Parsad

Also, if the government does end up convicting or settling with Cohen, can Fairfax refile their civil lawsuit and go after him and his assets? Cheers!

"Five Key Things About SAC Insider Case"...from Bloomberg...also discusses Fairfax's lawsuit. Cheers! http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2013-05-24/five-key-things-about-the-sac-insider-case.html?cmpid=yhoo

Some more comments by Bass about BOJ. Cheers! http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2013-05-23/boj-bond-buying-to-be-overwhelmed-by-investor-sales-bass-says.html

Three more senior SAC executives subpoenaed! Hey, we don't have a culture of corruption...what are you talkin' about! Cheers! http://www.cnbc.com/id/100736888

After reading the article, and reading the comments by readers, I can't say that the article gives me any insights into how to value the markets? I think there is direct evidence that too much analysis, and not enough rationality, is what is making markets undecipherable between the bulls and the bears. Ignore the analysis and buy when you find things are cheap. Right now, I cannot find much cheap stuff! Cheers!

Extreme measures can have extreme consequences. If governments start to compress the spring, at some point the spring will pop back up with greater force. Government officials have to be very careful in what they are doing...no one knows what the repercussions could be. Cheers!

Yup...exactly right. Same with Fairfax, Markel, etc. They don't have to kill it...just do well...and the leverage takes care of the rest. Cheers!

Except the defaults are really low which indicates a low level of distress out there, not a high level. You're right Eric. The concern is when rates start to rise. Look at how Japan reacted tonight...down over 7% and yields shot up on their bonds. Just the beginning! Markets will eventually ease and incorporate the Fed's change in stance, but because there is so much "fast money" (should be "dumb money") out there, we will see some sort of correction. As rates fluctuate, risk premiums of assets will have to fluctuate. The concern becomes what is the eventual fallout from rising rates on indebted nations or financial institutions? Remember, European banks have not been restructured like U.S. banks. They've just been provided cheap access to capital. But what if the European government cannot provide that cheap access? Things will work out in the long-run, but the pain from overindulgence isn't finished for the world just yet. Cheers!

One day does not make a trend, but you guys should keep an eye on this: http://www.cnbc.com/id/100760159 http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2013-05-23/japan-s-bonds-fall-on-fed-comments-as-10-year-yield-rises-to-1-.html We talked about both these issues at our AGM this year. As Prem mentioned in the annual letter and at the AGM, the outcome of so much intervention is completely uncertain when that intervention is removed. Cheers!

Have you considered buying sovereign CDS (on Japan, Italy, etc.)? The market is clearly trading orders of magnitude away from your prediction. A good indicator on this will be Francis. He is one of the few mutual funds that has clearance to buy CDS. If you see him doing something like that in the next few months, it will be a pretty good guide. Cheers! Sanj, do you know if this is true for his American funds, or just the Canadian ones? Hi Mdhousa, Not sure, but I would suspect that he can, as he can also go well over 10% positions, etc. Best to probably check the fund offering documents on their website. Cheers!

The rule should really be: "Buy and CAN hold for the LONG-TERM!" Meaning, you buy businesses that you can hold for long periods of time at an excellent discount to intrinsic value. That way you can hold the investment until the markets arbitrage the difference. And/or continue to hold if intrinsic value continues to grow at an adequate rate. Cheers!

Oh well, I'm not going to cash. I just can't do it. Market is just too fun and I don't have a day job anyhow. Eric, this just won't do! We're going to have to find you a real job with your growing family. Come work for me...plastics, my boy...plastics! That's the future. ;D Cheers!

Have you considered buying sovereign CDS (on Japan, Italy, etc.)? The market is clearly trading orders of magnitude away from your prediction. No...we use cash as a hedge. Also, you have to have more money than us to buy CDS as an institutional investor. A good indicator on this will be Francis. He is one of the few mutual funds that has clearance to buy CDS. If you see him doing something like that in the next few months, it will be a pretty good guide. Cheers!

The recovery in many respects while robust, is still tepid in many other ways...so I don't think he wants to do anything to affect the recovery until it has both legs under itself and is self-perpetuating. Cheers!

New Deepcapture on SAC and Fairfax. Unbelievable how the judge threw out Fairfax's case against SAC, and just a couple of years later the government has a full all-out offensive on them as corrupt, racketeering criminals. Also, how many that were calling Byrne "tin-foil hat Byrne" are calling him that today? Where is Antar, Weiss, Conen, Eavis, Gwynn, Sender, Contogouris, Taylor, Greenberg...cronies one and all. Cheers! http://www.deepcapture.com/there-is-more-to-the-sac-capital-story/

In terms of other strategies, have you sold your stocks or portions of them? Even if they remain cheap? Have you sold covered calls in case you want to hold them longer term, but want some protection? Have you bought puts on your stocks? Yes, yes, and yes. I walk the talk. Cheers!

Sanjeev, what do you believe the probability is of a major sovereign default? 30-70...default/no default...60-40...crisis/no crisis. I think the chance of a default is reasonably high, but probably prevented through intervention. But I think the chance of a significant crisis that worries markets, because of that possibility, to be almost a given. We'll see...I may be off on the timing, just like I was with BAC hitting tangible book...but I was right about 5 months later than predicted. Cheers!

That's one of the best quotes on investing around. Cheers!

Greek CDS were triggered. http://www.reuters.com/article/2012/03/09/us-greece-cds-isda-trigger-idUSBRE82817B20120309 Now whether Parsad and JEast would consider this a major default in an advanced economy, I don't know. I consider it a default, but not a major economy. I'm talking UK, France, Germany, Italy, Japan, Spain, Russia, China, Brazil, United States, etc. One of the biggies...and a couple in particular out of such a list are really on the verge. Cheers!

At this rate, Sanjeev is going to be out a lot of money. He already is going to owe me $1 at the end of the year when BAC doesn't pay out $7 bil or more on the common. A pint too? Better pick some good stocks! I'm going broke! No wonder it feels like 1935 to me. ;D Cheers!

How are you going to decide what constitutes a default? Some people think Greece hasn't defaulted in the last two years, others think there has been one default, others think two. What countries are you talking about? The odds are against you if you include all 196. True, what constitutes a default. In my opinion, Greece has defaulted...as without any European intervention, they cannot survive. But I'm saying a "major" sovereign default in an advanced economy...major European, Asian, North/South American country...where without full intervention, they cannot survive. In other words, a signifcant global crisis. Cheers!

In theory, that is what they will do. We'll see if it works in practice. Cheers!

He's like Santa Claus. ;D He knows when you've been good, he knows when you've been bad...he'll post when he thinks he needs to. They can let the balance sheet unwind through security maturity, but the moment that the HFT, hedge fund guys get wind that they have stopped buying or are unwinding, the nutjobs may start to panic. Regardless, we have no idea what the outcome will be, because we've never been here before. It will be interesting to see how markets and rates behave. Cheers!

Then why make one? Because I like to get the board into a tizzy! ;D Cheers!

I suspect Fed selling is just around the corner. It will be interesting to see how markets react when quantitative easing turns into quantitative flooding. I hate predictions, because they make you look stupid when you are wrong, but I bet we will see a major sovereign default in the next 12-24 months after rates begin to rise. Let's see how stupid I look now in 12-24 months! ;D Cheers!