dpetrescu

wow this is the first time I’ve seen someone here invest in SSD. That’s my life long investment punchcard. Welcome to the club! any highlights from the other names you mentioned?

Bough a bunch more Simpson Strongtie. This is my forever 80% of portfolio position. Below expectations earnings - down almost 12% at the bottom today. They definitely are tied to housing starts. Love to see the PE under 20 on this

All SAAS companies haven’t truly recovered and haven’t interesting you were shorting all SAAS companies haven’t really participated in the market boom of the last couple years. definitely some valid concerns and risks. I just keep buying ADSK for the last decade plus just because of their unique competitive advantage. Just got a bunch of 2 year LEAPs art the dip this morning im sure everyone here is tired of me talking about ADSK :).

I think I agree there. I’m using Revit every day for work. I can say it still has a long very long runway - as contractors and builders adopt it. Then product manufacturers are adopting it. And owners adopt it and maintain it for maintenance, records, and future renovations expansions. And public agencies still have pre-2006 2-d Autocad standards, they’re slowly adopting it….very slowly. Surprising how slow the BIM/3d adoption is considering its old tech by now for public agencies. the curveball is AI. I can imagine AI giving Autodesk either a bigger advantage or maybe risk of taking share away from residential and small commercial firms.

How do they mess up their accounting and delay their annual report? And all this after a big earning beat. I imagine this could fall another 10% or more. Either way I’m buying - hoping to load up on another 5% drop over the next week or weeks! what do you think of long term AI risk to Autodesk?

My approach is to find a couple companies that have a strong long lasting competitive advantage in a niche market - that can increase revenues and earnings at near double digit rates every year for decades and decades and is at low risk of tech disruption. this way you can have your entire portfolio in only a couple companies for decades. And the most importing - you feel comfortable doubling down every time it’s down big. Also makes investing easy….that is, once you find these two gems

Money is a scam if it’s not towards a purpose - to bring value. For me personally as an architect - I will always put the vast majority of my wealth into cost of building a custom home. Without much regard to market value of the house, without caring much if construction cost results in higher resale value. I do agree that big houses are such a waste. I’d rather have a smaller quality custom house than a wasteful mansion. PS….as much as I look up to Charlie for his general wisdom in all things and investing. He was not a good architect - his proposed design for the California residence structure is a massive monstrosity.

Haha yea, best to invest in what you know and use!

Currently: 75%……..Simpson SSD 15%………Autodesk LEAPs 10%………Cash, Tyler TYL, BYDDF, Pinduoduo LEAPs (last couple weeks have been using PDD gains to buy ADSK), and also a few surviving Alibaba LEAPS:) I imagine in 2025 this will be about the same. Thinking of using the remaining PDD gains to get a decent Alibaba position?? Not sure yet

Yea exactly - it’s something easy to understand. They make metal connectors for wood framing. That’s it - just keep churning out these things and sell them - in a small market with just a couple or so manufacturers. Very refreshing simplicity in the era of high tech and AI.

Simpson (SSD). It’s pretty much all I talk about on here . So I hate to be a broken record. I use their products in my field so I feel I have a good understanding of it. Its had a good run up and share price is very expensive today.

My best investment has been after I stepped away from being a Buffett clone to uncovering hidden gems in my own professional field. A long time ago I found a great company and invested in it. And I had such great conviction in it. The error was in not going all in (Soros and the juggular). Years later I realized this, I overcame my regret - and went all in, made this one company the vast majority of my portfolio and threw out the other junk. Worked amazingly. That might be the biggest challenge with investing (as anything of value in life) - lessons and rewards are best understood over a great portion of time passed - in decades.

My two best ideas going forward are the same as last year: 1. SSD - Simpson this company continues to amaze me. Perfect for a 50 year holding. Just one minor note… being such a wonderful company, it is today very very highly valued after a couple big corrections. So you might need to deal with a 30% to 40% correction in 2024. Aside from that technicality, it will continue to be my 75% holding and I will just keep buying in 2024 . If we ever have a world war 3, Simpson will also act as a complimentary sleep aid - will help you sleep through worst of times worry free. 2. ADSK - Autodesk This will continue to be the Robin to the Batman in my portfolio for 2024 These two together will continue to make up 95% of my portfolio. Another wonderful company. While many know about its strong competitive advantage - I’ve reached the conclusion that even the most fancy of analysts don’t truly understand the depth of that advantage. Stock price has been miraculously flat for a few years but we might be seeing a breakout. Also of note a minor detail - the share price is veeerreyyy! expensive. But then again - if you’re like me and planning to hold it for 20 years, then it makes sense and I also just keep buying this one and can’t wait to keep buying in 2024. And I hope this one also sees a 30 - 40% correction in 2024 but I’m not waiting for it. The big risk with this one: still not sure how the decline in demand for new commercial office buildings could impact it over the next decades. With some decent percentage working from home currently and that percentage likely to grow over time. This is the big unknown for me. Bonus idea: I hate to be obvious but yes…Alibaba. I’m hoping to scrape up some funds to maybe make this a minor #3 in the new year? Not sure yet…maybe for 4%? Reminds me of the cake in the trash Seinfeld episode - it’s a perfectly good piece of cake thrown in the trash. Everyone is just to scared to pick it up. Maybe 2024 is the year of George?

Similar to the flowering waters analogy. You could also think of relationships. Maybe it’s best to go from polygamists to monogamists…or as close as possible. About a year ago I sold everything except 2 companies - 2 making up 95%. (Technically I still kept a few other investments as out of the money options for that last 5%. Ive never felt more confident. Even when one of the positions fell 30%, I just kept adding more. Took me 15 or more years to learn this lesson - but I guess no amount of convincing would have changed my mind 15 years ago.

Bought some more 2 year Autodesk options over the last week.