ragnarisapirate

This is one of the best items that I think I have seen posted in a while. Thanks plan. As a side note, I think that when you couple that with this (M2) you can get a lot of clarification on things. http://research.stlouisfed.org/fred2/series/M2 This economy is like a sponge that can't seem to get enough money sucked up... It's crazy when you think about it. To me, it's not a matter of if corporations start spending money again (and banks are making loans again), but when they do... We also have a bunch of baby boomers that are ready to start spending their nest egg- I would think that would help out as well When that happens, it would seem to me that price inflation will go bananas given how it would pick up the velocity. The Dow may go up a ton, but will it be in perfect "real" numbers? Well, that seems to be the question behind one of the greatest experiments in monetary history. As a side note, if we cap our budgetary spending here in the US (somewhat through sequester, or whatever) this inflation could take care of a lot of our budgetary woes. Ken Fisher talked about stuff like that with economic growth- I think. Anyway, I think this is a fascinating time for us to be alive in... if nothing else, just to see who is proved right!

It's why I use Ajay's team at UBS. They will work the trade for us at their trading desk, and then we are charged solely on a per share basis. Otherwise, you will have to look for blocks that are offered and try to buy them. Cheers! "work the trade" Care to explain a bit of the strategy behind that? I believe it just means to attempt different strategies to get the best execution for large blocks of shares, usually illiquid ones. "pinging" for limit orders, doing stuff with VWAP (I'm no trader so I don't know the intricate details...) Those details (or even broad concepts) are something that I would LOVE for Sanjeev to share. :)

It's why I use Ajay's team at UBS. They will work the trade for us at their trading desk, and then we are charged solely on a per share basis. Otherwise, you will have to look for blocks that are offered and try to buy them. Cheers! "work the trade" Care to explain a bit of the strategy behind that?

No offence, this looks like one of those Chinese companies that look too good to be true. Mind you I just only looked at it very briefly. Be careful That's why it's cheap: nobody likes US listed Chinese companies, especially if it's obscure and unknown. But not everything is fake in China. Wrote almost a year ago some of my thoughts on why DSWL isn't a fraud on my blog here. Since then they have paid a special dividend and increased the regular dividend. That's not how you run a fraud! ;) Or, it's how you run a fraud when you know how to play game theory with investors... ;)

I have no dog in this fight (and am not going to buy/sell/or do anything with the stock), but simply talking about the organic growth showing no signs of slowing is kind of a bad way to look at this. By nature, pyramids are a lot like ponzi schemes in that once enough people get screwed, they move on to the next thing and there aren't people to come back. Bernie Madoff had no signs of bad returns until, well, he imploded. It is very possible that we will look back on this in a manner where the thing couldn't go to hell... It may not be that dissimilar to various RE shorts a few years ago. Furthermore, if a company loses 20% of revenues- well, bad things generally happen. Again, I have no position in this and can't see myself having one... I simply find the case fascinating.

Well, the difference between tail risks and black swans is mostly one of perspective. Yes, DA14 is going to pass below the geosynchronous orbit tonight and asteroids (like cockroaches) are hardly ever alone. Russia is the largest country on Earth, and therefore the most likely to see an event like this, so perhaps you could expect something like this, even it is a very low probability event. But imagine that this thing had been slightly larger, or moving slightly faster, and you had just bought shares on Magnitogorsk Iron and Steel Works, after convincing yourself of the management quality and the company prospects, and then see your investment obliterated by the violent vaporization of a house-size chunk of carbonaceous chondrite. That would certainly quality as a Black Swan. I would like to know how many russians (last week) thought that it was of any risk. I certainly don't consciously price in flying chunks of space rock into my investments...

I know that this seems to be all I talk about, but... Defense parts manufactures... SODI and MPAD are two of my favorites. If there is anything that Americans like, it is making weapons to tell other people what to do with. Even if the budget gets cut, their balance sheet and nimble operations provide safety. The sector has been beaten down relentlessly. And yes, I do consider both of them to have moats in their industries.

Wouldn't be the first time that it had happened... Out of question, does the investment wing of BH have some sort of lock up clause?

They probably couldn't get the votes for the dual class structure. What happens if those that are exhausted of this company decide that they don't want to throw any more money at it, and don't subscribe to their full alottment? I wonder who is going to oversubscribe on all of those warrants, which will probably be available at a discount to book. Maybe he should just take this thing private like Dell! ;D Cheers! I saw this and thought the same thing... That said, everything has a price in which it is cheap. Serious question: would you (or anyone else here) buy BH at a discount to tangible book? Say, $200/share? I would get tempted, though, would like to see it cheaper. I sold all my stock after the employment agreement, and have since discounted further since the licensing of his name... That was wholly ridiculous. I wonder who would be interested in essentially buying 9% of the company at this price.

Care to elaborate on the above comments? Sure, I did over the summer: http://ragnarisapirate.blogspot.com/2012/06/irrationality-in-residential-real.html People have no idea what the hell they are doing, especially when it comes to the types of repairs that these things need- or, how often they need to be made. There are a ton of problems with the majority of the housing stock out there, and people don't see it- this goes for inspectors that are supposed to verify things for the banks as well... The other shoe has yet to drop (at least here) and there are a lot of people that are not going to make the money that they thought they would. In town, one of my lenders was telling me about a veteranarian who was buying a house that he might make 10 grand on... If I was a vet, and a cash buyer, why the hell would I worry about RE? I would rather make bank as a bet and throw off my cash/time into other more lucrative ventures that I or others I know, already know about.

I wonder if BH could/would make a bid... it would immediately give the company a foot print for expansions of BOTH brands on each side of the country. IF they could swallow it... That, AND it would be a perfect excuse to issue a whole new class of stock that has no real voting power.

There was a bit in margin of safety on junk bonds and such, as I recall. It may not be what you are looking for, but is a great read.

Do research on the various systems... Sprinklers especially... If they aren't done right or need replacement, you are in for a killing of an expense. Dry systems can literally eat themselves out.

People are doing things that are nothing short of insane in the world of investment properties... At least that's the case here in Central KY. I hear stories where this is happening elsewhere as well. Short term probably good for the banks, longer term, they are going to get stuck with some really bad collateral- a lot of the people buying these houses have absolutely no idea what they are buying and the eventual expenses that they will get. Even with low interest rates, there is no way that this can go on forever.

Seriously?

Pawn shop. I used to work in 2. In my state, you lend 1/3-1/2 of what gold will scrap for (or, 1/3 the value on other stuff) and charge 20% interest per month. They don't pay and you still make money when you sell the stuff in 3 months... As with Grizzlie's high end daycare, $200K would get you going really well.

Sorry for not making this more clear. It was more of a "where do you find yourself investing" question, rather than what do you aim to invest in. I am the first person to say it's probably a mistake to put any sort of limits on what you can or can do. I just find myself investing in really small companies. Also, as far as weighting in the portfolio or number of allocations, it's really up to you. I think the best way to say it, would probably be, where do you spend the most time investing. Another question; is the concern of illiquidity due to potential redemptions of clients? Wild price swings? Or just wanting to have a historic measure of liquidity to protect you in the event that you want to get out or even establish a position with relative ease?

I ask this, as I am curious to the pools that most of the members here invest in. Personally, I am most comfortable staying below $25 million and prefer even more to be below $10 million simply because there (seems) to be a lot less competition. Though, when you aren't dealing with huge amounts of capital, you can allocate in such a way where you don't own a whole nano-cap company, and your portfolio can still preform well. Really, a lot of this poll is because I am curious as to what people think about investing in big companies. For example, Buffett invests in them now, because he has to. For some of the money managers out there, I, and I would imagine others, would be interested in hearing about how you invest as a result of your managing money (in a fund or some institutional form), versus how you would invest if it were just your own. Maybe you manage the same, but, I think that this could be an interesting discussion.

If Icahn has really come in to this trade, it almost seems that this could be one of the highest profile debates that we have had in a while- surely in terms of amount of total capital controlled by 3 hedge guys. In regards to the pig rolling in the mud, are we so certain that Ackman doesn't enjoy this sort of fight? For most, I would say that a fight isn't worth it, but that may not be the case for Ackman.

Figured there should be a poll. Thoughts?

I believe that you mean, "happy fiscal cliff!"

Speaking of building materials... Does anyone else think that the pricing of USG is a bit... um... above where it probably should be?

Has Steven Pinker said anything about this?

It seems that most of these shootings are done by white males in their late teens/early 20s. As such, I propose that we simply execute all white males in their late teens/early 20s. ;)

I'm kind of surprised that no one is talking about management compensation and how the consolidation of the income statement for various holdings (which thanks to a poison pill at CBRL, is presently a non-issue) could effect the accounting at BH, and ultimately the managerial compensation... The repercussions are quite interesting if a 20% position effects things as I would imagine they would- after all, if it hits the income statement, shouldn't it have something on the balance sheet? I am curious as to where the company's portion of earnings would hit the balance sheet. Intangible assets?