The problem with cyclicals in general is when to buy, and later, when to sell.
Do you buy XOM at $88 or wait for a real rout for it to get to 30,40, or 50, or less. i.e. when is the bottom of the cycle?
Then there is the obsolescence issue. In the last 100 years we have seen railways undergo permanent secular decline, and more recently pulp and paper. While I dont think oil is in a serious permanent decline I am inclined to put in the word: Yet. At a price the lowest cost, best capitalized producers will survive, there may be alot of pain along the way.
Uccmal,
I understand what you are saying. To stay on the safer side, I will wait for a much larger margin of safety.