Parsad

Works on IE11. Was not working for me on Opera. Ha, that's interesting! I just also found that out. Works on IE 11, but not Chrome. GAAATTTTEESS! Thanks!

Anyone having problems accessing the Livestream?

I am not arguing that the traditional hedge fund structure isn't a disaster. It's definitely very, very bad for investors. What I am saying, is that the bet wasn't even remotely fair. Buffett is an absolute genius who picked the right index to put a 100% weighting into at the right time. This was not luck, he did it because he is smarter than nearly everyone else out there and knew it'd be impossible to beat. Looking at the performance of the opposition, their returns weren't even mediocre, they were diabolical before the ridiculously high fee structure was considered. I take umbrage with his comment the fact that indexing is always great and that active is always bad (except presumably for himself and the 10 other people he talked about as being able to outperform). I'll tell you what's not fair. That no hedge fund manager wanted to stand behind the fees they charge. We know why too? They have no intention ever to beat anything. Seides obviously didn't know wth he was getting into. The 10 guys who Buffett was speaking about have returned something in excess of the index over the long term. Why? Because that's what they intended to do so. Using Buffett 's threshold for earning his keep as the proxy, the fee was after performing. That's fair. This was not about picking this versus that. Go to longbets.org and listen to Buffett's sermon last year or in the annual letter.It was about the ripoff called fees for nothing. Long haul's used car analogy captures the issue perfectly. At least you get a car. The hedge fund managers did quite ok over the period of the bet. We stand behind our fees...we don't have any, so there isn't much to stand behind! ;D I think if all managers used the model we use (Buffett's original partnership model), long-term you would only be left with those managers that can actually beat the S&P500. Not many...only handfuls! And those that just like reaping large fees would be actually working used car lots where they belong. Cheers!

Is this another way of saying Fairfax suffers from a conglomerate discount or was this in a different context? They are just saying that intrinsic value is significantly higher than book value. Some of their acquisitions under IFRS are being carried at cost, while the value is far higher...be it the intrinsic value or market value. Cheers!

I'm absolutely a believer that with the leverage they have, the insurance businesses they now have, and the investment team they have, they will get 15% annualized returns over the LONG-term. Remember, with that leverage and insurance operations that now consistently write at below a 100% combined ratio, they don't need stellar investment results like the past...they just need good returns. Many people, on here and elsewhere, always assumed that Fairfax's insurance businesses would never operate at below 100% CR long-term...well guess what! They have consistently added new managers, and some of the older ones are still young enough and very healthy enough to last another 20 years. They also know that they can outsource some of the investment work load now, instead of having to manage it all in-house as the core team ages. They have a deep team, and it will only get deeper as they get bigger and their reputation even more alluring to smart young managers and executives. I would recommend that they start to outsource to other good managers as the cash flows get bigger and bigger...give Francis more money...give Vito Maida money...I'm happy to manage more over time! ;D Cheers!

That's about right. Eric hasn't gone anywhere. He's enjoying retirement over the last few years...including learning to surf! He still reads the board and posts from time to time. Cheers!

Hi Everyone, The Fairfax AGM this year was fantastic as usual! I know many have been critical of the company over the last couple of years, but I think they are making a huge mistake in underestimating what is going on. The easiest way to see that there is a basic miscalculation of Fairfax is simply by taking a look at this year's lanyards and shareholder badge. If you opened up the badge, you could see the logos of many of the companies Fairfax owns, and this didn't include most of the insurance businesses. Literally, the badge looked like Berkshire nearly 20 years ago when I first began to look at the company. And the insurance businesses are getting better and better as a whole at Fairfax! Roy Thomson Hall is also getting too small for the AGM. I suspect we may have to move it to the Metro Trade and Convention Centre soon, as the number of booths and venues literally engulfed all of Roy Thomson Hall, including the outside courtyard area. Amazing to see all of the different businesses, organizations and people involved at Fairfax. Unfortunately, I was manning the Templeton Foundation book table for most of the morning, so I did not get to see the Fairfax presentation. I'm sure others can share comments on here. The presentation slides are available here: http://www.fairfax.ca/news/events-and-webcasts/default.aspx Once again, amazing what is happening at Fairfax...we are watching the wheel being replicated again...the brushstrokes and final painting will look different than Berkshire, but the similarities are definitively there! Cheers!

Hi Everyone, This year's dinner raised $30,798 for Crohn's & Colitis Canada. Thanks to all that supported and attended the dinner, as well as those that could not make it but contributed nonetheless! Big thanks to Fairfax Financial, in particular Vinodh Loganadhan, Pat Hios, Paul Rivett and Prem Watsa! Also thanks to Jeff Stacey for moderating the Fairfax panel. Thanks to: - Definitive Sound - Manulife Office - Ruby Yawney-Lougheed - AB Value Management - The Keg Restaurants - Cara Food Group - McEwen Group - Wayne Gretzky & his foundation - Milos Raonic - Dustin Johnson - Lauren Templeton & The Templeton Foundation - Dr. Ryan D'Arcy - Robin Speziale Finally, thanks to all of the volunteers, including those who helped organize the various events, pre-dinner meeting and our dinner! We had about 135 people attend. Fairfax brought their usual of 10-15 executives, managers and guests. Gary Shilling was there, and surprise guest Mason Hawkins. That panel was moderated by Jeff Stacey. Francis rekindled some excitement for all of the long-time attendees who remember the days at Joe Badali's, by bringing together a panel after the Fairfax panel of Brian Bradstreet, Sam Mitchell and Peter Furlan. All in all, it was another terrific year! Sanjeev

Oh, I agree it's not a fad. It makes long-term sense. But you have a congregation of capital of enormous size going into them. When a correction happens it will be bigger and faster. The recovery will also be quicker. Cheers!

Could be Klarman remains incorrect. I just think there are certain systemic events that take much longer than expected to reach a tipping point. People could be making money hand over fist during the cycle, but that doesn't mean that the risk doesn't exist. If you have massive coordinated global quantitative easing combined with a broad concentration forming in index funds, I would imagine that could create such a circumstance where any change in policy or some sort of crisis, could result in a rapid correction as algorithmic trading systems kick in. Klarman may get the end result correct, while looking foolish for a very long time. Cheers!

If any of us were smart, we would have written the show "Billions" based on what happened, instead of Andrew Ross Sorkin beating us all to the punch. As good as that show is, I don't think they've still touched on many things we've seen that would easily fit into a season's worth of episodes. Cheers!

The funny thing is how Chanos and Loeb responded to the decision...that they were gratified by the court's well-reasoned decision. That decision only occurred because the New Jersey court had no jurisdiction over them...not that they were innocent of such claims. Cheers!

Hi John, In so far as I am biased and prepared for a downturn, I suppose. I was prepared by the summer of 2007 the last time. I got caught off guard over a year later when I thought the worst had past and did some stupid investments on the way down. Washington Mutual comes to mind as one. With inflows like what we are seeing into an overvalued stock market, things IMO are getting dangerous. Part of the problem is outside of oil cos. I am not seeing any value. And I am tentative with oil because it will get pulled down in a market crash, recession scenario. People have forgotten, as usual, how fast and how badly things can turn. As usual I am probably early but in this case it doesn't really matter. I am not losing any opportunity cost. Snapping up a bunch of blue chips in a downturn when their yields go above five or six percent is worth the wait. I'm firmly in the camp that any sort of congregation of investors in any one strategy will result in some sort of large correction. That correction in ETF's will simply take a much longer time to come to fruition, because you are talking about such a large overvaluation in the broad market...not simply in one sector. Seth Klarman talked about this two years ago in his annual letter. Can anyone tell me that the economic cycles for the stock market have not compressed with algorithmic trading, ETF computer trading and huge interventions in monetary policy? We've seen this accelerate in the last 15-20 years. As someone else said on here, Buffett and Bogle are correct long-term about index investing...but that is completely based on investors ignoring all emotion and simply holding or averaging into an index fund over the long-term. But that is not how portfolio managers or the average investor behaves, and certainly not how computers will behave, if their programming directs them to push a sell order with no triggers to stop a cascading market. I remember an encounter with a certain investment manager and his professor in Omaha, and we had a discussion on the markets. I said at that time I was concerned about systemic risk and agreed with an article that Larry Sarbit wrote about how even money markets would break the dollar level in such an event. It was why Sarbit was getting out of many financial investments, including Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac. The professor turned to his protege and asked him the question I posed. The protege thought about it for a moment and said that the likelihood of such an event occurring would be small because the treasury market was so large that a liquidity event was unlikely to occur to the money market industry on any given day. The professor agreed and there you have it! Two great intellects that clearly indicated how such an event could not occur. Well a few years later in 2008, money market funds for the first time in their entire history of some 70 years, finally fell through the one dollar mark. There is a reason why this Buffett quote is always on the inside cover of our annual report: “…Over time, markets will do extraordinary, even bizarre, things. A single, big mistake could wipe out a long string of successes. We therefore need someone genetically programmed to recognize and avoid serious risks, including those never before encountered. Certain perils that lurk in investment strategies cannot be spotted by use of the models commonly employed today by financial institutions. Temperament is also important. Independent thinking, emotional stability, and a keen understanding of both human and institutional behavior is vital to long-term investment success. I’ve seen a lot of very smart people who have lacked these virtues…” Cheers!

lol! Thanks for the advice about how to handle and approach this brick, longinvestor! The Lady of the House will most likely shake her head again - Last time was when I bought both the English and Swedish version of the Investor AB 100 years Anniversary book. She did not understand why I really needed both versions. When I'm reading the financials of Svenska Handelsbanken AB - on/off - [244 pages], she asks me : "What's so interesting about that light blue old fashion community telephone book? - is it the Swedish verson this time, or the English?" ... John, it's a pretty fascinating read. My first copy, I read the entire thing that week! I just couldn't put it down because of all of the history, details, personal stories about Buffett, Berkshire, Omaha, investing, etc. Then you buy another copy say 4-5 years down the road, and read all of the new stories. Then buy another one 4-5 years down the road again, and read all the new stuff again. Plus, you'll go back and read some of the other stories over and over as well. As Longinvestor said, it's a great reference guide as the index in the back is very comprehensive if you are looking for a specific subject. Cheers!

I still consider Andy's book the ultimate bible for Berkshire disciples. Here is the link to the 2017 edition! I can't even remember how long Andy's been putting "Of Permanent Value" together, but it's well over 20 years now. Thanks for all your work Andy! Cheers! https://www.amazon.com/Permanent-Value-Warren-Buffett-Worldwide/dp/1681840723/ref=cm_sw_em_r_dp_w_dc_l657ybYTE9C4B_tt

Hi Marlin, I emailed Andy to have him send me the book cover so I can post it on here, but I have not heard back. Can you let me him know that if he wants to have it on here, I'm more than happy to post it. Cheers!

Hi Folks, Today is the last chance to buy dinner tickets! They will not be available tomorrow. Today is also the last day to buy presentation-only tickets at $100, as they will increase to $150 from tomorrow. Presentation tickets will be available right up until the door opens on the 19th, but dinner tickets will not be available after tomorrow. The dinner this year is at: Fairmont Royal York Imperial Room - Lobby Level April 19th, 2017 6pm - 10pm Tickets: Presentation only - $100 - increase to $150 after April 5th Presentation & Buffet Dinner - $200 - not available after April 5th We will also have a silent auction, etc as usual. Please buy your tickets at: http://www.cornerofberkshireandfairfax.ca/ - Left-hand side, scroll down half a page. or http://www.pdh-inc.com/investor-relations.html - Scroll down half a page. Cheers!

Hi Folks, Today is the last chance to buy dinner tickets! They will not be available tomorrow. Today is also the last day to buy presentation-only tickets at $100, as they will increase to $150 from tomorrow. Presentation tickets will be available right up until the door opens on the 19th, but dinner tickets will not be available after tomorrow. The dinner this year is at: Fairmont Royal York Imperial Room - Lobby Level April 19th, 2017 6pm - 10pm Tickets: Presentation only - $100 - increase to $150 after April 5th Presentation & Buffet Dinner - $200 - not available after April 5th We will also have a silent auction, etc as usual. Please buy your tickets at: http://www.cornerofberkshireandfairfax.ca/ - Left-hand side, scroll down half a page. or http://www.pdh-inc.com/investor-relations.html - Scroll down half a page. Cheers!

Yeah, I don't think those posts can be retrieved because they had to load an earlier saved copy of the database when restoring. So any posts from the 1st, 2nd or 3rd aren't there anymore. Cheers!

Hi Folks, No idea what happened this time, but the site was down for most of the day! On Saturday, the website host had a problem with the server we were on, when their drive and mirror drive both failed. They moved us to another server and I thought things were fixed. Today, I spent the better part of 3 hours trying to convince them that something was wrong, as I could not access the site, and they kept telling me they could! Finally, they realized something was wrong after I sent them numerous screen shots. I'm still not sure what went wrong, but it may be time to upgrade the forum once again. I will keep you in the loop! That being said, I believe they had to reload from the database at an earlier time, so we may have lost some posts as well as a couple of member registrations. I can't fix the posts, but will follow up with those that paid their registration fee and get them all set up. Once again, thanks for being patient! If you could do me a favour: If you had problems accessing the site today, please reply to this thread with a quick post. Cheers! Sanjeev

Hi there folks, Last chance to buy dinner tickets! They will not be available after Tuesday. Presentation tickets will be available right up until the door opens, but at $150 starting Wednesday. Thanks very much for those that have bought their tickets! Sanjeev

Hi there folks, Last chance to buy dinner tickets! They will not be available after Tuesday. Presentation tickets will be available right up until the door opens, but at $150 starting Wednesday. Thanks very much for those that have bought their tickets! Sanjeev

Hi LongHaul, The number of flaky people hasn't increased...you are just getting old! ;D The proportion of flaky people stays the same in the universe, not unlike the Law of Conservation of Energy. When one flaky person disappears, you always have another form of flakiness appear in the universe. Eg Pamela Anderson...Kim Kardashian; Bobby Brown...Justin Bieber; Jane Fonda...Kanye West; Dan Quayle...Donald Trump. It all gets recycled by the universe! Cheers!

Not a multi-millionaire like Uccmal or Ericopoly, but I am a millionaire...had to spend a good chunk of my money in the early years to survive, so that I could finally build CMC, MPIC and PDH...although if you include my house then I am. I don't know what drives me. It was like the first sunny Saturday and Sunday in Vancouver in four months and I was/am sitting in the office both days. No one is here in the entire building other than me! I'm finishing off the PDH annual letter, and I have to finish off the MPIC annual letters in the next day or two. All i know is that I have a lot fun coming to work. Most people don't like going to work, but do so because they need the money or the money is really good. I don't spend alot of money and if I could afford to do what I do for free, I would do it. Funny thing is, the more you are in this world working at what you love, the more you attract like-minded people who are doing the same...be it as a value-hedge fund manager or some other venture/occupation. I just love business. I love how business works...how it affects our daily lives...how people feel about their business. I like owning or building something that people like or can use. The treasure hunt aspect of being a value fund manager is all well and good, but you aren't building anything...you're shuffling money from one idea to another. But when you also operate a business or at least help guide its direction, and then how that fits into the world and people's lives...it's very intriguing! Lastly, I always hated working for others where they disrespect you or left you feeling undervalued or unappreciated. I didn't want to ever work for anyone else again, and I wanted to do what I wanted exactly when I wanted. I don't get in the office until 10-10:30am, but I don't leave until 7:30-8pm. I rarely leave my desk for lunch, and generally work for the entire time I'm in the office. Today I get to do exactly that! I've met Warren Buffett a few times...I've met Wayne Gretzky a couple of times...I'm friends with the exact hedge fund managers that I looked up to and wanted to copy 12 years ago...Prem Watsa is the biggest investor in my fund...I run a public company and get to acquire and start businesses...I work when I want, I sleep when I want, I eat when I want and both me and my family are very comfortable. You would think I would work less in that case, but I actually work more...it's just so much fun to me! Cheers!

Also, Scotty is like Andy Kaufman...his art is trying to get people to freak out one side or the other. You don't have to like his art, but you have to admit it is well thought out and solicits some sort of response from the reader. I wouldn't be surprised if some hedge fund gives him a billion dollars to manage pretty soon. Then he'll be on CNBC, his fund will blow up after buying up a basket of AI stocks, and he'll be prosecuted by the Justice Department for using fund capital for his coke habit with Jim Chanos. Finally, he'll finish off with a tell-all memoir on how he got his start here on COBF, and what an ass the site administrator is. But he will never let the facts get in his way...only yours! Hope that little blurb was up to your standards Scotty! ;D Cheers!