ragnarisapirate

That remains to be seen. SNS is getting ready to roll out new locations that cost about $1 million to build, and will net about the sames amount in sales every year. CMG is a great example of a stripped down operation too.

http://www.ins.state.pa.us/ins/cwp/view.asp?Q=550385&A=11 http://finance.yahoo.com/news/Kingsway-update-on-cnw-4235243177.html?x=0&.v=1 http://finance.yahoo.com/news/Kingsway-asks-court-to-affirm-cnw-1711086760.html?x=0&.v=1 Does anyone have any insight on the issue at hand? If nothing else, it seems to be an interesting regulatory dispute.

In light of this, I think that I have devised the ultimate pair trade: Long gold, short BRK. ;)

well said.

does anyone know where I can get a screen to run on a negative enterprise value? I have tried the one on Yahoo!, but for some reason, it won't work. :( Thanks in advance.

Having been to the most recent congress (on a free ticket, nontheless) I will say that it was a good experience. In fact, there is a very good Q&A, plus, you can talk to most of the speakers during the breaks. There are a bunch of good ideas that you get, and if you are managing a bunch of money, could be worth it. Every speaker gives you a few ideas by the time that they are done talking. There is certainly a lot that you miss from not being there; most notably, David Einhorn's gold position has been blown WAY out of proportion in the news and the blogosphere. he really downplayed it in the Q&A. I compare the congress to Margin of Safety; is it a good book? Yes. Is it worth $4K? Not to me... But I did really enjoy it.

My bad David. It will be on Tuesday evening.

THANKS for that link. I am super stoked to read my way through all of the back issues!

Ok, so after talking with a board member that lives in Manhattan, we have decided to get dinner at the ESPN Zone at Times Square. Right now, it looks like we will be meeting at 5:30. If you can make it, email me ([email protected]) so that I will know how many to make the reservation for. The time isn't firm, so if there is a time that works best for you, we can change it to accommodate more people. hope to hear from you.

it seems to me, that in the midst of inflation, real estate would do badly, as the main way to curtail rising consumer prices is to raise interest rates; as a lot of real estate values can be determined by interest rates, it seems that housing would do terribly when we 'take our medicine'. Say that primary residence mortgage interest rates double from 5%-10%... a $100K house suddenly becomes $5K a year more unaffordable, JUST IN INTEREST! Furthermore, if you go conventionally on the mortgage, then a person effectivly has to make another $15K a year, since the debt/income ratio that HUD likes to see is about 1/3. Obviously there are other issues that will effect the real estate market; stimulus, tax credits, population migration, the supply of housing, etc. BUT, it seems to me that inflation would be good for the debtors of the real estate, provided that they don't leave their homes, and continue to pay their fixed rate mortgage with cheaper dollars.

ok, so, I will throw this out, to stir up the pot (props for alerting me to the link go to Joe Koster) http://www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/hayman.pdf quite frankly, I find it pretty terrifying.

Sanjeev, Do you remember when Buffett said this? do you have a link? It would certainly be interesting to look at all of their 10Ks from a few years before he said that, then look to see what happened (and how the language in the reports changed) since that time.

I think what you are basically saying is that some people are good at capital allocation and others at marketing, but the same person is not usually good at both. This could be said about any business. The ones that market themselves the best are not usually the ones with the superior product. --Eric That is probably because good capital allocators are too geeky to deal with people, as they are perfectly content to sit alone in a room reading SEC filings all day. ;P

perhaps this guy should be the subject of a new thread: the next great ponzi scammer! :)

http://finance.yahoo.com/news/Official-Fed-will-need-to-apf-1511169380.html?x=0&sec=topStories&pos=main&asset=&ccode= So, people are saying that rate hikes are gonna happen, and quite quickly, at that... What are your all's thoughts as to how this will potentially effect stocks? For example, with higher interest rates, people will be able to afford less house, house prices could fall, which would effect the ability of banks to lend out money profitably. Specifically, it would hurt the previous loans that they had made at fixed rates. If banks are 'buying' money at higher rates, then people may shy away from stocks.

Is anyone going to the NYC VIC in 3 weeks? If so, I figured that we could try to get some board members together for lunch or something.

Would it have something to do with the tax code? Will they now not have to pay for gains in ORH common stock?

Ken Peak's selling is supposedly for estate planning purposes, which, does make sense, since he is getting to that stage of his life. He still owns a ton of the stock... a lot of the other selling is being done by people that bought @ $80+. Don't get me wrong though- Sellers seems to be a smart guy. I am sure that I am stating the obvious here; Contango is a bet on a company that can survive a long time even if they drill a lot of dry holes. In addition, they can survive, and still be profitable, even with long term low gas prices. The more levered operators on the flip side, are a bet on gas prices rising more quickly... Me personally, I am a fan of Keynes (and by extension, contango) when he said 'sometimes the markets can stay irrational longer than you can stay solvent'. With that said, I am surprised that there are not more operators that has simply 'turned the valve off', and done their part to make prices go up. In addition, if prices stay low, Contango will get a lot of good deals on leases and such.

anyone else find it ironic that his kids make more of a salary from their charities, than Buffett himself makes from BRK?

here is something to stir up the pot: Why would we not want to have activists do their bidding and have Mr. Market be as manic-depressive/short termed as possible? It seems to me that this is a great deal of what makes there be pricing inefficiencies, for us, the few value investors in the world to come in and buy everything up on the cheap. Short termism made the market tank over the past year- creating the opportunity for us all to buy things on the cheap; ORH, FFH, SNS, BRK, and ZINC are just a few of the businesses that come to mind. Certainly, I understand that there is a 'bigger picture' for macro-economic growth, which is contrary to short term performance; though, historically, I don't see how we can ever do away with that type of thinking-only hinder it a little (at best).

This is a great point; one of my favorite examples of expense making innovation happen, is the aluminum cap on the top of the Washington Monument. It was erected when aluminum was one of the most expensive metals in the world... so, it would have been dumb to not put it on the top of the monument to our first president that also lead us through the revolution... right? Then, a mere 2 years later, some guys figured out how to make the stuff cheaply via the Hall-Heroult process. Later some smart folks thought it a good idea to put beer and Coca-Cola in cans made of the stuff, due to it's cheap price. Had prices been low all along, it probably wouldn't of happened; at least, not for a much longer time.

http://finance.yahoo.com/news/Fed-minutes-officials-saw-apf-2028717293.html?x=0&sec=topStories&pos=main&asset=&ccode= Not only do I not see very many, if any green shoots, but I also think that the fed is dead wrong-at least in nominal dollars (based on the actual amount of currency). I am venturing to guess that this may be an inflationary 'bump'. I think I may buy a bunch of put options in the coming weeks. I just don't see how we are out of the woods.

Can someone with a subscription to barrons post the text of the article? thanks in advance, -jeff

that lady is crazy... her thoughts on data technology are ridiculous; yes, computers can now look at balance sheets quickly, however, can they get a feel for how much property, plant, and equipment are worth? can they value goodwill and intangible assets (both accounted and un-accounted for? can they get a feel for integrity of management? I think not. I am betting that buffett could do pretty well right now. A few months ago, he said that if he could have put his entire net worth in 1 stock, it would have been WFC @ what, 9 bucks a share? If he would have done that, he would be sitting on a 300% gain (roughly). Hell, he could do absolutely nothing for a few years and still of compounded at 50% annually.

As long as they keep buying back their debt at 50-65 cents on the dollar, I suppose that capital injections are a pretty good idea (negating some of the dilution effects that could take place). If they somehow manage to escape much in the capital injection route, then they were effectively paid 40 bucks to borrow and payback 100, all while getting the use of the money for a few years; even though former management seemed to do a bad job of managing said money.