james22

Every reliable poll of European newsrooms from Germany to the Netherlands show that climate change is a much more important topic for journalists than it is for ordinary people. https://www.newsweek.com/popular-uprising-against-elites-has-gone-global-opinion-1722653

Yet you were less picky (found more opportunities) before the market was off (more overvalued)?

Do you believe it coincidence you can't find extremely good opportunities when the market is off? When they should be more likely found than when the market is doing well?

Sorry, that was Lazurus'. But like him you know you should you try to be logical, yet still 'have a hunch' and agree with his disclaimer: Will be there another time in my life when I would be so confident that the $hit is about to hit the fan...?..I don't think so... With the possible exception of Buffett, I don't know how anyone can be confident in their market hunches. And the thing is, "ultra great investments" are rare. And they don't look like "really easy to understand, extremely attractive" bets at the time. But if 80/20, you're only talking about investing at the margins (where's your confidence?). That's not what Lazarus (50/50) is struggling with.

Why didn't you act in 2020 then (the Fed having liquidity)? Because you found some other reason not to. You've found your reason to not act now. And you'll undoubtedly find reason to not act in the future. What's the point of realizing you're a perma-bear pessimist about markets (and that it is a huge flaw) and then immediately disclaiming it? Climb the wall of worry.

Better investments than found in 2009? March 2020? If you didn't act then, why believe you'll act now?

You've got to get it through your head that confidence is risky.

There are always cross-currents. The Two Most Underappreciated Forces Driving Markets Today 1. Demographics 2. Flows https://awealthofcommonsense.com/2021/04/the-two-most-underappreciated-forces-driving-markets-today/ I assume the Dow 36,000 argument is at work as well. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dow_36,000

Want to bet on that? https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Simon–Ehrlich_wager

Nah. If you wish to improve the environment, you need economic growth (Kuznets curve). For economic growth, you need energy. Today, that means oil & gas. It's a bad thing to curtail that.

European Commission Declares Nuclear and Gas to be Green https://wattsupwiththat.com/2022/07/07/european-commission-declares-nuclear-and-gas-to-be-green/ Like dominoes.

Newly retired, I'd much prefer a 2 year popping of the Everything Bubble to a 10 year slow leak. I've cash to ride out the short-term, SRR would really hurt if it dragged on longer. A million Bogleheads suddenly cried out in terror.

Still this.

I believe we're probably past peak ESG. I'm bullish too (since the beginning of this thread) for all your listed reasons, I just believe the pivot back to oil will come sooner than you think.

What can't go on forever (the Green delusion), wont. ESG will matter less and less as it proves too costly.

It begins? NASA admits climate change occurs because of changes in Earth's solar orbit, not because of SUVs and fossil fuels https://www.sott.net/article/420049-NASA-admits-climate-change-occurs-because-of-changes-in-Earths-solar-orbit-not-because-of-SUVs-and-fossil-fuels

I keep coming back to this. Hard to believe we'll get off so easily.

Sure, I just think there are limits to even the current administration. Maybe wishful thinking, I admit. Progressives seem convinced approval ratings reflect only a communication failure or that they've not gone far enough.

Nah, I believe ESG is something the public pretends to care about only when they can afford to. The industry need only demonstrate it can deliver in way alternative sources cannot, ESG be damned.

Really great, thanks.

+1

90/10 CrossFit/boxing

Yeah, but: reflexivity?

You'd guess wrong.

When the crap hits the fan, people want return. https://jeffreycarter.substack.com/p/esg-has-a-comeuppance?s=w