james22

Following up: https://thelawdogfiles.com/2022/10/nordstream-ii-electric-instapundit.html

I like to think you're right, no_free_lunch. Because: no free lunch, Germany.

“So, LawDog,” I hear you say, “What do you think happened?” Honestly, I suspect someone in the Russian government pinged Gazprom, and said, “The EU is about to have a cold winter. make sure those pipelines sodding well work, so we can sell someone natural gas at massively increased prices.” So, Somebody In Charge started running checks — and came up with hydrate slurry in both pipelines. After the running in circles, hyperventilating, and shrieking of curse-words stopped, somebody started trying to remediate both lines. Of course they didn’t tell folks down stream — no Russian want to look weak, and besides, there’s been a nasty uptick in failed Russian oligarchs getting accidentally defenestrated — they just unilaterally tried to Fix Things. It’s methane hydrate. Trust me, if there’s a hydrate plug, there’s more than one. With both pipes having no movement for months, if not a year, there were a metric butt-ton of hydrate plugs, slurry, and rime in both pipelines. The Fixing of Things went bad. One went Paws Up, and they started trying to stop the other — but pressurisation (both ways) is a weeks-long process, and the second went bad, too. It happens. https://thelawdogfiles.com/2022/09/nordstream.html

Ok, the Nord pipeline incidents. Sigh. I shouldn’t do this, but … I call them “incidents” for a reason. I grew up in overseas oilfields. I try to, by training, observe everything from as objectively neutral a viewpoint as possible. In my experience when anything involving energy-industry hydrocarbons explodes … well, sabotage isn’t the first thing that comes to mind. And honestly, when it comes to a pipeline running natural gas under Russian (non)maintenance, an explosion means that it’s Tuesday. Or Friday. Or another day of the week ending in “y”. ... Am I saying that there is no way that these incidents could possibly be the result of deliberate direct action? No. That area is too full of idiots — HOWEVER: It’s hundreds of millions of cubic metres of extremely flammable — nay, explosive — gaseous hydrocarbons being transported by Russians, and subject to Russian maintenance. And I’m here to tell you — Russian maintenance under the current oligarchy system isn’t any better than it was under the Soviet system. It blew up. Until I see evidence of bad actions, I’m going to shrug and say, “Damn. Must have been a day ending in “y”. https://thelawdogfiles.com/2022/09/nordstream.html

Disappointingly little.

If history is any guide, Russia will again be fighting both their Ukrainian foes and the vodka bottle. https://www.politico.com/news/magazine/2022/09/28/putins-military-draft-is-unpopular-so-what-00059145

Hidden paragraph of Putin's decree allows 1 million Russians to be mobilised https://news.yahoo.com/hidden-paragraph-putins-decree-allows-115625603.html

Vladimir Putin’s decision to call up 300,000 men to fight in his invasion of Ukraine is hitting two of the battered Russian economy’s weak spots. The order takes about one in a hundred of the country’s active workers from their jobs to send to the front when record-low unemployment – combined with the exodus of Russians fleeing the country to avoid the mobilization – means there are few candidates to replace them. And it’s likely to batter Russians’ already-fragile finances, leaving some draftees’ families short of cash. https://news.yahoo.com/putin-mobilization-hits-russia-economy-095203471.html

Seriously greedy as well?

OXY below $60, should we assume BRK is buying again?

One can hope.

Untrained men don't pose much of a threat to anyone.

Never know. Putin may be strengthened as his troublesome ethnic minorities are fed to the meat grinder.

Russia is already crashing demographically, and the main cohort of this war is coming from the men who should be fathering children. “This is a potentially a country killer. Before I thought that this was Russia’s last war. Now I’m certain of it.” https://www.battleswarmblog.com/?p=52709

Everything Taleb.

Sure. Peter Zeihan on the Ramifications of Russian Imperial Decline https://www.battleswarmblog.com/?p=52632

“We haven’t built a major transmission line in this country in many years,” Robb told CNBC. “And it’s not because there aren’t good projects identified. It’s not because there aren’t investors ready to fund it, it is really because local siting boards don’t, and people don’t want them running through their backyard.” https://www.cnbc.com/2022/06/26/why-the-us-has-a-massive-power-line-problem.html

It's also the case that acting to extract now (while still valuable) would demonstrate a belief that the future lies in alternative energy.

Thomas Friedman! The most important factor for quickly expanding our exploitation of oil, gas, solar, wind, geothermal, hydro or nuclear energy is giving the companies that pursue them (and the banks that fund them) the regulatory certainty that if they invest billions, the government will help them to quickly build the transmission lines and pipelines to get their energy to market. Greens love solar panels but hate transmission lines. Good luck saving the planet with that approach. https://www.nytimes.com/2022/09/13/opinion/putin-ukraine-winter.html

Consider: If Russian President Vladimir Putin tired of attrition and decided to use tactical nuclear weapons, how would Russian behavior—a rapid withdrawal and even leaving key equipment behind—be different? The answer: It would not be. https://www.19fortyfive.com/2022/09/could-russias-sudden-ukraine-retreat-mean-a-tactical-nuclear-weapons-strike-is-coming/

I am telling you people that the situation in #Europe is much worse than many understand. We are essentially on the brink of another banking crisis, a collapse of our industrial base and households, and thus on the brink of the collapse of our economies. Short thread. We are also totally at the mercy of the authorities, and we have very little knowledge what they have planned. Will they be able to stop the onset of the banking crisis, yet again? I don’t know, but I am doubtful. In any case the speed of deterioration is massive now, and it's only a matter of time, when markets catch up. I am betting that we still have few weeks (months at max.) before "mayhem" truly begins. Take precautionary measures. Stock: 1. Cash. 2. Food. 3. Water. 4. Wood (if you have a stove). 5. Other necessities. No harm will come from preparation, if somehow miraculously we can avoid the onset of an outright economic collapse. You just have more cash (no meaningful interest in banks), food, water and wood.

Less so if one is retired.

"All investing is value investing."