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link01

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Everything posted by link01

  1. unlikely, imo. i think lampert really thought he could turn around the stores from the beginning with the help of a stabilizing economy, that he saw more value & better odds in that, & only now has come to the realization that much more drastic measures are needed to place their retail ops on a more competitive foundation first thru more aggressively weeding out the weaker stores.
  2. comparing lampert to biglari is way too harsh. essentially, he's following the same script with shld that he has with an & azo. year in & year out he's shrinking the share base with a portion of free cash flow, a form of financial engineering that's his peculiar trademark. he's had stellar results those other 2 co's. and the ceo's there dont seem to be in a hurry to get out of dodge due to some problem dealing with lampert's personality. he's obviously still trying to figure out how to stabilize shld & position it for the future operationally. the real estate values are only a safety net, tho a diminishing one that he probably didnt imagine the severity of 5 years ago. same thing with the weak market position at the combined shld. he missed that too. i still think that he'll eventually get it right. but in this debt laden deflationary economy i'm not a nibbler yet.
  3. he probably meant that that BH at the parent level had no debt....the sns sub certainly would
  4. i'm not sure how to interpret this part: <<This has never happened before. This was a complete breach of fiduciary duty by the Chicago Mercantile Exchange itself to the point that it literally has destroyed the entire paradigm. I got to the point where I could no longer tell my clients that their free cash customer funds, not even exposed to the market place—just their cash sitting in their account, non-margined—was not safe. I couldn’t tell them that their money was safe>> does she mean the cash in their account was non-margined, or that it was cash in a non-margin account that she felt wasnt safe either? because as the 1st paragraph from the brontecapital article listed below states: <<When you sign up to a margin account in almost all cases you pledge your securities to the broker with the ability for them to repledge. >> my understanding is that with a cash account at a brokerage- a non margined acct- your securities cant be pledged or loaned out, & are thus safeguarded from the kind of theft that she's talking about at mf global.
  5. just noticed that we now have 3 inurance holding co's that have decided to take a page from bufftett & brk's playbook & are actively seeking to buy non insurance co's: ffh, mkl, & y
  6. By Satyajit Das, derivatives expert and the author of Extreme Money: The Masters of the Universe and the Cult of Risk Traders, Guns & Money: Knowns and Unknowns in the Dazzling World of Derivatives – Revised Edition (2006 and 2010) In the first of three articles, the problems of US debt are outlined. The next two articles look at how America needs to control its public debt and how given political exigencies it may actually be dealt with. Greece and the other debt burdened European countries are merely the first carriages in the derailment of the “Sovereign Debt” Express train service to nowhere. The big carriage has ‘USA’ painted in red on it. To understand the US financial position, just remove 8 zeros and pretend it’s a household budget (The analogy was originally suggested at http://www.globalresearch.ca:80/index.php?context=va&aid=27707): Annual family income: $21,700 Money the family spent: $38,200 New debt on the credit card: $16,500 Outstanding balance on the credit card: $142,710 The US is trying to bring their budget under control. This year they implemented total budget cuts of $385. Assuming they don’t spend more than they raise in taxes, it will take them 370 years to pay back this debt. The bi-partisan US Super Committee is currently discussing proposals to cut spending by $12,000 over 10 years. At $1,200 in saving per year and assuming they balance the budget, it will then take them a mere 119 year to pay back the debt. That should clarify the position. At Debt’s Door Ralph Waldo Emerson wrote: “The World owes more than the world can pay.” The US certainly owes more than it can repay. US government debt currently totals over $14 trillion. The US Treasury estimates that this debt will rise to around $20 trillion by 2015, over 100% of America’s Gross Domestic Product (“GDP”). Even these dire forecasts rely on extremely robust assumption about US growth around 5-5.5% per annum. Lower growth will translate into higher debt levels. The rapid increase in debt will require Treasury to borrow heavily each year to repay maturing debt and raise new money. Annual interest payments will eventually exceed all domestic discretionary spending and rival the defence budget. There are other current and contingent commitments not explicitly included in the debt figures reported by the government. Since July 2008, the US government has supported Freddie Mac and Fannie Mae (known as government sponsored enterprises (GSEs)). This totals over $5 trillion in additional on or off-balance sheet obligations. The debt statistics do not include a number of unfunded obligations – the current value of mandatory payments for programs such as Medicare ($23 trillion), Medicaid ($35 trillion) and Social Security ($8 trillion). Projections show that payouts for these programs will significantly exceed tax revenues over the next 75 years and require funding from other tax sources or borrowing. In addition to Federal debt, US State governments and municipalities have debt of around $3 trillion. the rest here: http://www.nakedcapitalism.com/2011/11/satyajit-das-the-main-game-looms-the-problem-of-us-debt.html
  7. wilbur ross is one of the few private equity guys who does it right. he takes the long view, doesnt load his co's with a ton of debt, lining his pockets with quick, easy cash up front & leaving them with a tiny sliver of equity, and most importantly, he doesnt depend on a credit bubble frenzy or a rising tide of bullish mania to ring the register at a profit in contrast to so many other PE firms. he's the anti jc flowers
  8. Also notable are the following TRS positions at ORH: WFC -- $226 billion notional at $25.45 USB -- $159 billion notional at $22.17 thx for digging up these TRS disclosures. but i think those notional values for wfc & usb should be in millions not billions.
  9. great interview. bezos is a visionary, tech titan, biz wiz, & iconoclast. really, one of the greats.
  10. Ah, yes, The Bard! :) prunes, you nailed it with that quote. ironic that it should be from julius ceasar when we may be witnessing the beginnings of the modern day equivalent of the fall of rome
  11. thx, jacob! this caught my eye- tho not yet my fancy- because valueslant just linked to a very comprehensive analysis of trox on his blog. "Lisa Hess Titanium prices should rise 300% due to production bottlenecks and increase demand Recommend 2 stocks to buy: ILU:AU Iluka and TROX (Tronox)"
  12. pippa malmgren had an interesting & presient piece re europe back in sept: <<News to expect in the coming days and weeks: •Greece defaults •Germany protects German banks but other countries cannot do the same thus quickly provoking multiple sovereign defaults and or bank failures, all of which may easily lead to a payments crisis in the global banking system. Derivatives are particularly at risk in terms of operation and execution. •The Euro falls in value especially against the US dollar •The Germans announce they are re-introducing the Deutschmark. They have already ordered the new currency and asked that the printers hurry up. •The Euro falls even more on any news that Germany is withdrawing from the Euro. • Legal wrangling begins as to the legality of Germany’s decision. Resolution takes years. •Germany insists that the Euro continues to exist even they do not use it any longer. They emphasize that European unification will continue and suggest new legal instruments to strengthen European Unification including new EU Treaties. The markets are focused on the imminent default by Greece. But, this is not the most important issue now. The historic development the markets have not priced in as that Germany is preparing to exit the Euro. The markets are very likely to have to contend with the re-introduction of Deutsche Marks in the near future. This is bound to mean a collapse in the value of the Euro for those countries that will remain in it (devaluation for the rest of Europe). This step may seem unthinkable but, I believe that the German government is telling us in multiple ways that there is no other solution from their point of view....>> you can read the rest at her blog here: http://www.pippamalmgren.com/77.html
  13. thats sickening. .. its nothing short of institutionalzed white collar fraud, imo. william black is right: http://www.nakedcapitalism.com/2011/04/william-black-why-arent-the-honest-bankers-demanding-prosecutions-of-their-dishonest-rivals.html
  14. http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-10-16/hong-kong-starts-trading-bullion-in-yuan-to-tap-triple-demand-.html
  15. i wish them well, it looks like they're gonna need it. i've had more frustration with ostk over the yrs than i care to remininsce about. operationally, both tactically & strategically, they some how continue to fumble the ball every time they cross the 50 yard line.
  16. fair enough, tho i think all fiat & even gold-backed currencies will inevitably fluctuate around a trend line relative to a nations productivity generated wealth & a basket of other globally competing currencies. but i wonder: do you happen to have handy a long term chart of gold priced in dollars since the US abandoned the gold standard, & also gold priced in other major currencies during that period?
  17. N.Y. Times sports writer Jonathan Mahler has hit on something in a 10.14 piece called "It's All Moneyball Now." The piece isn't entirely about the political echoes in the film, but it nails something I've been kicking around for about a month now. "Thanks partly to the cultural phenomenon of Moneyball, which demonstrated that teams didn't need a big payroll to win, we're all small-market fans now, no longer rooting for the hapless underdog -- sorry, Mets and Cubs -- but for the team that is doing more with less. "It's a subtle but significant distinction and it has unmistakable political overtones, especially during this time of rising class resentment. You didn't have to spend the day dancing around the drum circle in Zuccotti Park to see Game 5 of the Yankees-Tigers division series in New York -- with its constant cutaways to those slick-suited men hunched over their BlackBerrys in the Legends Suites -- as more than just a baseball game. "It may be time to update the old cliche that rooting for the Yankees is like rooting for U.S. Steel. Today, it's more like rooting for Goldman Sachs." http://hollywood-elsewhere.com/2011/10/occupy_moneybal.php
  18. michael lewis writes well & has a gift for putting his finger on the pulse of the important financial themes du jour & its effects on the collective psyche. but he probably doesnt have the best grasp of finance itself. again, here's a rebuttal from 'munilass': "Michael Lewis’ latest piece in Vanity Fair, “California and Bust,” begins with a lengthy defense of Meredith Whitney’s prediction that there would be a wave of defaults in the municipal bond market. I was not planning on writing a response to his article – frankly, defending Whitney’s call at this point is very much like defending Harold Camping’s prophesy on May 22nd, after even the most gullible people have realized that they euthanized their pets for nothing. Who really cares about the intransigent believers that remain, for whom a forceful narrative has always been more relevant than facts? " the rest here: https://self-evident.org/
  19. that's 1 side of the equation. the other side, net wealth, would be the excess (or shortfall) of wealth created over dilution (money printing, deficits etc). if the annual produce of the land and labour of the society increases 10% but deficits or inflation dilutes it by 4%, then you are still left with a net weath increase of 6%.
  20. munilass, aka bondgirl, also has a fantastic critique of meridith whitney & michael lewis's recent vanity fair defense of her. she knows her munis. https://self-evident.org/
  21. plus tons of cash? is this based on your reading of the behavior of the monetary base, or something else? for myself, i have to say i've never had a year where i've done more trading in & out of positions, & sometimes back in again. its partially been a result of the extreme volatility....but its also been a function of the macro landscape which i've been paying more attention to than ever before. long cash & 4 bond mutual funds ( a 1st for me, both the bonds & the mutual funds) and ffh, lre, wina, nrci, vrsk, kw, atri
  22. thx for the link to trinity ceo letter. its been a while since i revisited that name. wonder if john linnartz is still involved there? another shareholder letter that i consider a wonderful read is fastenals (fast). a shame that its stock price always so darn expensive.
  23. you might want to visit the 'mechanical investing' board at motley fool. mostly they are a bunch of statistically-inclined geeks, but there's a handful of bi-polar value guys there too who have a quant bent. especially look for posts by mugofitch. he's one of the most prolific posters there as well at the fool berkshire board.
  24. well said. i really dont find it hard to scan the contents of a thread & quickly decide what interests me or what doesnt. all boards are like that to some degree or other. the occassional pearls are what makes it worth while.
  25. Their offense lay in assuming that a company in trouble must be doing something illegal. i think its more like 'Their offense lay in assuming that a company in trouble is especially SUSCEPTABLE to making others BELIEVE they must be doing something illegal....its the old pile on theory of increasing your odds to win by kicking every which way from sunday them when they're down. totally unethical, but then as you say we're talking about sharks that smell blood.
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