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xtreeq

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Posts posted by xtreeq

    What the market is ignoring now...

    in General Discussion

    Posted

    I'm heavily skeptical Israel has the ability to strike Iran. Think about it, where would they strike? Irans nuclear facilities are spread throughout the country, and in some cases in difficult to reach locations. To do real damage, they'd need to carry out multiple airstrikes over hostile airspace far away from home soil, and I don't believe they can.

     

    As an Israeli I can tell you that there will be NO strike on Iran without US approval. One of the reasons is that we need US consent to use some of the hardware that would be needed for such a strike.

    What are you buying today?

    in General Discussion

    Posted

    Mostly watching the oily knives pouring down .... SD, LTS (now a whopping 16.2% yield!), AET.UN ...

     

    Managed to extracate myself this morning from ALSK above 2.50 ... whew. FTP still going down and I don't think it will stop anytime soon. OIBR down and hopefully will continue to do so so I can pick it up again :)

     

    Packer - which UPL did you purchase? Your OIBR excel is wonderful - thanks!

    WITH A LITTLE HELP FROM MY FRIENDS

    in General Discussion

    Posted

    Gio,

     

    If the 8 point plan fails, there is always Italian wine! I love a good Moscato d'Asti :)

     

    Seriously - if you can show her 50% of your Board enthusiasm and joie de vivre, you shouldn't have any problem!

     

    Also, if things are going well, go walking with her and have dessert at another place - psychologically she'll think you are already on your second date ;)

     

    Best of luck and do let us know how things went!

     

    p.s.

    I think the most important thing to do on the first date is to make her laugh and feel confident and secure so that when she later talks the date over with her best girlfriend (they always do :) ) she will be smiling to herself.

     

    That's when you know you get a second one.

    One of the Greatest Investment Opportunities...

    in General Discussion

    Posted

    Parsad - Is the reason you don't want to mention the name due to liquidity, or you simply don't like having your picks publicized?

     

    Could be both, couldn't it?  ;D  This time I'm not even going to respond to any future guesses at all.  You guys are seriously too good at this, and any clues I give, somehow you will figure it out.  I've learned my lesson once now already.  Cheers!

     

    We need another treasure hunt  ;)

    Getting rid of my cable

    in General Discussion

    Posted

    +1

     

    I got rid of cable and my TV about a decade ago. The only thing that made me want to watch TV in that period was the Tsunami in 2004 in the Indian Ocean.

     

    Nowadays, my computer screen is large enough that if there is something I wish to watch, I download it and watch at my leisure.

     

    If you have children it's even more important IMHO as TV exposes them to countless ads that promote a consumerist mindset, which is detrimental to their long term well-being (emotional as well as financial).

    what are you selling today?

    in General Discussion

    Posted

    muscleman,

     

    Allow me to add a 4th reason by way of recent experience - exiting a position due to a corporate event and/or loss of faith in management or the major shareholders.

     

    I bought preferred shares in Oi via the ADR (OIBR) in August thanks to Packer's sage advice and my own research leading me to believe that Zeinal Bava, the CEO, was indeed an excellent manager and that the company had excellent growth prospects. The stock proceeded to go up around 50% from my entry point in about a month, declared a reduced but still handsome dividend and I was happy to hold the investment for a few years to allow it to realize its full value

     

    Last week they announced they are doing a rights ofering which is 125% of the current MV of their equity PLUS they are combining with their parent Portugal Telecom by buying PT's assets for a lot more than book value and at a very bad EUR/BRL exchange rate. This all resulted in me being diluted around 50% of an FCF basis, but as I wrote at the time on the Oi thread, I decided to exit because do not want to partner with those out to fleece me.

     

    I was ready to sell once trading opened thinking that the shares must trade down BUT to my surprise the pre-market was positive, so I followed the shares upward through the day and sold towards the end of the day close to the daily high. After the unexplained euphoria of that day's trading the market finally realized how bad the deal was for Oi shareholders and the shares lost 30% in a few days.

     

    Congrats! You still made a handsome profit on that!

    I added that as the 4th reason, but I think it is similar to No.2.

    As the price drop more, maybe it will be a good time to reenter?

     

    Thanks muscleman :)

     

    I have no complaints about the profit! As for Oi, do look at the thread but after a good deal of analysis I think that unless the stock completely tanks (i.e. under a dollar when currently at around $1.70), there is not enough upside in it

    what are you selling today?

    in General Discussion

    Posted

    muscleman,

     

    Allow me to add a 4th reason by way of recent experience - exiting a position due to a corporate event and/or loss of faith in management or the major shareholders.

     

    I bought preferred shares in Oi via the ADR (OIBR) in August thanks to Packer's sage advice and my own research leading me to believe that Zeinal Bava, the CEO, was indeed an excellent manager and that the company had excellent growth prospects. The stock proceeded to go up around 50% from my entry point in about a month, declared a reduced but still handsome dividend and I was happy to hold the investment for a few years to allow it to realize its full value

     

    Last week they announced they are doing a rights ofering which is 125% of the current MV of their equity PLUS they are combining with their parent Portugal Telecom by buying PT's assets for a lot more than book value and at a very bad EUR/BRL exchange rate. This all resulted in me being diluted around 50% of an FCF basis, but as I wrote at the time on the Oi thread, I decided to exit because do not want to partner with those out to fleece me.

     

    I was ready to sell once trading opened thinking that the shares must trade down BUT to my surprise the pre-market was positive, so I followed the shares upward through the day and sold towards the end of the day close to the daily high. After the unexplained euphoria of that day's trading the market finally realized how bad the deal was for Oi shareholders and the shares lost 30% in a few days.

    Thoughts on the tech threads

    in General Discussion

    Posted

    ajc,

     

    I managed to read your double post ... so maybe I am a bit crazy, but I think you've opened up an important discussion so let me add my 2 cents

     

    My Jurisprudence professor taught me that laws are made when norms are no longer respected, and laws, my Torts professor taught me, always have holes in them. Therein lies a human problem unlikely to be solved anytime soon ... (and if it did, we'd have lots of unemployed lawyers!). What I guess I am trying to say is that in the absence of something superior (without limiting free speech) we need to be more vocal about our norms and about what we want to get out of the Corner in general and a thread in particular, so let me follow my own advice.

     

    I am personally here to learn and contribute (the little that I can). I assume I am wrong and have wonderful people on the Corner to thank not only for an education but for a profitable one (so far). If I see something I can correct or add, I bring it to the Corner's attention. I understand this is not everyone's goal and I respect that; I cherish everyone's rights as I do my own as I understand that absent this respect I too have no rights. I also realize sometimes the "heat of the battle" brings forth unexpected insights and learning. Perhaps the best way to go forward is for those fortunate enough to have an indepth understanding of technology or anything else to try and teach others humbly for pride cometh before the fall and you cannot force your views upon anyone in any case.

     

    In any case, let me second ajc and ask others to chime in - I'd like to know what you think!

    Paying cash for a house

    in General Discussion

    Posted

    I think most people are irrational about buying a house and that makes sense because most people do not view it as a rational decision. I can tell you with certainty that my DW does not :)

     

    However, I want to expand on Eric's line of thought. Basically, one would need extremely bad fortune to get into a position where one was unable to pay his mortgage:

     

    1. Job loss and inability to find any job for an extended period of time; concurrently with

    2. No cash on hand; concurrently with

    3. Portfolio is significantly down; concurrently with

    4. Housing is down and house cannot be sold for the value of the outstanding mortgage

     

    The chances of all of these things happening together is pretty small, especially when you consider that number 2 is really something you control and you can always sell off some of the portfolio to keep a roof over your head

     

    There are also several easy steps to minimize this:

     

    1. Don't buy more house than you need [really this is what most people ignore so they end up with McMansions and must devise novel ways of heating their pool ... sorry Eric, I could not resist ;) ];

    2. Keep part of your portfolio in cash + have 6 months' living expenses in cash (separately!) - this should ease the tension from problem number 1 and give time to sell the house

    3. Have more than one salary in the household, which will lower number 1 again

     

    As someone who has seen foreclosures from up close, what really gets 99% of people in trouble in the first place is overpaying and of those 99%, at least 90% could have bought less "house" ... so as the Romans said caveat emptor!

     

     

    Rigor of Wall St. Analyst Reports

    in General Discussion

    Posted

    I just passed L2, and I got over 70% on ethics on both levels, even though most retakers of L2 would swear that June 2013 ethics was very very difficult ... I take it seriously ... but if it gets to the point where investos (like people on the board) openly ridicule Charterholders  (see the hahaha response earlier in the thread) and have zero faith that the holder of the designation ACTUALLY upholds himself to a higher stndard (if the logic is weak then there is no reasonable support for the reccomendation and it should not be issued and the Carterholder should dissociate her/himself from it!), then I believe the CFAI is FAILING in its core mission ... it saddens me

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