bargainman
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Posts posted by bargainman
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Ultimately you have day 1 companies and day 2 ones. You also have companies affected by the innovators dilemma that refuse to adjust and disrupt themselves, and they die slowly or consolidate. I guess some would say that software is tech? But pure software plays are less frequent these days. Marc A. famously penned "software is eating the world" to explain.
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Anyone watched Tony Seba's presentation. Predictions seem wild but not out of line if cost curves continue
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On 10/25/2023 at 10:33 AM, ValueArb said:
Looks like an opportunity to short ARKK again has passed, it's back trading in the $35 range from a peak at beginning of August at nearly $50. Cathie can console herself that she is still up nearly 20% on the year, given that Dec 2022 ended at ARKK's five year low just under $30.
It's not the tech stocks, I compared her chart to the QQQ, and it is up far more this year and its decline since August is far less. Thats been the norm since Cathie's hot year ended in Feb 2021, the QQQ has done far better than ARKK in almost every period.
Well she states that she's not an index follower and only holds TSLA of the Magnificent 7, so that's unsurprising.
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Haven't you heard, Eddie wants to be the next amazon!
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On 12/13/2023 at 12:52 PM, Munger_Disciple said:
Clearly Buffett mis-judged the character of Haslams when he bought Pilot. Hopefully he will lean into more share buybacks (zero risk) and refrain from buying "family" controlled large businesses in the future. There probably aren't that many out there anyhow.
Who knows, maybe SpaceX and OpenAI will want a private buy out one day
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Probably when I bought Hansen before it became monster drink. Dumbest investment was selling 1/3 after it had tripled to "get my investment back"
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On 12/20/2023 at 8:21 AM, Gmthebeau said:
Cramer is a complete idiot.
https://www.thestreet.com/personalities/mad-money-jim-cramer-net-worth
sure he is. He makes 5-12 million a year and is worth over 150 million. Obviously an idiot. Also went to harvard law school and wrote several best selling books.
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Getting that 3K yearly loss vs income tax!
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Anyone looked at the Morningstar buyback etf? Looks like more of a dividend etf now but I wonder if the buyback strategy is still working these days...
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On 12/20/2023 at 3:53 PM, schin said:
Steve Jobs loved cash hoards... and once he passed away, Tim Cook started doing a lot of buy back, which is a good thing to do with capital when the stock was a lot cheaper.. but, again, Steve would never had let that happen.
Two, Steve was never a fan for having multiple SE and Plus versions of a base product.. but, again, that mandate got thrown out the window when he passed away.
We'll see how it plays out...but, they cannot manage from the grave anymore.
Well, Apple was a very different company. They went from a niche high end computer maker to creating a new smartphone market with 50%+ marketshare in the US. Tim wasn't Jobs but he adjusted to the times and market size.
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Everyone's been talking about that Cali Li find. Good to see BRK get some of it...
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Makes me think of the 2 quotes...
When a management with a reputation for brilliance tackles a business with a reputation for bad economics, it is the reputation of the business that remains intact.
“Go for a business that any idiot can run – because sooner or later any idiot probably is going to be running it.”
So which is BRK?
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Lots of CNBC talking heads happy about the fed's soft landing potential. We'll see how that plays out. But I wouldn't fight the fed!
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Sorry if this is a dumb question, but has FFH's stock portfolio over/underperformed indices over time?
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What's the speed and cost of transactions on the major coins these days?
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On 12/22/2023 at 7:41 AM, rkbabang said:
Nancy Pelosi votes $NVDA for 2024. She just bought 50 Dec 24 NVDA $120 strike calls. I'd be more bullish if she bought out of the money calls, but still, maybe she knows something we don't.
That's very deep in the money, may as well be just a buy. Amusingly there's an ETF called NANC that's tracking democratic congress purchase. There's one for the Republicans too.
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Anyone looking at Paypal?
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I'll paraphrase Bezos and say "it's day one". If the company ever thinks it's day two, it'll die. Tech companies are on the cutting edge. They need the best people and the monetary tools to recruit and keep them. Without that they fade and get taken over by other up and coming tech. wrt "I'd use a product other than Google if it were as good". Chances are you use the default. The default on android, ios, your browser etc. Very few people change the default unless it's extremely compelling and easy. Like when Chrome came out and people actively installed it instead of IE.
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On 3/21/2022 at 6:30 PM, Parsad said:
What's a Nespresso clone machine? You mean a non-Nespresso brand that uses Nespresso capsules? If so, yeah it's all good! Who cares if it isn't the Nespresso brand. As long as you still get good coffee out of it!
I have an older Nespresso, and I use it only for espresso. Otherwise, I do pour overs using non-bleached filters and an old small strainer. You don't need fancy, schmancy stuff to make good coffee. But you do need good coffee to make good coffee!
Cheers!
yes it's called the Mixpresso!
I think it was about half the price of the actual branded machines or maybe not quite that cheap but significantly so. anyway I really hesitated because the environmentalist in me is very sad LOL but the coffees pretty good and adds some variety to my life. especially with work at home covid life. on the other hand I do try to buy the branded pods and then get the free recycling bags to return to them. I remember reading a study about how the pods are actually less environmentally impactful than drip coffee which surprised me. but according to the study, the majority of the environmental impact is due to the coffee beans, and since espresso pods use so little coffee like OMG so little coffee :-), that makes up for the waste of the pod.. plus if I actually recycle it, that will use up a whole pile of energy to smelt the aluminum but at least that will get reused instead of put in a landfill somewhere... all the little debates between the characters in my head
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hmm.. I got a nespresso clone machine during the pandemic, does that count?
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On 3/17/2022 at 10:07 AM, RedLion said:
Covered my AAPL short at $159. I went short back on December 15 at $178 and plowed the proceeds of the shortsale back into BRK.B (which is up ~17% in the meantime). I'm holding onto the BRK.B, used margin to cover AAPL short.
What's your strategy here? Some sort of arb?
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Their intro video is pretty funny too
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15 hours ago, KJP said:
A good essay on this topic: https://philo.substack.com/p/scarcity-truthers?s=r
oof that bit about the medical association limiting supply really hits a hot button. In the meantime healthcare costs keep on climbing....
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Interesting that Bitcoin seems better than ETH now, I thought it was the opposite before.
What's the state of Bitcoin cash? Wasn't that supposed to solve this issue?
Also how about all the mining/climate/carbon impact? Are any strategies to mitigate that panning out?
What Is the Best Investment That You've Ever Made?
in General Discussion
Posted
Actually, I take this back, my best investment was choosing the career I did, and the company I work for.