Parsad

Einhorn? How about Herb Greenberg or Jim Chanos? Cheers!

I agree. Both came off as idiots, crybabies and I wouldn't do business with either. I was somewhat offended by Icahn's Neanderthal-like comment about Ackman being "like one of those little Jewish kids we picked on in school." Shows exactly what type of asshole Icahn is...no wonder SB idolizes him! Cheers!

That's pretty damn funny...you really have to wait for the punch line, because he sounds exactly like he did on CNBC for the first few minutes. Cheers!

Seriously? No! I was just joking. Cheers!

It finally ended now. Made my whole day! You all should watch on the replay later on CNBC's site. I wish I could record and save that clip. Cheers!

Icahn just called Ackman a liar...and in the background you can hear the market specialists going "Ohhhhh....whoooo!" Bare-knuckle brawl going on here. Cheers!

Wow, this is frickin' awesome! Ackman has just gone completely off on Icahn. Patrick Byrne is sitting at home laughing away, polishing his glock. ;D Now, Ichan is going off on both the host and Ackman. Cheers!

Ackman says..."I was afraid of dealing with Carl Icahn, because frankly, Carl Icahn does not have a good reputation!" Swing Ackman, swing...otherwise this guy is going to take you down. Cheers!

Actually, I have to tell you guys the truth...Ackman and Icahn have been feuding on this message board for years under nicknames. Now you guys know why some of our threads go on forever. Actually, they were the ones behind the LVLT thread. ;D Cheers!

Icahn's best quote..."On Wall Street, if you want a friend, get a damn dog!" Cheers!

Everybody on Wall Street is going to be talking about this. I think this is just the start of a very long-time feud now. Cheers!

This is so damn funny! Icahn's such a dick...very funny. Cheers!

Are you guys watching this right now on CNBC?! Ackman was on there talking about Icahn, and now Icahn has called in to refute comments live...turn your damn television sets on...this is the new version of Jersey Shore! What are these two morons thinking? Cheers!

Article on the feud, and the past experience behind the feud, between Carl Icahn & Bill Ackman. Very funny that both of these schmucks think they are the pillars of ethical behavior! Although I am always entertained by Ackman's presentations...whether I agree or not. Cheers! http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2013-01-24/icahn-says-no-respect-for-bill-ackman-after-herbalife-bet.html

About right for the institutions! ;D Cheers!

Interview with CEO of Whole Foods, John Mackey. Cheers! http://finance.yahoo.com/blogs/off-the-cuff/whole-foods-founder-says-global-warming-not-big-224803744.html;_ylt=AgufCjwa6kMfRGe8hEG5X.qiuYdG;_ylu=X3oDMTQ4bTg0OHBsBG1pdANDTkJDIFRvcCBTdG9yaWVzBHBrZwM3MzExNjRhZC0zZmQ3LTNiZTctYjc5NC1hYWZkYjA3MmRiODYEcG9zAzUEc2VjA01lZGlhQkxpc3RNaXhlZExQQ0FUZW1wBHZlcgMxZWU1YTRkMC02NjQxLTExZTItYWRmNS0xZDYzZWZmZGExNjM-;_ylg=X3oDMTFpNzk0NjhtBGludGwDdXMEbGFuZwNlbi11cwRwc3RhaWQDBHBzdGNhdANob21lBHB0A3NlY3Rpb25z;_ylv=3

Fool.com video...clips of Mohnish in there. Cheers! http://www.fool.com/investing/general/2013/01/23/2013-and-beyond-investing-after-the-great-recessio.aspx

I agree that a "softer" version of #4 is the best interpretation for what HE thinks will happen - a decrease in productive capacity will trigger interest rates to increase, but in my mind that makes the theory [GDP decrease] -> ??? -> [spiking Interest Rates!] I would simply point out that regardless of what holders of sovereign debt choose to do, the Bank of Japan can always set interest rates, as they have the ability to buy every Yen-denominated bond in existence and replace them with reserves, which simply act like checking accounts for banks. I would characterize the risks as institutional, by which I really just mean that the yield curve or the deficit would be mismanaged in such a way that facilitated higher interest rates. Plenty of ways that can happen but Bass sure seems to be suggesting something a little more drastic than an adjustment. One thing is for sure, someone is going to be wrong! Sounds like Bass isn't paying much for the bet, though, so perhaps it's "heads I win, tails I don't lose much". I agree with you JRH. Don't know how he is playing it. The swaps are good for 5 or 10 years out? That time arbitrage is the difficult question. Cheers!

I personally disagree with Bass. Not because it isn't possible, but because it isn't likely. You can itemize the reasons that interest rates spike on sovereign debt and Japan is not standing in the headlights of any of them: 1) They can't control their money supply (i.e. Greece vs. ECB, "gold standard" situations) and debt servicing becomes unsustainable and forms a positive-feedback loop. 2) They peg their currency (target price instead of quantity - Russia 1998) - really just another form of #1 - and the exchange pressures become unsustainable and form a positive-feedback loop. 3) They hold foreign-denominated debt (Argentina 2002) and the domestic currency they print to pay it depreciates faster than they can pay off the foreign debt in a positive-feedback loop. 4) The real productive capacity of the economy collapses (Weimar Germany, Zimbabwe). Triggered by extreme societal stresses and a psychological rejection of the currency by the people. 5) The central bank SETS high interest rates in order to stamp out high inflation/high inflation expectations (Volcker, early 80's U.S.). The most viable of these options but certainly not imminent, IMO. By far, I think the most important point is that Japan is sovereign in the Yen and do not have institutional restrictions (gold standard, currency peg, etc...) that prevent them from setting interest rates wherever they want them. Whether they have future inflation is a matter of whether the economy pushes against its productive capacity, and, to a lesser extent, cost of energy, food, and other "inputs". Bass makes it sound like the BoJ can just, whoops!, one day lose the ability to set interest rates wherever they want them. All they have to manage to is aggregate demand unless Japan one day finds itself in one of the situations above. I think #4 is the one that Bass is illustrating in his presentation. Demographics suggest that Japan's social trusts are not only bankrupt, but the underfunding will continue as the population ages, immigration is limited and the number of younger Japanese carrying the burden continues to fall. At some point the Japanese population will realize that the yen will only take them so far in purchasing power. The other issue Bass commented on, related to #4, was if the central bank changes focus to an inflationary environment, why would Japanese institutions continue to hold sovereign debt when they would return 100-150 basis points below real inflation? I don't think it's a slam dunk like Bass suggests, but it is possible that Japanese institutions start to shift capital out of Japanese sovereign debt, and that's when the yield curve begins to shift because the government still needs to fund their expenditures. At best, this increase in the rate that Japan would have to pay would begin to show up in swaps, and you would start to see the world focus on Japan's finances. Cheers!

I can't believe I actually know what you are referring to. They don't make them like Jean Claude Van Damme anymore. Don't mess with me, I'm a Kumite champion. He was actually pretty good as the bad guy in Expendables 2. Yes, I did actually see that movie! Cheers!

I'm not entering the run, but I'm going to buy myself a pair of those Brooks Cadence Berkshire Hathaway Special Edition running shoes. I'm sure I'll be able to get through 10-Q's as well as those grinding 10-K's much quicker! ;D Cheers!

By the way, that's a fantastic presentation by Bass. Again, I agree with pretty much most of the things he said. Cheers!

This evening, Japan's Central Bank and government have announced that they are focusing on a 2% inflation target. Bass was saying in his presentation, that once they move from deflation to inflation, that's the end game because the swaps on the yen move and their interest costs multiply. Now you have a 2% inflation rate, while institutions and your citizens expected to remain in a deflationary environment, retaining an 80-150 basis point difference. Obviously, that cannot exist if the government is now targeting 2% inflation, while their 10 year notes pay 100 basis points and their 30 year notes are paying 200 basis points. Cheers!

Recent, excellent interactive chart from the Economist on developed country debt. Cheers! http://www.economist.com/blogs/graphicdetail/2012/09/daily-chart-10

One of the best lines I heard regarding gun control was by Stevie Wonder today: "You guys should come with me to a gun store, and see how easy it is for me to get a gun. It's just crazy...me with a gun!" Cheers!