rpadebet

I have thought about buying one share certificate of every stock I invest in so I can keep an album of sorts for posterity ;) Anyone know what is the process on IB?

I am just reading "the frackers", seems like this happened in 1980s and 1990s too after the gulf war. How are people so confident that this will turn so quickly this time around? If history is any guide, this can go much lower from here. Geopolitics seems to suggest supply is going to keep going up. I am not really sure if we are going to see firms in america default on their debt. IMO when push comes to shove, most banks and creditors are going to extend and pretend. Everyone knows this is cyclical, so why eat your losses now, when you can extend the maturities/lower coupons and wait for payments in future. Most shareholders though, might get severely hurt..

I am investing in stocks

BRK.B and AMNF

If today is the low, new position for me so my cost basis is very low. I think the business model is broken, growth will moderate but the stock is cheap, the Enron allegation is BS IMO, I am playing for a quick rebound, probably getting out between $140-160. Remind me of HLF. I got in for a 5% position after sitting out the last 3 months... I don't think the business model is broken, just slowed down ... Current Fraud thesis is BS Valuation is now attractive ( got my original cost basis back ) I think they will delever and buyback stock. This could again double in couple of years absent any regulatory hurdles

Isn't Radiant trading at 9x-10x 2016 EBITDA? Market cap plus existing options is about $220MM + $20MM preferred + $55MM in debt, and 2016 EBITDA of $32MM (midpoint of guidance). You are right. On yesterday's call Bohn Crain mentioned they can buy another 20mill EBITDA @5x. Assuming this happens using earnings +65mill of additional debt (which still keeps them near 2.5X Debt/EBITDA), you are looking at proforma 350mill EV at 50mill EBITDA approximately. Then you have cost/revenue synergies to consider + all the acquisition growth possible after 2016

Bought: 1) RLGT (sold off with other platform companies, but this one has little debt and is now trading at 7x 2016 EBITDA with huge growth +cost synergies possible in 2016. 2) LILAK (just keep averaging down as long as the market allows) 3) BABA (Keep adding in small increments) Sold (to fund above purchases) 1)FAST (sold at a 5% loss, but performed better than market in this downdraft, still like it,but a sell relative to the buys) 2)CTSH (long held position, sold at 100%+ gain, still like it, but a sell relative to the buys)

My intrinsic value is up a lot more than 20%. How much do you want it to be? I just have to decide on my time horizon or technically speaking, drag a few cells to the right in excel and then come up with a appropriate terminal value. Mr. Market has the price of my portfolio up 25%+ TTM and about 16% YTD. I am not on talking terms with him though at the moment... Also I think most of my loss making stocks are because of extensive R&D on my part. I intend to cut my R&D going forward. I think I should be able to add those back before I calculate my true cash eps. I should at least be allowed to capitalize it on my BS because I learnt a lot from them and it is truly a long term asset. We all know how knowledge compounds, so common, I shouldn't be expensing it.

Exactly opposite of what VRX does. VRX is in the business of buying "net nets" or "melting ice cubes" and squeezing as much as possible out of them This guy on the other hand is setting up something similar to BRK for drug companies :). long term compounder with venture capital like returns. oddball- I looked, but there is no font for sarcasm in here.

The most important thing I learnt from him is - there is no one thing. Each time I read one of his letters randomly, I learn something new. Whether it is a new insight or new philosophy or general approach to way he conducts his business, there is something new. He taught me investing at its core is best when it is kept simple He taught me the importance of rationality The concept of whether I would buy the whole business if I had the money, saved me so much money by helping me avoid unnecessary catalyst driven bets I thought I understood compounding but after seeing him do it in practice, it gave me a whole new perspective on just letting things compound. Finally, living a modest life, doing the thing you love with humility and self deprecating humor. He continues to teach us that through example. What better way to lead one's life. I agree with others that if you follow his ideas, it can change your life.

I dont know about an edge here....maybe I dont understand this stuff at all. But here is why I think he got lucky... there was panic but things could still go wrong for the shortist - what if the Fed,ECB and BOJ all announced some sort of QE or market intervention before US markets open? I don't know what edge he has to protect himself against such news risk when he is doing short term trading. But he seems to be lucky more than once....so who knows. He could be the one out of the 1000 who called a coin toss correctly 10 times in a row.

Aren't you concerned you are paying too much for Vol at these levels?

Whatever you think will happen, the opposite will happen - that's my prediction

There you go, Fed starting the walk back on hikes. I give them couple of months to get to QE4 from here.

Were any of the original outsiders related to businesses dependent so much on price of any one commodity? It is difficult to be an outsider in a commodity based business in my opinion, mainly because being an outsider means having a firm grip on the value of your business relative to the price market ascribes to it. When you don't and most likely can't know where the price of commodity, your business is dependent on, will go, how can you be sure of the businesses intrinsic value?

XPO has debt. Maybe RLGT. They are very small compared to size of market and have cash

So should we just assume that after 20 years of stupidity the gold miners have found the road to Damascus and they will be good stewards of shareholders money or is it a safer bet that they'll continue to go back to old way after a brief period of contrition? Everyone is free to do what they want with their money. I personally don't buy the new and improved gold miners story. If I'm wrong I may miss on some profits. I'd rather have that than piss away capital. Just 20 years? I think it requires a special gene to be gold digger !!

Yes, I think it's most likely scenario. In my opinion Risks come from "black swan" events like major world war, massive natural disaster, uncontrolled terrorism, super bug. Call it inflection point or reset. I don't think risks come from central bankers or politicians losing control. so I would if possible hedge the way taleb had suggested. Deep out of the money options. It's too expensive to continuously do it though. And btw if any of those events happen, our portfolios would be the last thing we would worry about. We would be happy to come out alive. Secular high inflation or secular deflation I don't think is likely.

Fits tesla more than anything. Maybe Netflix too...depends on how market is defined.

I thought you were going to say the gold miners make the shale drillers look like Charlie munger.

I can't believe people are talking gold again. Forget it. That trade is done. It is useless thinking about it. We are in a world now where debt is high. No one wants to deleverage as it kills the local economy. So they all print money. But they can't print all at the same time, that would cause inflation. They can't have that either. So they print some. Someone else across the globe feels the pain. Now those guys print some. Someone else feels the pain. So it has gone and will be going. There might never be inflection point. This is muddle through economics. Hopefully modest growth and some manageable inflation will bring about real deleveraging in 20-30 years. Lenders don't want to eat the loss, borrowers don't want to pay. End result is everyone pays for the losses little by little through below par growth and inflation. Dario calls it beautiful deleveraging. I call it stuck in the rut. Our investing careers will be defined by QEs. In the U.S. Households and corporates have delevered since 2009, but govt levered up, so we did modestly okay. For govt to delever someone else has to lever up, maybe it's Chinese govt turn now...this is a version of passing the hot potato around..

I don't believe there is any such conspiracy. They are not that smart. If they were they would have figured out how to prevent their ratings from going down the crapper the last 6 years of this massive bull market. I am going with.. they are dumb...

What happens in China market tonight will be entertaining. they cut the rate as requested/demanded by the market. Now if it drops a further 10%, then are we going to see china do QE? Will fed have the balls to raise rates in a month? or will they fold and go for QE4? We live in interesting times... The reason this could get ugly is the Fed can not do a uturn immediately towards QE4. First they are going to come out and say something professional sounding like "Hey, you know about that rate raise, we were just kidding - again!". They may even think that will make a difference to the market, but at that point they may be bringing the equivalent of a knife to a gunfight. In which case, they will be caught off-guard by how little they actually helped the market. Remember, these are my humble prognostications only...odds of them all turning out to be correct is very low. Yes very possible though...I really don't see how fed tries raising rates with all this happening around us. IMF has given some cover to these guys. You maybe right, they will have to dance their way to get to QE. If they are smart, which I think they are, atleast as much as the system allows them, Jacksonhole conference gives them a chance to introduce doubt about rate hikes. We will know this week.

Those are horrible. Don't do it. I know but you have any other ideas how I can be short but appear to be long? They wouldn't accept me shorting SPY puts last year. I had to explain to them I am actually going long by doing it.

What happens in China market tonight will be entertaining. they cut the rate as requested/demanded by the market. Now if it drops a further 10%, then are we going to see china do QE? Will fed have the balls to raise rates in a month? or will they fold and go for QE4? We live in interesting times...