KCLarkin

“All the self-delusion has been self-defeating, as in a kind of tragic irony, the pursuit of each aim has led to its defeat.” https://www.irishtimes.com/opinion/the-west-has-failed-us-and-europe-have-made-a-mess-of-handling-the-crisis-1.4395473

Very funny that you ask for evidence for masks (there is substantial evidence in the literature) but then claim that 90% of people are wearing masks (with no evidence).

Why don't you read that again. Slowly. It might not be the brilliant counter-argument you think it is.

Stop. Breathe. We are talking specifically about masks. So before using Vermont as your counter-example, you might want to look at whether they have a mask mandate. They have a much stronger mask mandate than Ontario.

Per capita, Ontario has 1/3 the daily cases compared to the U.S. But I fail to see your point. You asked whether cases growing meant that masks didn't work. I gave you simple math that proved cases could grow even if masks are extremely effective.

https://www.eurekalert.org/pub_releases/2020-10/sfu-mms100620.php

Facepalm emoji. Let's assume your 92% number is correct (b.s.) and that masks are 50% effective. Let's round up and pretend that masks reduce transmission 50%. R0 ~ 2.5. So if masks are the only intervention, Rt ~ 1.25. Cases are going up more than 25% per week! And masks are a massive success!

The problem with the old, pre-Covid RCTs is compliance. You can give masks to kids in a dorm, but they are unlikely to wear them if the risk is small (e.g. seasonal flu) and there is no culture of mask wearing. But when compliance is high, evidence suggests they are effective. One of the referenced studies:

It has a very vital function. Those of us not interested in the politics discussion can mute it. There is an entire cesspool on COBF of which I am blissfully unaware. Everyone interested in investment should immediately mute "politics". Parsad will be removing the politics category, but that will require very deft moderation. I am hopeful but skeptical that this will be better.

CDC Director Dr. Redfield said "I might even go so far as to say that this face mask is more guaranteed to protect me against Covid than when I take a Covid vaccine, because the immunogenicity may be 70 percent. And if I don’t get an immune response, the vaccine is not going to protect me. This face mask will. " There is evidence that masks offer protection, but they are primarily source control. If you are wearing a mask, even a medical one, you can still get Virus through your eyes or fomites or improper donning/doffing. Redfield’s comment is not inline with CDC guidance, which is mostly directed at source control.

Masks are source control.

I looked. And there is almost no criticism of Trump in Feb/March. He is the President of the United States. He's going to get criticism (even if he did everything right). But blatant Trump-bashing was exceptionally rare on this thread. My guess is that you are recalling conversations from other threads.

The thread is quiet because whenever someone tries to have an intelligent conversation, the MAGA-trolls post gibberish and nonsense to try to drown out any rational thought.

With a couple minor exceptions, the places hit badly in the first wave are getting hit badly in the second wave. Comparing the U.S. only to the D/F students might be good PR, but it is a horrible way to manage a pandemic. And to the MAGA-trolls, this has nothing to do with Him. We do it in Canada too. Quebec has done a horrible job throughout the pandemic (F grade). But the Ontario premier is getting his advice from Quebec rather than any of several provinces that are getting A or B grades. If you actually cared about managing this epidemic, you'd be looking at Vietnam, South Korea, Japan, NZ, Australia, Taiwan, China, eastern Canada, Singapore, Thailand. Oddly, this is the same list from the start

MM, I've given you the benefit of the doubt so far since you were the one who reported the situation in Wuhan. But it is pretty clear you're just another MAGA-troll. Pandemics don't play politics. And I am done feeding the MAGA-trolls. Edit to add: The problem isn't the MAGA. It is the trolling.

Arizona: https://www.cdc.gov/mmwr/volumes/69/wr/mm6940e3.htm?s_cid=mm6940e3_w AKA "herd immunity"

Hmm. It's almost like the "immunity" in herd immunity means something... Yes, we do call that an epidemic. We have seasonal flu epidemics every single year.

Georgia: Schools closed in Atlanta. Mask mandates. State of emergency. Gathering limits. Stay in place orders for LTC. Nice weather. But MM has a hypothesis...

The literal definition of HIT is Rt<1. P.s. To the MAGA-trolls, not everything is an attack on Trump. Do you have a secret agreement that if His name isn't mentioned at least once per page, you need to invoke His name?

Doubt Cuomo will allow a full second wave. But increasing positivity and Rt > 1 despite heavy restrictions are clear indicators that herd immunity threshold hasn’t been reached. Edit to add: schools and restaurants haven’t even been open a full incubation period, so too early to detect a second wave.

Yes, you've been wrong about this for a long time. I know you've sorta apologized for this. But you predicted 20k daily cases by the end of August. It is October and the U.S. is still over 40k cases. Cases are up since your mea culpa. Now you are using NYC as proof of herd immunity when they just partially re-opened indoor dining? And already have early signs of a second wave?

My guess is this sampling bias or a data error. Regardless, it is clearly an outlier.

Not sure why you have such a hard time with stats. The data for 4/11 is a tiny sample and is an obvious outlier. The question is why?

One observation. California has the three most expensive housing markets in the U.S. 1. People are willing to pay $$$$$ to live in California. "Nobody goes there anymore. It's too crowded." 2. Some people want to live in California, but can't afford it. WTF this has to do with COVID. Dunno.

Our resident nihilist awakens. I'll send a postcard to my brother-in-law in Vietnam to share the bad news. He keeps saying they don't have Covid there.