MCR
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Article in today's WSJ about the impact of the Key Bridge tragedy on the reinsurance industry: https://www.wsj.com/finance/baltimore-bridge-collapse-could-fuel-reinsurance-pricing-e2db34fc?reflink=desktopwebshare_permalink
I hope to hear Mr Buffett's and Mr Jain's views about 1) Berkshire's likely exposure to the tragedy in Baltimore, 2) their thoughts on the likely impact of this incident on the reinsurance industry as a whole, and 3) whether they anticipate any specific challenges/opportunities for Berkshire going forward.
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Thanks @nwoodman. This heart warming nugget from the Bishop's blog: "Emilie also said he placed a call from his hospital bed to Warren Buffett, his friend since 1959 and longtime business partner."
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My very first "run in" with Berkshire Hathaway was in 1993. I was about to graduate from college. My then girlfriend (now wife) had a family friend, Sam, whose family bought into Berkshire in the early years. Sam's family owned a local bank in a town in Kansas, and he was a cab driver (went to law school, didn't practice law, long story...). We bumped into Sam unexpectedly one day and he was talking about something called "Berkshire Hathway". He was wearing a Berkshire Hathaway hat and talked about going to some meeting. I don't recall if he mentioned Warren Buffett or not. I didn't know what Berkshire Hathaway was and, not wanting to look dumb, I didn't ask any questions. There are many times I mentioned to my wife that I wished asked Sam a simple question ("What is Berkshire Hathaway?") and not worried about looking stupid. Sam was pretty loquacious and I'm sure would have talked with us for over an hour. (Thinking back, this might have been one reason I didn't ask...)
I can't remember exactly when we bumped into Sam. A shares in 1993 (no B shares yet) were between about $12K and $17.5K. This was way beyond what I had as a college student (I "owned" debt), and in a pre-Internet age (I didn't have my first email address until Fall 1993) it was not as easy to learn about Berkshire Hathaway let alone Warren Buffett and Charlie Munger. So this is doubtless pure fantasy and wishful thinking on my part that "if only..." It would be another 17 years before I "ran into" Berkshire Hathaway again...by this point those A shares would be worth over $120K. Thankfully there were B shares available by this point in time...
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2 hours ago, John Hjorth said:
I personally like this shareholder letter very much. Reading it made me think and gave the feeling : 'This is the Mr. Buffett I know and can recognize from earlier shareholder Letters!'. [
Honestly, to me personally, some of the last ones have given me a feeling of a man running out of steam, but that's just me. And that would actually and cetainly be all okay with me after this performance in more than a half century, based on actual age by now.]
Candid and honest expressions based on factual and critical thinking about the 'social contracts' between non-public owned regulated businesses and the US society as a whole.
Personally I hope for the best for all my US fellow CoBF board members in that regard, because it's important for economic future development of USA.
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A bit like asking a farmer i Western Jutland, Denmark at the end of October in a given record year for the harvest : 'How was the harvest this year?' Answer <With no excitement> : 'Not shabby, not shappy ...'
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USD 96 Billon after tax and minorities. I just say : 'Not shabby.' But unlike the West Jutland farmer, I can't move the pipe from one corner of my mouth to the other while I say it.
Isen't this the worlds second largest profit for any company on the planet, only surpassed by Saudi Aramco?
I felt exactly the same about this year's letter. It feels like a return to form. There are a few years' letters (or portions of letters) that I've shared with my kids and others. This one merits sharing in its entirety.
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Article in today's WSJ online about Greg Abel and post-Buffett era: https://www.wsj.com/finance/greg-abel-berkshire-hathaway-executive-6b7d8988?st=yi3lwjna3acnbhb&reflink=desktopwebshare_permalink
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Gregg Warren at Morningstar's take on this question (from ~8:35 mark to about 12 min mark): https://www.morningstar.com/markets/charlie-munger-warren-buffett-built-berkshire-hathaway-thrive-after-theyre-gone
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Well, this countersuit against the Haslams begins to provide some additional color on actions that might otherwise seem out of character for the culture playbook at BRK.
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From the 2023 shareholders letter in Mr. Buffett's own words:
Nothing Beats Having a Great PartnerCharlie and I think pretty much alike. But what it takes me a page to explain, he sums up in a sentence. His version, moreover, is always more clearly reasoned and also more artfully – some might add bluntly – stated. Here are a few of his thoughts, many lifted from a very recent podcast:
• The world is full of foolish gamblers, and they will not do as well as the patient investor.
• If you don’t see the world the way it is, it’s like judging something through a distorted lens.
• All I want to know is where I’m going to die, so I’ll never go there. And a related thought: Early on, write your desired obituary – and then behave accordingly.
• If you don’t care whether you are rational or not, you won’t work on it. Then you will stay irrational and get lousy results.
• Patience can be learned. Having a long attention span and the ability to concentrate on one thing for a long time is a huge advantage.
• You can learn a lot from dead people. Read of the deceased you admire and detest.
• Don’t bail away in a sinking boat if you can swim to one that is seaworthy.
• A great company keeps working after you are not; a mediocre company won’t do that.
• Warren and I don’t focus on the froth of the market. We seek out good long-term investments and stubbornly hold them for a long time.
• Ben Graham said, “Day to day, the stock market is a voting machine; in the long term it’s a weighing machine.” If you keep making something more valuable, then some wise person is going to notice it and start buying.
• There is no such thing as a 100% sure thing when investing. Thus, the use of leverage is dangerous. A string of wonderful numbers times zero will always equal zero. Don’t count on getting rich twice.
• You don’t, however, need to own a lot of things in order to get rich.
• You have to keep learning if you want to become a great investor. When the world changes, you must change.
• Warren and I hated railroad stocks for decades, but the world changed and finally the country had four huge railroads of vital importance to the American economy. We were slow to recognize the change, but better late than never.
• Finally, I will add two short sentences by Charlie that have been his decision-clinchers for decades: “Warren, think more about it. You’re smart and I’m right.”
And so it goes. I never have a phone call with Charlie without learning something. And, while he makes me think, he also makes me laugh.
Rest In Peace, Charlie.
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Wondering about the potential impact of the $1.8B - $5B ruling this week against HomeServices (and National Association of Realtors & Keller Williams) on BRK?
Bonus: on Bogleheads found a link to this interesting blogpost about the prospects for appeal of the verdict: https://notoriousrob.substack.com/p/thinking-about-nars-appeal
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4 hours ago, John Hjorth said:
Buffett Sun Valley gossip : New York Post [July 13th 2023] : Warren Buffett’s wife grumbles about $4 coffee at Sun Valley.
It's great to have a cost conscious life companion. I just hope Mr. Buffett is well.
That comment about struggling with poor balance...
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The Rational Walk has an open call for questions about the Annual Meeting and Q1 results. He's taking questions through the end of today (6/18). He says he plans to respond to questions he receives this week: https://rationalwalk.substack.com/p/ama-1-call-for-questions-on-berkshire
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18 hours ago, bluedevil said:
I was not sure I fully got the point Buffett was hinting at on oil. He seemed to be saying that oil was not a bad business now because while it was dependent on the market price of oil, the odds were the price of oil would stay reasonably high. Because if prices dip, then 5m barrels a day of US shale, which has very short lived production, will roll off the market, causing prices to recover. Did others take away the same point?
Hi, All. I was the one who submitted the question that Becky Quick asked about OXY, CVX and the Permian. While it was great to sit in the arena on Saturday and hear my question asked, honestly I don't feel like I got a direct answer. The WSJ reported in March that Permian production may have reached its peak. So, as a shareholder it would be helpful to hear the reasoning behind the position. IMO, Buffett and Munger's response to the question didn't entirely line up with this reporting -- either challenging or affirming it. I didn't gain a clearer understanding of what they see or know that others may not see or understand.
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23 hours ago, Charlie said:
Anyone asking Buffett and Munger questions?
It´s probably a good time to think hard what do you want to know from them.
Perhaps one of the last times you can ask them!
You can e-mail them to berkshirequestions@cnbc.com.
I did also ask one and it´s interesting if your questions get picked.
Cheers!
There was an article in the WSJ yesterday on WEB's history of oil-and-gas investments and anticipation that there will be questions about OXY & CVX tomorrow. As it happens, I sent a question in early April asking about BRK's investments in both companies. There was reporting in the WSJ in March that producers in the Permian are producing less oil and may have reached their peak. Both OXY & CVX of course have heavy Permian presence. It would be nice to hear more of WEB's rationale. I read somewhere (can't remember where) that the OXY & CVX positions might be related to the way both companies are currently run: low capex and healthy share buybacks at both companies. But I'd much prefer to hear from WEB and CTM themselves about this.
I agree it would be cool to hear Becky say your name and ask your question. We'll see what happens... -
On 3/31/2023 at 7:46 PM, crs223 said:
i emailed the CNBC marketing person and got two indecipherable responses to this question:
We know that CNBC “streams” the meeting on their “website”.
Q: Does CNBC broadcast the meeting on their TV channel?
… I’m preparing a watch party at my house …
Here you go...
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WSJ - "U.S. Shale Boom Shows Signs of Peaking as Big Oil Wells Disappear"
Obvious question is how to think about those Oxy and Chevron investments. Anyone got a bead on this? Energy outside of my circle of competence...
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Just saw Adam Mead Tweet about ROIC.AI: "It's like ValueLine for free."
What do you think? https://roic.ai/company/BRK-A -
Hotels close to the building are very expensive. Prices always higher for the weekend of the annual meeting. If you're going to go, I'd jump on housing ASAP. Don't forget AirBnB.
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1 hour ago, longterminvestor said:
this thread has me thinking a lot about the auto insurance market. I could sit down and crack open the 10-K's of the publicly traded auto insurance companies....or maybe someone already did that. Does anyone know of a good - recently up to date within the past 1-2 years - of research on auto insurance companies as a business? Like a research report (dirty word and I cringe saying it out loud). Just Curious - someone may have a link or something?
Not exactly what you're looking for but probably a decent start: https://rationalwalk.com/auto-insurance-competitive-dynamics/
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1 hour ago, gfp said:
One thing progressive factors in is the expected lifetime of you keeping your policy with them. They target a 96 combined ratio but they target that over the total lifetime of the customer. So they have names for each type of customer at PGR. The best are the Robinsons (like your family if you were bundling multiple types of coverage with them, owns home, owns the cars, etc), next sounds like you, the "Wrights" - because you didn't mention bundling other types of insurance with your auto but you have multiple cars and multiple drivers - and then they have "Dianes" which rent their home but have multiple insurance products and the worst (shortest life, most fickle to price changes, inconsistently insured) category are called "Sams."
So because a "Sam" will likely only be around a year or so, they need to price that customer to expect the 96 combined ratio right off the batt. But for a "Wright" like your family, they can price a lot more aggressively because they are targeting that 96 combined ratio over the entirety of your (longer) expected life as a customer.
That's interesting...didn't know about the 96 combined ratio target. We are definitely Wrights...this is interesting background.
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21 minutes ago, gfp said:
I am curious if you agreed to use PGR's "snapshot" telematics or did you opt not to?
No, I did not agree to use it. Again, I was pretty shocked by the price differential.
Berkshire Hathaway Annual Meeting 2024
in Berkshire Hathaway
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