newsletters around now. It seems as though everyone is publishing a newsletter these days...nice recurring income stream I guess! Cheers!
  25. Article on Boaz Weinstein, from Saba Capital, who benefitted from the trading mess at JPM. Cheers! http://www.nytimes.com/2012/05/27/business/how-boaz-weinstein-and-hedge-funds-outsmarted-jpmorgan.html?partner=yahoofinance
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