Luke 532

Thanks.

Interesting, good catch. Do you remember what timestamp (or roughly 1/4 way through, 1/2 way, etc.) of the interview he previously said that about the litigation?

;D

Thanks. Here's the clip: https://video.foxbusiness.com/v/6059461043001/#sp=show-clips

By my data, today is the 41st time this has happened out of the 888 trading days since the start of 2016. Thanks for the info, so not rare as it happens ~5% of the time. I admittedly don't watch volume and price action each day.

The Treasury plan to reform FanFred is at the White House, has been for weeks. Will it see the light of day? Yes. but who gets to see it first? And will it be set in motion?

SCOOP: @USTreasury unlikely to advocate privatization as a viable option in @FannieMae @FreddieMac reform-sources; Treasury complaining lack of personnel w GSE skills slowing reform, timetable uncertain-sources more 345pm @FoxBusiness @LizClaman $FNMA $FMCC

FNMAS has traded more shares today than FNMA. Not sure I've seen that before, although I haven't compared historical volume. I post this as nothing more than an interesting observation.

The only quote in the entire article. Presidential priority. Updated 10 minutes ago. “The president earlier this year instructed the Department of Treasury to develop a comprehensive plan for bold reform,” White House spokesman Judd Deere said in an email statement. The National Economic Council, Treasury, Federal Housing Finance Agency and others “continue to work together on this presidential priority and anything to suggest otherwise is false,” Deere said.

https://www.marketwatch.com/story/fannie-freddie-overhaul-could-mean-windfall-for-preferred-stock-analyst-says-2019-07-12?mod=mw_share_twitter

Definitely brings into question whether his work was completed or not. He may have completed as much as he could, or perhaps he was fed up with the process. I also wouldn't completely discount the possibility that articles in the past two days discussing receivership and delay, delay, delay without one high-ranking source or even an anonymous quote were the work of those that have been so adamantly against the GSE's for many years.

You think the pref thesis is shot? I hear what you're saying regarding timing, hardincap. If this were trading much closer to par then timing would be a much bigger issue in terms of rate of return. But trading at half or less than half of par the favorable outcome would dwarf the market even if it took a very long time.

I want to be clear I was never taunting you. Others maybe were, but I wasn't. Your points are appreciated but they still have to do with pricing of a security and don't take into account the thesis of the underlying company. The stocks could be down 50% today, does that change the thesis? No. The stocks could be up 50% today, but again doesn't change the thesis. As a value investor the buy price and sell price matter to me, what happens in the interim is irrelevant. I think most value investors would tell you to sell when the stock is at or near intrinsic value. It's probably not discussed more because it seems like that would be the only logical place for someone in the value investing philosophy to sell... we wouldn't hold it past intrinsic value, and we wouldn't be tempted to sell it at a steep discount from intrinsic value.

luke, how do you explain the continued delays and reneging of previously committed timelines and positions (collins about-face)? I explain the continued delays by saying I was wrong. Wrong on the timing of this but I still haven't read anything that says the preferreds get hurt long-term. May take longer than I had hoped, but I don't think the thesis has changed.

Sure, but I am more disappointed on the report being delayed. It's likely not the actual IPO taking place that moves the stock, it's the plan to do so officially being announced (along with other details involving the capital raise, how to deal with the lawsuits, etc.). I'm not into trying to time things like you are, so there's no way I'd sell a single share given the price relative to par and what I believe is a very strong thesis for the preferred shares. And for what it's worth, I fully expect the share prices to fall based on people selling some or all of their position. It's easier to sell a position when it's small. I'd rather have the price temporarily fluctuate against me than sell a large position that would take a long time to reacquire and likely at higher prices given the illiquid nature of the preferreds.

More delays. Not entirely unexpected, but frustrating for sure... Perhaps most significantly, Treasury and FHFA could halt a policy that requires the companies to send nearly all their earnings to the Treasury. Though one person familiar with the matter cautioned that ending the so-called profit sweep is unlikely to happen this year. Signs that the administration is moving more slowly than anticipated are evident. The Treasury is yet to issue a long-awaited report on its plan for getting Fannie and Freddie out of the government’s grip, despite Calabria saying he hoped it would be released by the end of June. Now, agencies are aiming to get the document out within the next couple of months, according to people familiar with the matter. By the way, not sure if this matters, but Josh Rosner is calling B.S. on this article:

https://twitter.com/timpagliara/status/1149439305129111552?s=19 "Discovery production in Lamberth Court next week. Everyone cooperating but Treasury. Imagine that. Motion to compel will follow."

she's a lazy journalist and I dont have a subs. anything worthwhile? Not much in it. She gets quotes from Bright and Zandi if that gives you an idea of the gist of her article. Better link to entire article: https://www.twitlonger.com/show/n_1squmr4

Hannah Lang (American Banker) article out tonight... Edited for link to entire article: https://www.twitlonger.com/show/n_1squmr4

Hamish Hume article today in American Banker: https://www.americanbanker.com/opinion/recap-of-fannie-and-freddie-must-protect-shareholder-rights

Mostly. "Agreeing to end NWS by the Sept 30 dividend date" is nice to read.

Errr.... The image is so blurry that it is painful to read. I did a quick glance and it seems to be a rehash of what we already expect, right? Try from your computer and not your phone.

Attached...

Indeed they are great books. I recommend reading chapters 8 and 20 first, then reading the remainder of The Intelligent Investor.

It was probably me. It is one of two books I recommend... it and The Intelligent Investor. Glad you liked it! James Montier is great.