Rabbitisrich
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Posts posted by Rabbitisrich
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Thanks for the intro, Txlaw.
Your volatility seems reasonable, although, as Oldye stated, much of the value is in the conversion option. And if Fairfax wanted to manage the duration of its portfolio, why would they accept common stock in lieu of cash?
The structure of the transaction--mandatory conversion, management discretion of payment method, and low interest rate--suggests that SandRidge had other financing options.
They raised capital at 8.88 a share or something like that. Fairfax effectively gets the same stock 5 years late at a net cost of 8 or less. SD is using the proceeds to buy an 800 million dollar field next to their existing projects.
If Fairfax buys SD now at $8.80 and the price in five years matches the conversion price, you have 4.2% annualized. That seems like a fair discount to the 6% after-tax return after adjusting for the loss of liquidity. I'm not saying this is a poor transaction; it just doesn't look substantially better or worse than the purchase of common stock. I think it's an interesting case study on private market deals.
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http://www.clevelandfed.org/research/commentary/2009/0909.cfm
The Cleveland Fed produced an interesting analysis of the different, and surprisingly similar, factors leading up to the U.S. real estate bubble.
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The Company may, at its option, pay dividends in cash, common stock or any combination thereof.
I'm not familiar with Sandridge, but if they have a good future and they didn't have a liquidity issue, then why not simply purchase the stock? Even if Fairfax liked the Permian Basin transaction, why couldn't they demand a higher interest rate?
Interesting purchase.
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Terrific, thanks.
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Thanks for the link Ericopoly.
Kawikaho, ugh, I should have read the article first.
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I tried the Wells Fargo brokerage, but cancelled the service due to slower fill times. More than once, Fidelity and TD Ameritrade accounts filled an order below my limit price, while WF failed to execute the order at all!
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Rabitt no restrictions at all on foreign ownership of real estate and if you insist on buying in Vancouver I will sell you mineThe temptations that Tiger tackles tops those that typically trouble. I can't imagine cheating on my girlfriend, but I also can't imagine Miranda Kerr whispering her room number into my ear.
About Canada, can non-citizens purchase a home? I'd like to buy a house in Vancouver or Montreal and rent it out for 9 month periods.
Can I get a quote on bona fide Canadian ice, too? I went house hunting in Vancouver a couple of years ago and I couldn't believe the prices then. However, I loved the city, and I wouldn't mind paying a bit.
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Thanks for the summary Packer16.
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The temptations that Tiger tackles tops those that typically trouble. I can't imagine cheating on my girlfriend, but I also can't imagine Miranda Kerr whispering her room number into my ear.
About Canada, can non-citizens purchase a home? I'd like to buy a house in Vancouver or Montreal and rent it out for 9 month periods.
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I learned to be satisfied with high returns achieved through analysis, and to forgo potentially higher returns brought about by market timing.
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NetNet, I love quotes of that sort. Value investing is an opportunistic sport, and we make money not only when everyone overestimates themselves but also when they overestimate each other and over reach. We should support Alice Schroeder and her value adding misinformation project.
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Maybe, but I haven't seen a big increase in unrated securities, nor have I seen a major company quote their Egan-Jones rating. In addition, despite the scoffing at the big three ratings, many lenders still include provisions for changes in ratings from the "major" ratings agencies.
You and Seth Klarman may prove correct in the future, but it's difficult for me to imagine that a high speed financial world (like the one we have, for now) will demand truly rigorous, issue-by-issue analysis. There's only so much trust to go around, and only so many gurus. For everyone else, it's just a lot easier to tell your clients that all your assets are highly rated.
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Good points, Ericopoly. The members of this board trust that Watsa and Co. will generate alpha from the float. Unfortunately, that's a story that takes more time to digest than underwriting strength simply because good investors produce more volatility than good underwriters.
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Kingsway then tried to ditch Lincoln General by "donating" the shares to a collection of non-profits. Of course, they neglected to pbtain the permission of their regulators.
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I just can't seem to forget the fact that they missed the ball on AIG. They had over a billion before AIG imploded.
Interesting picture:
AIG reported holdings in Davis NY Venture Fund
10/31/07 28,556,210 shares at $1,802,467,975
4/30/08 30,451,813 shares at $1,406,873,761
Doesn't this mean AIG owned the Davis fund, not the Davis fund owned AIG?
The Venture fund owned AIG. The global fund held $65B in assets as of July 31, so it's hard to imagine that Chris Davis personally dug through the 10-K notes. Plus, he probably knew Hank Greenberg personally, and he couldn't imagine that such a capable man could F up with a capital F. Another good investor, Wally Weitz, fell under a similar trap through long association with Angelo Mozilo.
It happens to the best.
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There going to be a shortage of qualified labor in the U.S starting this decade...Japan has very low unemployment and we're heading the same direction.
These "corrections" do wonders for efficiencies, production per working hour was rising at a 9% rate in the U.S last quarter...will probably be even higher this quarter. The question than is...will the increase in efficiency offset the loss in income...well if 95% of the people employed last year are still employed and on average they received a 2% raise the net loss of income is only 3% overall. If a 3% drop in income results in a 10% increase in delinquencies...does than a 3% gain U.S total incomes results in a 9% drop in delinquencies? (Hell No!)
Unemployment does not explain a 9% rise in delinquencies.
Even the productivity gains may be the result of short-term accounting froth. Businessweek has an interesting article about temporary bumps in gdp due to the deferral of R&D: http://www.businessweek.com/magazine/content/09_45/b4154034724383.htm
Measuring intangible investments such as business R&D and worker training isn't easy—which is one reason why government statisticians haven't yet done it. But including such expenditures could make a big difference in the way companies, investors, and others understand the economy. Let's do a back-of-the-envelope calculation. In the four quarters ended last June, business spending on tangible investments—equipment and structures—as reported by the BEA dropped by about 20%. If intangible investments had dropped at the same rate, it might have knocked an additional 1.5 percentage points off the -3.8% GDP growth rate. If intangibles fell by only 15%, that might have taken 1 percentage points off GDP growth. (These calculations require making heroic assumptions about price changes and other difficult-to-observe figures, so they should be treated as very rough estimates.)
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While the GAO did credit the SEC with producing statements that were "fairly stated in all material respects," it flagged "six significant deficiencies" for FY 2008 and 2009.
The six areas are:
• information security;
• financial reporting process;
• fund balance with Treasury;
• registrant deposits;
• budgetary resources;
• risk assessment and monitoring progress.
Those deficiencies don't seem to allow for a "fairly stated in all material respects" opinion.
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I read an opinion that banks are driving the yields down in an effort to window dress their 10-Ks.
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Watsa, the negative working capital market doesn't require growth due to the manufacture as ordered business model. Dell might make mistakes, but their business model shouldn't produce huge cost of goods sold to payables mismatches.
On the other hand, doesn't it appear as if Dell is trying to grow their business through conventional strategies like design, business services, etc? This Businessweek article, http://www.businessweek.com/magazine/content/09_43/b4152036025436.htm, suggests that Dell's market cap already reflects the low cost moat.
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UncommonProfits, does your data for historical delinquencies cover all delinquencies and foreclosures started? The 6.25% figure from TransUnion only covers 60 days and over.
Loss severity might distinguish the current period delinquency rate.
http://www.housingwire.com/2009/08/24/cure-rates-plunge-among-prime-rmbs-fitch-says/
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Parsad, the story of how aspartame came to be approved by the FDA is somewhat sketchy. However, it's such a widely used product that, even if it found to be harmful, there might not be asbestos-level consequences for Coke. It'll be interesting to see whether any industry gets taken down by the Bisphenol-A controversy.
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I'm one of the few on this board who really liked The Snowball. I wouldn't have been attracted to a book that focused on Warren's "methodology"--which I suspect is like Jeet Kune Do's "techniques"--because most of his investment career is a matter of public record.
If I didn't know anything about the author, I would have guessed that a female friend of Warren's wrote the book. Especially when talking about Susie Buffett, there is a kind of merciless judgement that I associate with one woman evaluating another.
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I don't know about envy, because many of the people complaining about Buffett on this thread have recently outperformed the Berkshire stock.
Buffett will occasionally do things that may seem hypocritical until you realise that he is perfectly okay with telling you what you should do, and then acting as your counterparty if you don't do it.
Case in point: Fannie Mae recently tried to sell tax credits at less than 80 cents on the dollar. Berkshire would have bid on those incredibly stupidly priced assets. Ethical? That's ambiguous. But it's not hypocritical for a rational businessman.
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If anything, you might be giving Warren too much respect in that you are holding his advice as parable. Keep in mind that he often speaks in layman's terms, which takes away from precision. Then you have to look through misunderstandings perpetuated by lazy reporting.
The WMD statement involves both problems. Buffett indulged in some hyperbole to emphasize the danger of derivatives for a broad audience. But he also explained the specific features of derivatives that he viewed as harmful. The media latched onto the hyperbole and never delved into the technical aspects of his argument, much to society's pity.
I've also heard Buffett characterized as a hypocrite for his support of taxes despite a consistent emphasis on tax efficiency. Rather than hypocrisy, I view it as a compromise similar to his willingness to purchase tobacco company preferreds. Where do you draw the line between being an exploiter of ignorance versus being prepared for opportunity? My feeling is that he fulfills his moral obligation by speaking out on issues, and that he should be free to take advantage of the rules as they stand.
Fairfax invests 200 million in SD preferred converts
in Fairfax Financial
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That's too optimistic, I think. The interest might simply be a hedge against company performance; i.e., if the stock doesn't move at all, then Fairfax pays 4.2% of compounded appreciation in exchange for 5 years of 6% interest.