Luke 532

I think the plan will be more general and nonspecific than may would want, but there is one point that I expect to be made, and if it is I will be satisfied. I expect the plan to make clear that the GSEs will be returned to private ownership by means of retention of earnings and capital raises, market conditions permitting. right there, this would imply that the NWS must end. whether the plan specifically states this, and even goes on to discuss the 10% moment and how we have reached the 12% moment as phillips has said, I know not, but I would rather expect that these details will await the Calabria/mnuchin negotiation. any references to capital will be bromide like...safety etc rather than specific amounts and %s. there will likely be no reference to settling litigation, but again this would be implied. we know that the plan will call upon congress to permit additional guarantors and a limited fed guaranty. I expect the plan will not state that moving to private capital will await congressional action. I would hope the plan sets forth next steps which would refer to fhfa negotiation and regulatory action. the whole HUD angle is an unknown. how it affects the GSEs is hard to predict, but I expect the plan will call for HUD to improve operations and reduce risk...without saying how. I think cherzeca may very well be right. I wonder how the prefs would react the week following the plan release in terms of percentage of par under cherzeca's scenario.

Hannah Lang's article tonight in American Banker... https://www.americanbanker.com/list/will-gse-reform-get-some-clarity-from-long-awaited-blueprints?utm_medium=social&utm_content=socialflow&utm_campaign=amerbanker-tw&utm_source=twitter

beat me to it. but 100% margin is god's way of telling you to chill It's true. That's in the Bible. ;)

GSE bailout was really a stickup by Hindes https://www.americanbanker.com/opinion/gse-bailout-was-really-a-stickup

Yes, that's a few outlets now that have said shortly after Labor Day instead of September/October. Interesting that this is what ACG Analytics said two weeks ago (on August 13th)... #GSE #FHA #Presidential memo out post Labor Day. Not surprising DC roads vacant of traffic. Summer Ghost town. Q:Do you know how long after Labor Day? Days, weeks, maybe longer? Many thanks! A: ASAP Q: So around September 3rd, 4th, 5th... that week? Thanks. A: That’s what we are told in DC.

Todd Sullivan makes some great points about recent news starting at the 21:45 minute mark (Fitch, Sheila Bair, etc.): https://valueplays.podbean.com/e/16-aug-23-2019/

Plan will include details on ending the net worth sweep and a path out of conservatorship. #GSEs

https://seekingalpha.com/news/3493786-fannie-mae-adds-sheila-bair-board Fannie Mae (OTCQB:FNMA) names Sheila C. Bair, former chair of the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation, to its board. Bair had also service as assistant secretary for financial institutions at the U.S. Department of Treasury and senior vice president for government relations at the New York Stock Exchange. She will be serving on the board's compensation committee, nominating and corporate governance committee, and the risk policy and capital committee.

more on this NOW with @LizClaman as @USTreasury eyes Sept-Oct time frame to release long-awaited memo on reforming GSEs. @WhiteHouse will provide comments in coming days before Treasury finalizes $FNMA $FMCC Treasury had no comment on matter

Thank you. That would definitely be concerning if he were to leave prior to plan being implemented.

Where'd you hear that? Thanks in advance.

Information arbitrage, no. Cojones arbitrage, yes.

Any answers on NWS continuing vs ending, and the timing of such action, if any? Bedtime in DC. #NWS to end as part of new negotiated Amendment in 4th quarter Question on GSE's... are you hearing the plan being released Labor Day week is positive, negative, or neutral for preferred shareholders? #Presidentisl #Mortgage Memo has two parts. #FHA and #GSEa. They wll have answers to publicly disclosed questions based on what can Admin do alone and do they need Congress for. All positive. ACG video from earlier this year if you haven't seen it already: https://www.realvision.com/tv/shows/trade-ideas/videos/a-new-fannie-mae-play Is it just me or are these guys tweeting old news? They're confirming what we already expected via their contacts in DC, but what the market still doesn't think will happen. And ACG has contacts at FHFA:

Any answers on NWS continuing vs ending, and the timing of such action, if any? Bedtime in DC. #NWS to end as part of new negotiated Amendment in 4th quarter Question on GSE's... are you hearing the plan being released Labor Day week is positive, negative, or neutral for preferred shareholders? #Presidentisl #Mortgage Memo has two parts. #FHA and #GSEa. They wll have answers to publicly disclosed questions based on what can Admin do alone and do they need Congress for. All positive. ACG video from earlier this year if you haven't seen it already: https://www.realvision.com/tv/shows/trade-ideas/videos/a-new-fannie-mae-play

Came out today: https://www.fhfa.gov/mobile/Pages/public-affairs-detail.aspx?PageName=FHFA-Announces-Results-of-Fannie-and-Freddie-Dodd-Frank-Act-Stress-Tests-8-2019.aspx Possibly lower capital requirements than previously thought. Very interesting.

"The best and most legitimate quotes are those that offer no source or reference."

Fitch rating commentary regarding GSE reform plan (attached)...

https://www.housingwire.com/articles/49799-former-freddie-mac-ceo-donald-layton-trumps-treasury-says-gse-reform-has-mostly-happened In a 17-page paper titled “GSE Reform: None or Mostly Done?” Layton reveals a conversation he had a few months ago in a meeting with an unnamed senior official in the Department of the Treasury who told him: “GSE reform has already mostly happened.”

Good point. Thanks.

BI says the plan of the re-IPO is imminent, not the execution of said plan. I know there's plenty of hair on the execution (as there is with any IPO), but I was simply pointing out the release of the plan itself and the BI saying it will include an IPO. An IPO being part of the plan isn't news to anybody on this board (at least it shouldn't be), but BI saying it's imminent at this juncture bodes very well for prefs.

Bloomberg Intelligence thinks Treasury re-IPO plan is imminent (attached). We know the Treasury plan is imminent, but it's interesting to read Bloomberg Intelligence saying it being a re-IPO as imminent. I always figured that was the case that we'd have a re-IPO, but nice to hear a reputable source such as BI (not just Bloomberg, very different) say it's happening.

A few years ago I sent a number of free books to people that responded to the message below with a PM. I'm doing it again for a movie called The Case for Christ. Just send me a private message with your address and whether you prefer DVD or Blu-ray and I'll send you a free copy. Thanks. To anybody reading this post, I'd like to offer a free copy of the book mentioned in the filing, Mere Christianity. The late author, C.S. Lewis, was an atheist that investigated the merits of the claims of Jesus Christ. You might recognize Lewis' name because he also wrote The Lion, the Witch, and the Wardrobe (as part of The Chronicles of Narnia). Send me a private message if you'd like a free copy. Amazon link of the book: https://www.amazon.com/Christianity-Amplified-Introduction-Broadcast-Christian/dp/B000OESR7K/ref=sr_1_3?ie=UTF8&qid=1475256965&sr=8-3&keywords=mere+christianity

and Mnuchin has returned from effing china Kyle Bass is working with Steve Bannon on China, who is close to trump. May be nothing but there you go.

One major Treasury obstacle/hurdle nearly completed. Congress passed debt ceiling, Trump to sign.

Sure does.