Parsad

Have no idea what it is, but apparently they are announcing something Monday according to this article. Cheers! http://www.forbes.com/sites/ericsavitz/2012/06/14/microsoft-major-announcement-in-l-a-monday/?partner=yahootix

It happened yesterday. I thought they were just updating the site, and whoever their service provider is, had just put a temporary page up. The domain according to Whois is still owned by Berkshire: http://who.godaddy.com/whois.aspx?domain=berkshirehathaway.com&prog_id=GoDaddy I suspect it was a hack, not someone forgetting to renew the domain name. Probably some Republican techie who hates the Buffett Tax! ;D Cheers!

Microsoft is said to be ready to pay $1B for Yammer. Cheers! http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2012-06-14/microsoft-said-to-be-in-talks-to-acquire-yammer-social-network.html

I agree Txlaw. Where I disagree with Kovacevich, is that he's not considering all of the counterparty liability that would have taken down the system, if any of the big banks that needed the capital failed to do so because they were concerned with optics or perception. Wells may not have needed the money, but many, many banks in the system needed it...and if one of the large institutions went down, it could have caused a mass exodus from many other banks and pushed them over the edge too. Once you get a run, it sure is hard to stop one unless you restore confidence in the system. Cheers!

Former Wells Fargo CEO, Dick Kovacevich has some choice words for TARP. Not sure I agree. Cheers! http://www.bizjournals.com/twincities/blog/banking/2012/06/kovacevich-wells-fargo-bank-bailout.html?ana=yfcpc

Can somebody please remind me not to get into raucous debates with ValueInv? He's a partner in our fund and I keep forgetting his damn nickname on here. ;D And no I still won't take your bet! Cheers!

Video on Berkshire subsidiary executives. Cheers! http://money.cnn.com/video/news/2012/06/12/f-f500-berkshire-ceo.fortune/?source=cnn_bin

The Dell I bought 7 years ago was top of the line and cost me $1600 then, and it lasted me 5.5 years while using it about 10-14 hours a day. But the Toshiba I bought a year and a half ago cost me $450 at a Boxing Day sale, and it works like a charm 10-14 hours a day. Not a single problem. I can't justify...for my needs anyway, which may be completely different than someone else's...$2200 for a laptop anymore. While there is a difference in processor speed, memory, display, etc, there is much more parity between laptops than 5 years ago. Technology has gotten better and better, and what you pay a few hundred dollars for today, would have cost $2500-3000 5-7 years ago. I won't ever pay more than $600-700 for a laptop! Cheers!

Dell bought Perot Systems, HP bought EDS, Xerox bought ACS, then there CSC. All have chunks of the government business process outsourcing market. Dell has hardly cornered the market on govt contracts for services. Sorry, I should have clarified what I meant...that they are moving up quickly in terms of government contracts. - Dell was the 57th largest government contractor in 2008, then 53rd in 2009 and moved up to 41st in 2010. - During the same periods, IBM was ranked 42nd in 2008, 37th in 2009 and 44th in 2010. - HP was ranked 25th in 2008, out of top 100 in 2009, and 39th in 2010. - Xerox was not ranked in the top 100 in any of those 3 years. Cheers!

BAC is paying down $40B in long-term debt in the 2nd quarter, which will save them about $230M in interest costs every quarter. I especially like the last line on risk control by CFO, Bruce Thompson: "One of the most significant things you can do is just make sure you don't have any tree that's too tall - even if you think you've done hedging and everything else is right," he said. http://finance.yahoo.com/news/bofa-expects-save-230-million-235418607.html;_ylt=AjIlbH9uoxKbPR2Nq413fNqiuYdG;_ylu=X3oDMTNyYjZuaDY2BG1pdANGUCBUb3AgU3RvcnkgTGVmdARwa2cDMjRiZTllNzEtYzljMC0zZGI5LWE3YjYtMWRlNGEyODNkZDE5BHBvcwMyBHNlYwN0b3Bfc3RvcnkEdmVyAzJjMjE2YWMwLWI0ZWEtMTFlMS1iY2IxLTRlYzcyNmJkOWVjZQ--;_ylg=X3oDMTFpNzk0NjhtBGludGwDdXMEbGFuZwNlbi11cwRwc3RhaWQDBHBzdGNhdANob21lBHB0A3NlY3Rpb25z;_ylv=3 Cheers!

I still don't think DELL is really cheap. It's fair to slightly undervalued in my mind based on its ability to grow its cash flows, and the lack of competitive advantages. Cheers! « Last Edit: May 22, 2012, 03:19:03 PM by Parsad » ??? Indeed. Can't even believe Parsad actually said this. Where is the sudden change of heart coming from? A 20% drop from fairly valued (or slightly undervalued) shouldn't cut it. When posting the message on May 22 he did in fact already know the after hours stock price... Especially in the light of this topic -> http://www.cornerofberkshireandfairfax.ca/forum/general-discussion/big-four-to-audit-spain's-banks/ where he stated again to have plenty of cash. Surely you must find better things than something that is 20-30% undervalued without competitive advantages if you hold plenty of cash waiting for the big opportunities. I can understand you sold the BAC puts right before the day the stock went up 8-10%, even if it was languishing at that level for a few weeks already. That's just lucky timing after a good weekend discussion with moore. ;D But I really can't see the logic here. Would you mind to explain your vision Parsad? TIA. :) I went home that day and spent the entire night tearing apart their last three 10-K's and all of their filings during the period. I was somewhat wrong on what Dell's future cash flows will look like! The business had changed considerably in the last 3 years. I wanted to post on here to retract my statements later on, but then I also didn't want anyone to know we were buying stock. We started nibbling and then added considerably below $12. It's not a huge position, but it is a fair size one. We hoped the stock would get even cheaper. While they will continue to struggle on the consumer side, their greater focus on becoming a complete end to end user service provider and increased server/enterprise business, is changing the company entirely. More residual income from their services and contracts, and less one-time sale income as a retailer. Not entirely different than the model many other technology companies are now extending, like Apple, Microsoft, etc. Many of the contracts Dell has in place are quite lucrative and long-term in nature, and they have somewhat cornered the market on government contracts...there's your competitive advantage. Their streams of income are diverse and cash flows are increasing. While they don't like the comparison, they are right in the footsteps of IBM, but trading for a significantly cheaper price. Like I said before, I don't work in a vacuum. If I'm wrong, and the analysis is incorrect, I have to adjust it accordingly. I was wrong on what the business is going to look like five-ten years out. Cheers!

Hi Prunes, I think it is highly dependent on which regions we are talking about. For example, liquified natural gas is cheap and abundant in North America, whereas it is far more expensive than coal in many other parts of the world, such as Eastern Europe & Asia. So, I don't think coal use would decrease much in those regions, but you could see some users walk away from long-term contracts in North America if you get a prolonged slump in natural gas prices. In general, the world will continue to have a voracious appetite for energy, and it won't matter exactly what the source is...but the percentage from any particular source will be heavily dependent on supply/demand and there will be some regionality influencing that curve. Cheers!

Al, I'll bet you $5K that coal will still be terrific 100 years from now for barbecuing! It won't matter...ribs will still taste good, even if there are other ways of cooking them. That competitive advantage will never dissipate even if GE comes up with a better way to nuke food. ;D Are you man enough to take my bet? I'll let you and Ericopoly go halfsies on that offer, because I know neither one of you are man enough to take me on alone. Heck, add Stone19 to the list too, because I've had pulled pork on his Green Egg and he uses two types of wood along with his special Green Egg coal. He won't use normal coal by itself! ;D And he uses those sissy Carolina BBQ sauces too...no tomato base! Now Matt and Joe are probably gonna jump on me, because they're from North Carolina and they're used to those sauces...any way, I digress...back to coal being the energy source of the future and natural gas will never replace it...just never will happen and I've got $5K riding on it...because as we all know, objects moving in a straight line will never, ever deviate, will they? Cheers!

Pretty good article on coal and natural gas. Cheers! http://finance.yahoo.com/news/us-coal-falling-fast-utilities-173126367.html;_ylt=ApfrbpNwLdeD17Ez3mWyB7SiuYdG;_ylu=X3oDMTQ0NGVlZXRqBG1pdANGaW5hbmNlIEZQIFRvcCBTdG9yeSBSaWdodARwa2cDZWFhMzA4M2UtNGYzOC0zNzk4LWFjMTctM2MxZDcxZjdjMzk0BHBvcwMzBHNlYwN0b3Bfc3RvcnkEdmVyAzdiZjAzOWMwLWI0Y2EtMTFlMS1iZjlhLWZjNDRlOTI3M2M4Mg--;_ylg=X3oDMTFpNzk0NjhtBGludGwDdXMEbGFuZwNlbi11cwRwc3RhaWQDBHBzdGNhdANob21lBHB0A3NlY3Rpb25z;_ylv=3

Ok, found it. Yes, another article attributing a buy by Berkshire, when in actuality it is a subsidiary that is buying. Cheers! http://www.canadianminingjournal.com/news/investment-berkshire-hathaway-backs-woulfes-korean-tungsten-venture/1000953394/

Does anyone remember this, or is this another article attributing an investment by Berkshire that never actually happened? Cheers! http://www.resourceinvestor.com/2012/06/12/why-warren-buffett-is-loading-up-on-tungsten?t=mining-investments

It's ok, I mis-read your post and thought you meant annual too. Cheers!

This is all talk. For the sake of the bet, lets assume I am silly, retarted, whatever label you want to attached to me. That only makes you smart to be on the other side of the bet. If I don't know what I am doing, I deserve to lose my money and I am fine with it. I have done my analysis and my calculations and I am comfortable with the odds. Question is, are you? So gentlemen, let me ask for the third time, are you willing to take the bet? I am willing to put $5000 down. Either one of you can take the bet for $5K or both of you for $2.5K Sorry, I don't make stupid bets. But here is an option for you since you are very comfortable with your analysis: Why don't you buy January 2014 in the money calls with the $5K? The $575's trade around $106, and if you get anywhere near a $750B market cap, you would have 3 times your money. After you buy the calls, please make sure you scan and post your trade confirmation on here, with the name, account number, etc. redacted. Cheers!

No, you did not imagine it! I'm glad we bought quite a bit when the price got hammered over the last couple of weeks! ;D Cheers! http://finance.yahoo.com/news/dell-shares-rally-company-announces-200300191.html

Forbes article on the recently announced $9.6B Netjets fleet purchase. Cheers! http://www.forbes.com/sites/chrisbarth/2012/06/12/warren-buffett-clairvoyant-or-crazy/?partner=yahootix

You are the guys who started making short term, specific predictions - not me. I am simply challenging you on it. Are you confident in your analysis? When did anyone say anything about Apple's short-term results or success? I think everyone said that the long-term competitive advantages at Apple would diminish over time without Jobs, and that is due to the company's lack of the visionary and driving force behind the business, and in particular his marketing skills. Before you do something retarded, go back and read the thread from last October. Not once did I say anything about Apple falling apart in the short-term, but that over time competitors would slowly start to catch up...and I think that would start to happen within a few years rather than a decade. http://www.cornerofberkshireandfairfax.ca/forum/general-discussion/why-apple-won't-be-the-same-after-steve-jobs/ The truth is that I admired the hell out of Jobs and I give him sole credit for what he did with the company. I'm not lambasting Apple, but praising Job's abilities...that's always been the case! Cheers!

So, are you taking the bet? So, you would actually bet on the short-term, speculative nature of predicting whether Apple might be a $750B capitalization company within a year or two? What if someone asked you whether you would make a $5K bet on Apple being a $750B company on June 13, 2013? Would you be silly enough to take that bet?

And no, I don't think Google is working on giving the Facebook the kind of integration and placement that Apple has. Doing so will effectively kill their own social network while it is still a sapling. If they don't, they will make Android phones less attractive to the hundreds of millions of regular Facebook users. What are they going to chose? Their social platform or their mobile platform? I wasn't talking about Facebook...but Apple's challenge to destroy Google Maps. No, they're not going to have the kind of integrations that Apple has with its phone, tablet and laptops. Thats because few people are buying Android tablets and even those that are - they're buying Amazon's. There are fewer still with Chromebooks. So, what value does the integration bring? Cool demos? It's not about tablets. Tablets are just another media outlet for the end user, and over time it will morph into something else, just like desktops, laptops, etc. The iPod for all intents and purposes is irrelevant now, even though people still buy it, there is support for it and it generates revenues through iTunes...but it is irrelevant and will eventually go the way of the VCR or DVD player. The end goal is to provide the user the most useable device and the greatest number of integrated devices. So as long as Apple's competitors are outselling it in smartphones, laptops and eventually televisions, they will eat into the marketshare over time. Don't forget that Jobs created the graphic interface (or at least brought it to market), but who ended up with the monopoly...Gates with Windows. Things change so quickly in technology that moats can dissolve in much less than a decade. Granted, it will take Apple's competitors considerable time to eat into their space significantly, but it will happen over time. It always does! Cheers!

I remember that you said that Apple would top out at $500-$600B market cap in January. They're now at $542B market cap. I bet you $5000 that they will surpass $750B in the next two years. Wanna take me on? So exactly how was Uccmal wrong...at least to this point? Don't get too carried away. I went through the whole presentation after you linked it, and I wasn't particularly impressed with what they were doing. There was nothing really significant, other than getting the Macbooks up to speed with the iPad3 and iPhone. Integration with Facebook and pushing their navigation over Google Maps? You don't think Google is already working on this...that they've got far more smartphones already using Android and they won't fight back? The one thing that always happens with regularity, is that parity comes easier than the retention of supposed moats. With proper curing concrete becomes stronger and impermeable to moisture...but if you get any cracks...even the smallest amount of moisture can start to tear it apart over time. Those cracks appear more frequently within technology companies. Cheers!

Netjets is adding to the fleet! Cheers! http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2012-06-11/buffett-adds-cessna-bombardier-planes-in-9-6-billion-deal-1-.html