Peregrine
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Posts posted by Peregrine
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The doctor in charge of a Bay Area, Calif. trauma center said the state should end its lockdown orders after an “unprecedented” spike in suicide attempts amid the coronavirus pandemic.
“We’ve never seen numbers like this, in such a short period of time,” Dr. Mike deBoisblanc, head of trauma at John Muir Medical Center, told local station ABC7. “I mean, we’ve seen a year’s worth of suicide attempts in the last four weeks.” He added that he thinks “it’s time” to end the state shutdown.
The article is based on one doctor's testimonial. There's no data at all. One person squashed by a UFO landing on his head would also be 'unprecedented'. What kind of numbers are we talking about here?
Prior to COVID-19, there were more auto-accident fatalities than suicides in the US. I imagine that relationship has flipped and will revert when things open up again.
I wouldn't be surprised if the experience in that one hospital is fairly consistent in a lot of other places. And it's not just suicides, but there's been growing evidence of collateral damage in a lot of other areas in public health.
Here are a few other examples:
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CDC just came out with their new estimate for the infection fatality ratio (IFR) - 0.27%. Are we just dealing with something as deadly as the flu but since it's novel, it's far more easily spread?
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I hate Trump in that intentionally or unintentionally he has politicized everything. Even discourse on the coronavirus has devolved along strict partisan lines. Makes discussing policy with a balanced and objective mindset basically impossible. If you even question the rationale about the lockdowns, you're immediately called a Trump-lover by many on the left - even if you yourself identify more with the left.
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One thing that doesn't get much mention about Berkshire's massive cash hoard is the fact that they have a massive reinsurance operation. Who knows the kind of claims that come out of this pandemic and Berkshire's first obligation above all is to ensure that they have the capital to withstand even the most dire of scenarios.
That the market as a whole isn't cheap? I think most of us can agree on that. The spike down was swift and didn't stay there long.
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He compares Berkshire's stock with all the other opportunities out there, so not surprised that he hasn't bought back stock meaningfully.
As for the virus, it seems to me that he's a lot more apprehensive about people's reaction to the virus than the virus itself.
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Singapore continues to have exceptionally low mortality (1/1000 of confirmed cases). This could be due to:
1) Recent rise in infections (deaths could surge in the coming weeks)
2) Aggressive testing (leading to large # of confirmed cases), contact tracing (limiting spread to vulnerable groups)
Or, more optimistically:
3) Protection in the host in humid/warm (tropical) climates due to factors such as enhanced innate immune protection of lung--which has been shown with Influenza:
https://www.pnas.org/content/116/22/10905
If #3 is true, one would hope for a drop in mortality during the summer months in the Northern Hemisphere. Also if true, perhaps this would be the ideal time to catch it and (hopefully) develop immunity. This is all speculation at this point.
What does the demographic distribution of Singapore's confirmed cases look like?
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The thing about Sweden...they readily admitted that their death count per capita will be higher than Scandinavian neighbors as a result of their strategy because of a higher rate of infections. But they're also going to see a steeper rise and steeper drop off (like NYC is now). Hard to come to firm conclusions that their deaths per capita will be far worse than their neighbors when it's all said and done. Sweden also has more large nursing homes than other Scandinavian countries and higher population density in its major city, which will figure into the stats as well.
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Sweden
It seems a bit harsh to constantly review Sweden on the number of deaths compared to their neighbours as their policy was never aimed at less corona death in the first place and they were upfront about this. If someone wants to compare, you have to look at the broader picture (economic growth, quality of life), which you cannot do until much later. Despite what many predicted, their IC capacity seems to be holding.
I think it's useful to look at what this approach does vs different approach. I don't see anything harsh or unfair here.
I also saw some numbers somewhere that it's not because things arent officially closed that they aren't basically closed.. saw numbers on Swedish restaurants and theaters being basically zero, but don't remember where. Probably same for any big events, travel, etc.
Regarding Sweden -- here is an answer from their former state epidemiologist.
"I think we should wait a year when comparing the deaths in different countries."
The same epidemiologist said in another interview that compared to their neighbors Sweden has a lot more old people living in nursing homes, which have been locked down but nonetheless seem to be petri dishes for the virus to spread. And I think well more than half of COVID-related deaths in Sweden so far have come from nursing homes.
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Incredible how transmissible this virus is. In one prison, 2028 out of a total of 2,300 tested positive for the virus and close to 95% of those who tested positive had no symptoms.
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I hope the SPR bought every contract they could handle.
Very limited liquidity for the May contract as far as I'm aware.
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Not sure how worldometer counts. This is from Sweden's own public health website:
COVID ICU admissions:
COVID daily deaths:
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Florida was one of the last to shut down, only shut down for 16 days, and has one the lowest deaths per thousand in the entire country and a top 5 population.
Makes you wonder if heat/population spread>then a statewide lockdown. Texas and California would suggest the same.
I don't know the mechanics of how/why, but warm weather seems true (when it's been questioned whether it will be so) and 'viral dose' seems to matter. Healthcare workers are getting disproportionately sick and they might be skewing bad outcomes in younger brackets. That would certainly be encouraging for the broader population (that it's not as bad, to your points on what you see).
I don't know. We'll see what data shows. HC worker data is from CDC. I'll dig up the article later.
Warm and humid weather has been shown to wear off the fatty layer of other viruses, making it more difficult to attach to cells and transmit.
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Interesting data coming out of Sweden. No lockdown policy (though citizens are being extra careful) yet ICU admissions have been flat for a month and COVID deaths have been on the decline.
So it coincides with the data from the countries who have been in lockdown? Interesting. As I originally said, probably to the delight of many, Trump fucked up and panicked because it came time to either make a decision, or pass the buck. Allowing the shutdown was catastrophically stupid. Just use common sense.
"Every 1% increase in unemployment means 40,000 people die". We just increased unemployment, 100% willingly, by a gazillion million percent, because a low 5 figure number of old people and folks with conditions might die... Donald Trump.... "I'm not responsible for that"
To be fair, Sweden is a low density country with a fairly homogenous citizenry who believes in individual responsibility to society. So they're doing some social distancing themselves without the draconian lockdown orders in place.
The US saw what happened to NYC and extrapolated that to everywhere else in the country which is an assumption that is showing to be misguided with growing evidence.
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Interesting data coming out of Sweden. No lockdown policy (though citizens are being extra careful) yet ICU admissions have been flat for a month and COVID deaths have been on the decline.
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I don't get why people think his comments are such a contradiction. Berkshire emerged from 08 with a ton of liquidity as well.
Yes, Munger plunged a lot of excess cash into stocks at the Daily Journal in 09, but that's not a vast conglomerate with massive insurance operations.
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Still mind-boggling how off some of these models were.
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From what I recall, he used some margin as well.
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Really useful information from a U.S. expat in China and dispelled some of the false notions I had myself about wet markets:
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We May have to rethink when we state that China screwed up their response to the epidemic.
https://www.nytimes.com/2020/03/04/health/coronavirus-china-aylward.html
I think the screwups occurred early on but once they got going, it looks like the Chinese government really pulled all the stops. Also for now, it seems like China has stopped the spread out side of Wuhan, which to me seems like an amazing feat. Seems that the government can do quite a bit.
Another I interesting tidbit is that asymptotic virus carriers don’t seem to spread the disease. That’s good news for containment.
This fact alone is amazing:
Fifteen million people had to order food online. It was delivered. Yes, there were some screw-ups. But one woman said to me: “Every now and again there’s something missing from a package, but I haven’t lost any weight.”Some of the tidbits in the article are mind-boggling. The CT scans did 200+ a DAY whereas over here we'd be lucky to see 10 a day.
China's ability to carry out a wide coordinated move at scale with insane speed and efficiency is unmatched.
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I am from Wuhan and I have lots of friends and relatives there. I could tell you this: If you trust the government's stats of 500 infections and 17 deaths, it is no different from buying Chinese stocks merely based on their financial reports. All fake numbers.
The actual number is likely in the 100k range.
Right now even the doctors ran out of masks and gloves and are working unprotected. I don't know how much longer they can last before they are down.
I have 3 relatives infected. One staying at home, and two who spent 6 days going to each hospital to try to get hospitalized. They were all told one thing: We don't have resources for you. Go home. They finally got hospitalized yesterday. Think about it. That's after they are diagnosed positive. They are walking on the streets for 6 days while spreading the virus everywhere, with no hospital taking them in.
There are thousands and thousands of such patients.
There are also dead bodies everywhere in all hospitals. They are dead on the floor and for hours, no one comes to pick the bodies up. When they do get picked up, they are immediately sent to the funeral to be burned, without any diagnose of whether they got infected by this virus or else. Therefore the 17 death is just a joke.
Lol what? How were they diagnosed BEFORE being hospitalized?
Why not? They come to the hospital, wait for 5 hours while infecting all other patients waiting in line (and being infected as well). Then they met the doctor, who asked the nurse to do a series of lab testing for them. Then results show positive. And doctor says sorry we don't have any beds for you today. Go home and try to come here again tomorrow to see if we have any empty beds.
Your story sounds like a whole load of BS. There is absolutely no way the hospital is letting an infected victim just go home. They’ll house them in tents if there aren’t any beds and keep them quarantined.
Are you from China?
Have relatives. If China is capable of completely shutting down 15 cities, enclosing off-boarding passengers suspected of being infected in boxes, and building a 1000-bed hospital in six days you think they’d test someone, find out they’ve been inflicted and just say “you should go home and come back another day when there’s space”?
Have you seen the videos of the hospitals? They are overrun. They probably don’t have enough tests and telling people to go home and stay inside is a decent way to contain something. Basically house arrest.
They’re full of people full of panic. Wuhan has 11 million people, just imagine what would happen once you quarantine the city and everyone’s scared shitless. Of course they’d rush to the hospital whether they have symptoms or not.
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I am from Wuhan and I have lots of friends and relatives there. I could tell you this: If you trust the government's stats of 500 infections and 17 deaths, it is no different from buying Chinese stocks merely based on their financial reports. All fake numbers.
The actual number is likely in the 100k range.
Right now even the doctors ran out of masks and gloves and are working unprotected. I don't know how much longer they can last before they are down.
I have 3 relatives infected. One staying at home, and two who spent 6 days going to each hospital to try to get hospitalized. They were all told one thing: We don't have resources for you. Go home. They finally got hospitalized yesterday. Think about it. That's after they are diagnosed positive. They are walking on the streets for 6 days while spreading the virus everywhere, with no hospital taking them in.
There are thousands and thousands of such patients.
There are also dead bodies everywhere in all hospitals. They are dead on the floor and for hours, no one comes to pick the bodies up. When they do get picked up, they are immediately sent to the funeral to be burned, without any diagnose of whether they got infected by this virus or else. Therefore the 17 death is just a joke.
Lol what? How were they diagnosed BEFORE being hospitalized?
Why not? They come to the hospital, wait for 5 hours while infecting all other patients waiting in line (and being infected as well). Then they met the doctor, who asked the nurse to do a series of lab testing for them. Then results show positive. And doctor says sorry we don't have any beds for you today. Go home and try to come here again tomorrow to see if we have any empty beds.
Your story sounds like a whole load of BS. There is absolutely no way the hospital is letting an infected victim just go home. They’ll house them in tents if there aren’t any beds and keep them quarantined.
Are you from China?
Have relatives. If China is capable of completely shutting down 15 cities, enclosing off-boarding passengers suspected of being infected in boxes, and building a 1000-bed hospital in six days you think they’d test someone, find out they’ve been inflicted and just say “you should go home and come back another day when there’s space”?
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I am from Wuhan and I have lots of friends and relatives there. I could tell you this: If you trust the government's stats of 500 infections and 17 deaths, it is no different from buying Chinese stocks merely based on their financial reports. All fake numbers.
The actual number is likely in the 100k range.
Right now even the doctors ran out of masks and gloves and are working unprotected. I don't know how much longer they can last before they are down.
I have 3 relatives infected. One staying at home, and two who spent 6 days going to each hospital to try to get hospitalized. They were all told one thing: We don't have resources for you. Go home. They finally got hospitalized yesterday. Think about it. That's after they are diagnosed positive. They are walking on the streets for 6 days while spreading the virus everywhere, with no hospital taking them in.
There are thousands and thousands of such patients.
There are also dead bodies everywhere in all hospitals. They are dead on the floor and for hours, no one comes to pick the bodies up. When they do get picked up, they are immediately sent to the funeral to be burned, without any diagnose of whether they got infected by this virus or else. Therefore the 17 death is just a joke.
Lol what? How were they diagnosed BEFORE being hospitalized?
Why not? They come to the hospital, wait for 5 hours while infecting all other patients waiting in line (and being infected as well). Then they met the doctor, who asked the nurse to do a series of lab testing for them. Then results show positive. And doctor says sorry we don't have any beds for you today. Go home and try to come here again tomorrow to see if we have any empty beds.
Your story sounds like a whole load of BS. There is absolutely no way the hospital is letting an infected victim just go home. They’ll house them in tents if there aren’t any beds and keep them quarantined.
-
I am from Wuhan and I have lots of friends and relatives there. I could tell you this: If you trust the government's stats of 500 infections and 17 deaths, it is no different from buying Chinese stocks merely based on their financial reports. All fake numbers.
The actual number is likely in the 100k range.
Right now even the doctors ran out of masks and gloves and are working unprotected. I don't know how much longer they can last before they are down.
I have 3 relatives infected. One staying at home, and two who spent 6 days going to each hospital to try to get hospitalized. They were all told one thing: We don't have resources for you. Go home. They finally got hospitalized yesterday. Think about it. That's after they are diagnosed positive. They are walking on the streets for 6 days while spreading the virus everywhere, with no hospital taking them in.
There are thousands and thousands of such patients.
There are also dead bodies everywhere in all hospitals. They are dead on the floor and for hours, no one comes to pick the bodies up. When they do get picked up, they are immediately sent to the funeral to be burned, without any diagnose of whether they got infected by this virus or else. Therefore the 17 death is just a joke.
Lol what? How were they diagnosed BEFORE being hospitalized?
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Opens with a bombshell example:
Navin Seepaul is a 29-year-old single dad who makes $30,000 a year as a barber. He owns a $1-million house in Brampton, a sprawling suburb northwest of Toronto. Each month, the payments on his roughly $700,000 mortgage are $4,300. On top of that, he has $24,000 in credit card debt.
To help pay the bills – even just the monthly interest charges are staggering – he rents out his basement to three or four students, and two truck drivers rent bedrooms on his second floor. At any given time, the young father has six vehicles parked on his property.
What are the circumstances behind this example? Because no bank or federally regulated financial institution, not to mention credit union, will underwrite a $700k mortgage for a guy making $30k as a barber regardless if he's using it largely as a rental. And if $4,300 is his payment and assuming a 35-year amortization, his interest rate is 6.7% which is private lender territory.
Coronavirus
in General Discussion
Posted
If a major part of the rationale for a lockdown was its practicality, then I think that public health officials were very impractical in not sufficiently considering the second order effects from the lockdown.
Yes, emergency care was never stopped but how many people would really know that? Can you expect the vast majority to distinguish between what's considered an emergency and what's not? Can you expect the majority to properly weigh health risks and think rationally when everywhere they look they're reminded of COVID? I think the answer is a clear no given the data in the articles and I think it's a leap too far to assume that the majority of the populace will make rational decisions when the public health messaging on this topic has been ambiguous at best yet extremely black and white on lockdowns.