KCLarkin
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Posts posted by KCLarkin
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Very funny that you ask for evidence for masks (there is substantial evidence in the literature) but then claim that 90% of people are wearing masks (with no evidence).
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This is like saying a cancer drug is very effective except that the cancer will grow.
Why don't you read that again. Slowly. It might not be the brilliant counter-argument you think it is.
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"Per capita, Ontario has 1/3 the daily cases compared to the U.S."
Per capita, Vermont has less than half of Ontario daily cases. Please explain?
Cardboard
Stop. Breathe. We are talking specifically about masks. So before using Vermont as your counter-example, you might want to look at whether they have a mask mandate. They have a much stronger mask mandate than Ontario.
As of Saturday, August 1, 2020, Vermonters and visitors are required to wear masks or cloth facial coverings over their nose and mouth any time they are in public spaces, indoors or outdoors, where they come in contact with others from outside their households, especially in congregate settings, and where it is not possible to maintain a physical distance of at least six feet.
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Tried mask mandate. Got "unprecedented levels" of Covid cases. Whats your plan?
Per capita, Ontario has 1/3 the daily cases compared to the U.S.
But I fail to see your point. You asked whether cases growing meant that masks didn't work. I gave you simple math that proved cases could grow even if masks are extremely effective.
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How do you know masks work in real life? What data you have?
https://www.eurekalert.org/pub_releases/2020-10/sfu-mms100620.php
Mask mandates are associated with a 25 to 46 per cent average reduction in weekly COVID-19 cases across Canada.
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Already 92% are wearing masks in US. Cases are going up. Does it tell us masks work?
Facepalm emoji.
Let's assume your 92% number is correct (b.s.) and that masks are 50% effective. Let's round up and pretend that masks reduce transmission 50%.
R0 ~ 2.5. So if masks are the only intervention, Rt ~ 1.25.
Cases are going up more than 25% per week! And masks are a massive success!
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"There have been a number of high-quality randomized controlled trials (RCTs) demonstrating that personal protective measures such as hand hygiene and face masks have, at best, a small effect on influenza transmission, although higher compliance in a severe pandemic might improve effectiveness."
The problem with the old, pre-Covid RCTs is compliance. You can give masks to kids in a dorm, but they are unlikely to wear them if the risk is small (e.g. seasonal flu) and there is no culture of mask wearing.
But when compliance is high, evidence suggests they are effective. One of the referenced studies:
In 154 households in which interventions were implemented within 36 hours of symptom onset in the index patient, transmission of RT-PCR-confirmed infection seemed reduced, an effect attributable to fewer infections among participants using facemasks plus hand hygiene (adjusted odds ratio, 0.33 [95% CI, 0.13 to 0.87]).
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I understand that Mr. Parsad has made the argument that by having a separate category to discuss politics it will keep these “discussions” from happening within the investment sections of the forum.
It has a very vital function. Those of us not interested in the politics discussion can mute it. There is an entire cesspool on COBF of which I am blissfully unaware.
Everyone interested in investment should immediately mute "politics".
Parsad will be removing the politics category, but that will require very deft moderation. I am hopeful but skeptical that this will be better.
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Masks are source control.
CDC Director Dr. Redfield said
"I might even go so far as to say that this face mask is more guaranteed to protect me against Covid than when I take a Covid vaccine, because the immunogenicity may be 70 percent. And if I don’t get an immune response, the vaccine is not going to protect me. This face mask will. "
There is evidence that masks offer protection, but they are primarily source control. If you are wearing a mask, even a medical one, you can still get Virus through your eyes or fomites or improper donning/doffing.
Redfield’s comment is not inline with CDC guidance, which is mostly directed at source control.
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Masks are source control.
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Interesting. Lets go back and read Feb/March/April again...when people where trying to have investment related discussions and the covid experts drowned everything out crying about Trump....
I looked. And there is almost no criticism of Trump in Feb/March. He is the President of the United States. He's going to get criticism (even if he did everything right). But blatant Trump-bashing was exceptionally rare on this thread. My guess is that you are recalling conversations from other threads.
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....and now the thread is quiet.
The thread is quiet because whenever someone tries to have an intelligent conversation, the MAGA-trolls post gibberish and nonsense to try to drown out any rational thought.
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We thought only the US couldn't get its act together with testing!! Who on the board wanted all this testing again? Clearly its working well in Europe.
With a couple minor exceptions, the places hit badly in the first wave are getting hit badly in the second wave. Comparing the U.S. only to the D/F students might be good PR, but it is a horrible way to manage a pandemic.
And to the MAGA-trolls, this has nothing to do with Him. We do it in Canada too. Quebec has done a horrible job throughout the pandemic (F grade). But the Ontario premier is getting his advice from Quebec rather than any of several provinces that are getting A or B grades.
If you actually cared about managing this epidemic, you'd be looking at Vietnam, South Korea, Japan, NZ, Australia, Taiwan, China, eastern Canada, Singapore, Thailand. Oddly, this is the same list from the start
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Because it doesn't fit their propaganda that Trump is such a mess and COVID is really scary and they should shutdown everything and kill the economy. And BTW, the economy is so bad. It must be Trump's fault.
MM, I've given you the benefit of the doubt so far since you were the one who reported the situation in Wuhan. But it is pretty clear you're just another MAGA-troll. Pandemics don't play politics. And I am done feeding the MAGA-trolls.
Edit to add: The problem isn't the MAGA. It is the trolling.
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Arizona:
https://www.cdc.gov/mmwr/volumes/69/wr/mm6940e3.htm?s_cid=mm6940e3_w
The number of COVID-19 cases in Arizona stabilized and then decreased after sustained implementation and enforcement of statewide and locally enhanced mitigation measures, beginning approximately 2 weeks after implementation and enforcement of mask mandates and enhanced sanitations practices began on June 17; further decreases were observed during July 13–August 7, after statewide limitations and closures of certain services and businesses.
AKA "herd immunity"
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For Rt to be perpetually below 1 would mean the elimination of the disease, for which is not possible. I don't think you understand the implications of this math all that well.
Hmm. It's almost like the "immunity" in herd immunity means something...
Rt for the seasonal flu can be above 1 during the winter but do we still call that an epidemic?
Yes, we do call that an epidemic. We have seasonal flu epidemics every single year.
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That's funny because i kept saying GA is the key test bed for my herd immunity hypothesis and based on infection cases/population, NYC should have reached herd immunity a long time ago.
But it doesn't matter. It doesn't fit your propoganda.
Georgia: Schools closed in Atlanta. Mask mandates. State of emergency. Gathering limits. Stay in place orders for LTC. Nice weather.
But MM has a hypothesis...
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There's a big misconception about what the herd immunity threshold even is. For many, it seems to mean the point at which 1) the virus disappears or 2) that the virus no longer spreads. But that's not possible given the thousands of different respiratory viruses that circulate normally. Rather, the herd immunity threshold is better described as the point in which the virus crosses over from epidemic to endemic. Under that definition, HIT being reached and Rt>1 is not incompatible. The virus will still be around long after the epidemic has ended.
The literal definition of HIT is Rt<1.
P.s. To the MAGA-trolls, not everything is an attack on Trump. Do you have a secret agreement that if His name isn't mentioned at least once per page, you need to invoke His name?
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Hardly signs of a second wave.
Doubt Cuomo will allow a full second wave. But increasing positivity and Rt > 1 despite heavy restrictions are clear indicators that herd immunity threshold hasn’t been reached.
Edit to add: schools and restaurants haven’t even been open a full incubation period, so too early to detect a second wave.
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That's what I kept saying for a long time. We already have herd immunity in NYC and a few other places.
Yes, you've been wrong about this for a long time.
I know you've sorta apologized for this. But you predicted 20k daily cases by the end of August. It is October and the U.S. is still over 40k cases. Cases are up since your mea culpa.
Now you are using NYC as proof of herd immunity when they just partially re-opened indoor dining? And already have early signs of a second wave?
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Sample size of 1131 is not that small. Its typically used for national polls.
https://www.scientificamerican.com/article/howcan-a-poll-of-only-100/
How can a poll of only 1,004 Americans represent 260 million people with only a 3 percent margin of error?
My guess is this sampling bias or a data error. Regardless, it is clearly an outlier.
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The NYC website is reporting 61.3% seroprevalence for NYC as of 4/11/2020, not for a borough or an area.
Not sure why you have such a hard time with stats. The data for 4/11 is a tiny sample and is an obvious outlier. The question is why?
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If CA is such a great place, why are there record amount of people leaving?
One observation. California has the three most expensive housing markets in the U.S.
1. People are willing to pay $$$$$ to live in California. "Nobody goes there anymore. It's too crowded."
2. Some people want to live in California, but can't afford it.
WTF this has to do with COVID. Dunno.
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In the end the virus always wins. There is no magic and there was nothing anyone could have done to prevent this in any country in any part of the world.
Our resident nihilist awakens. I'll send a postcard to my brother-in-law in Vietnam to share the bad news. He keeps saying they don't have Covid there.
Coronavirus
in General Discussion
Posted
“All the self-delusion has been self-defeating, as in a kind of tragic irony, the pursuit of each aim has led to its defeat.”
https://www.irishtimes.com/opinion/the-west-has-failed-us-and-europe-have-made-a-mess-of-handling-the-crisis-1.4395473