DTEJD1997

Yes, people do believe that global warming is causing your severe cold weather: http://phys.org/news/2015-02-evidence-link-wavy-jet-stream.html Prolonged cold snaps on the East Coast, California drought and frozen mornings in the South all have something in common – the atmospheric jet stream which transports weather systems that's taken to meandering all over North America. Rutgers University climate scientist Jennifer Francis and colleagues link that wavy jet stream to a warming Arctic, where climate changes near the top of the world are happening faster than in Earth's middle latitudes. Color me skeptical. This is coming from academia? I don't trust them at all. What about all the emails at the English University that were released by Russian hackers? How about this?: http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-3055646/Did-exaggerated-records-make-global-warming-look-worse-Scientists-investigate-adjusted-temperatures-skewed-data.html These guys can't predict the weather more than a day in advance, yet they are confident about predictions 10,20,30+ years in the future? Some of the studies claim the temperature is going to rise by 2 degrees in 30 years and that is going to cause catastrophe? I remember back in the 70's we were facing a global cooling crisis. Then it was acid rain, then the rain forests were going away. By this time, we weren't supposed to have any rain forests left.. I don't buy it...

But no mention of how many liquor stores there are within sight of the road. We've got one in Montecito within sight of the road, it's appalling ;) And then there are all the restaurants that serve alcohol with a license, what is the neighborhood coming to. There are many drug users that congregate in these bars to consume their drug, and they openly consume their drug in front of children at restaurants. I think ALL drugs should be legalized. However, I don't think they are a good thing, MJ included. Eight Mile is hardly the only place where these things are. There are tons of them on Mack, Grand River, and other spots. As to liquor stores, they are too numerous to count or even notice. However, my old neighborhood has a lot of liquor stores being closed. Things are that bad! When the liquor stores are shutting down, you've got real problems!

Yes, that might work... One of the problems is that the people of Detroit are "broken". Stadiums, Super Bowls, trains to nowhere, and such are all just window dressing. You've got to fix the spirit, mind & culture of the people to really make a permanent change. Some of the largest growth industries in Detroit? Casinos and "dope" shops. On my way to work, going down "Eight Mile" there are at LEAST 16 medical marijuana shops within sight of the road. Most of them are located in Detroit, but not all. There are lots of strip clubs on Eight Mile also. Some of them are busy ALL the time. The Penthouse club is busy all the time. Sometimes I get out early, or have business to take care of. Tuesday at 2 PM, 30+ cars are in their lot. Thursday at 4 PM, there might be 40 cars... Who is going to the strip club in the middle of the day? Crazy. The casinos in Detroit are simply huge. They are much more profitable than most Vegas casinos. So we've got MJ shops, strip clubs & casinos. A great way to build a solid economy.... The Western part of Michigan is indeed different than Detroit. I loved the time I spent there in undergraduate. Very nice. Perhaps I can make it back there some day...

I did not purchase the property. As time has progressed, it is apparent that Michigan has even MORE problems than what I initially thought. Crime is terrible. Taxes are bad (income, property, gasoline, sales). Auto insurance is 6.5X what I was paying in Texas, and is the highest in the country. It is highly likely that gasoline tax will increase $.40/gallon over the next 3 years resulting in the 2nd costliest gas in America. Most public skewls are a joke... The demographics are terrible. Winter is silly/brutal. People still believe/think of global warming? It was SNOWING during the tigers game on April 23rd. And to top it off, I missed getting killed by 5 minutes the other day. A truck plowed into the lobby of a business that I had been in 8 minutes earlier. One of the wildest things I've ever seen! I am seriously considering leaving the state at the end of summer/fall. Time for me to move!

Hey all: In regards to Clayton, I don't think there is a problem with sub-prime financing per se...it is a problem with the unethical "moves" that Clayton seems to be engaging in. Problem #1 is the substantial "bait & switch". You are quoted a 7% interest rate, and then at closing it is 12%. That is simply no good. Problem # 2 is the egging consumers on by having them prep a site for the home & then jacking up the rates/price. Of course, the consumers should get the loan FIRST before doing prep work...but these are not exactly sophisticated consumers. These articles seem pretty damning, that is for sure... What about the "dirty" stuff that Berkshire has done in "for profit" education? Who is surprised by Warren saying one thing and then doing another?

Matjone: Yes, it is quite insane...The cost of insurance for slightly less coverage in MI is about 6.5X what I was paying in TX. Mind you, I have a PERFECT driving record, no accidents, no points, no DUI's, nothing... I also don't live in Detroit, but I could walk to the city limit if I had some time & were so inclined... When I last lived in Detroit in the late 80's you simply could NOT get insurance for some high end luxury cars & sports cars. Insurance on mid-range sports cars like Corvettes was likely to exceed your monthly note (if you financed the car). I asked some of the people I work with how they deal with insurance...they have their cars registered in other states. They have cars registered with their elderly parents. I strongly suspect that some of them drive without insurance. I work with attorneys. I can't imagine what "regular" people do. Insurance goes down the farther you get from the city of Detroit. I've heard estimates that over 50% of people in Detroit do not have valid drivers licenses and insurance on their vehicles. So you have a HUGE pool of uninsured motorists driving around not paying insurance, not paying for registration, not paying for licenses. That drives up the cost of insurance. The higher insurance goes, the more drivers go without. It quickly becomes a negative feedback loop. Don't even get me started on the condition of the roads and high taxes we pay for them. The Detroit area EASILY has the worst roads I've EVER seen. It is a real problem as some roads are almost impassible and there is lots of damage to vehicles (blown tires, damaged rims, alignment, shocks, etc). Michigan has a lot of problems...

From what I understand from your post the situation is quite bad over in MI. I can relate as we have a pretty crappy car insurance in Ontario. But how exactly would Google moving into auto brokerage do you think would lower premiums? What you describe sounds more like an underwriting or costs issue. Yes, Michigan has many problems, especially relating to insurance. I worry about it becoming a "failed state". As to insurance, more competitors should bring about lower prices. Also, Google has TONS of cash and they are an internet company. Perhaps they will do something stupid like underwriting insurance at a loss to get market share and name recognition. Internet companies don't always do rational things. Google also has some political heft. Perhaps they can throw their weight around to get some things fixed?

Hey all: Google moving into auto insurance in MI would be a good thing! The state of MI is breaking down in so many ways...Auto insurance is one of them. I went to buy a low end SUV. Negotiated the deal, and was set to sign & pick up the next AM. JUST HAD TO GET INSURANCE. I have a perfect driving record. I am in my 40's. I DO NOT LIVE IN DETROIT! I live near it though... Insurance was over $400/month. That was with a $500 deductible. I thought it was a mis-quote. The insurance agent explained it was not. If I had tickets, OR lived in Detroit, insurance would be substantially more. I went to several other agencies, but the lowest was $380/month. In the end, I did not buy a new vehicle. No wonder a lot of people in Detroit Michigan can't afford to drive. Auto insurance is simply too much.

Hey all: Over time, dividends can help produce 100 baggers. It depends on the time frame too. National Beverage (FIZZ) has been over 100x in the last 25 years. Dividends were a good part of that. If you bought Apple computer back in the late 90's, dividends are starting to become a huge component of it's return. A family member bought 400 AAPL shares back in the late 90's, just after NeXT was bought & Jobs came back. They now have just over 11,000 shares. Every QUARTER, they get back their initial investment in the form of dividends. I am sure there are other examples of stocks that have grown dividends tremendously over 15-20 years...

Oh my...so many choices! I would suggest a great way to look/screen for these companies is to look for companies with very low P/S ratios. You've got to have sales in order to increase margins and get net earnings... Another area that has potential is the restaurant industry. Another sector is casino/gaming. I would suggest that "Full House Resorts" (FLL) is a candidate. The "slow witted" CEO was recently forced out and new management brought in. There is TREMENDOUS operating leverage here. If some of it can be converted to net earnings, this stock could go many fold. Another candidate in the sector is "Dover Downs" (DDE). Lots of operating leverage. They have been making some progress. Probably a better bet than FLL. I am sure that there are many others. Interested to hear other's candidates!

WHCA, Williston Holdings. This is the successor to CASA.

Yes, MND has moved a bit over the past month or so... However, over the past twelve months, there have been several opportunities to sell it over $1/share and buy it back at $.80 (or less). If you can get MND near it's 52 week low, you are most likely at a good entry point. These guys are very good operators and it makes almost every check list. Good, honest management. Good operations/mines. Solid balance sheet. Return of capital in the form of dividends. Management runs the company for the benefit of shareholders. They understand finance & have a very track record. One of the best I would argue... Hope they keep it up!

I have several investments in gold miners...also copper & silver & iron. This is a difficult industry for sure.... I try and focus on miners with very solid balance sheets, profitable operations, AND PAY A DIVIDEND! Most mining companies have a bad habit of continually putting money back into the business. You've got to be able to pull some out, otherwise when the mine plays out, where is your investment? Some of the names I've been working with are; Mandalay Resources (MNDJF), and Caledonia Mining (CALVF). Caledonia is interesting, as they pay a huge dividend and have good potential to significantly increase production...but it has some issues. Mandalay is very, very well run. I sleep well at night with these guys. I'll be looking to put some more $ to work with them. Another interesting one is Rambler Metals (RAB.v).

the best shareholder meeting I've attended was at CASA "Mexican Restaurants". It was held at a large conference room table... I got an invitation to lunch by the CEO. I also got a very high end bottle of tequila that was given to the company as a sample by a liquor sales rep. Nice meeting!

My biggest regret in life was going to law school. Most graduates of lower tier law schools are unemployed OR underemployed. The schools are a scam. They put out salary & employment figures that are absolutely false. I work with dozens of younger attorneys. The stories they tell would send a chill up your spine. Some of them took over a year to get a job. Some of them worked for $12/hour. Some had terrible work conditions. Some had combinations of all the above... The industry is broken...When you factor in debt, most attorneys will be "working poor" all their lives. Unfortunately, this is starting to spread to other areas of higher education. People are graduating with such high levels of debt, they will never be able to pay it off.... It is a as simple as this...don't borrow more than a nominal amount ($20k) for an education.

Hey all: Just an update on this situation... I wish I had better news... This young attorney was not able to make a go of it. She is facing eviction as she has not been able to make enough money to even pay her rent. She is in the process of moving back in with her parents. She has profoundly bad money management skills and also a very poor business sense. Some people are just not cut out to run their own business.

At the time Pier 1 was trading at $.11/share, wasn't it losing money and in a dire situation? I think the CEO was replaced and a lot of units/sold closed? A great bargain, no doubt....but at the time it was trading for $.11/share, there was tremendous doubt of it being able to survive. In contrast, "Mexican Restaurants" (CASA) had been making money for several quarters and had also cut their debt level over the prior years by a tremendous amount. They were making about $.22/share in net earnings per share. I bought shares around $.45/share, and the stock went down to about $.21/share for a few days. Two years later I sold most of my position at just over $2/share. They got bought out shortly thereafter at $4/share. The crazy thing was that it was publicly disclosed that they had paid down debt and were earning money. The market didn't care...it was selling at such low P/E's (1-2). Another situation was Awilco drilling. It was quite obvious that they were making money, and were soon to make a LOT more money (1 or 2 quarters away). Further, management stated that they would pay out a majority of the cash flow in dividends. You could have bought just about all you wanted around $14/share. Two months later, they were paying a dividend of $1/share per quarter. After declaration of the 1st dividend, Awilco rocketed up to $15/share....still could have bought all you wanted...They are currently paying $1.15/quarter. P/E is under 5. They don't have much debt either... Another example has been Deswell Industries (DSWL). Several times they have traded as a "net-net", selling well below cash holdings. They have no debt, inventory, machinery, real-estate, etc. At the times they've traded below $2/share, you would have collected a dividend greater than 10%. Surely there are other examples out there, where the stock is CURRENTLY a great bargain....just that the market is not paying attention.

The restaurant worked out very well for me...but I was foolish and sold too early. I made about 5X return in a little over 2 years. I would have made a LOT more if I held for just 3 months longer as they got bought out. I am still in the 2nd position mentioned. I was up well over 100% in just over a year, but now I am only up about 80% in just over a year. So both worked well for me.

Hey all: I'm interested in the lowest or craziest valuations you've seen on US listed stocks. I would also limit the time frame to something like the last 30 years or so. I know there were some real bargains back in the 30's! This is stuff that you've either bought or very seriously considered buying. Here are some examples I've owned at various times: A). A restaurant stock that was briefly trading for about a 1x P/E and well less than 1x EV/EBIDTA. B). A foreign company listed in the US that was trading for a 3X forward P/E and a 30% dividend yield. C). Another foreign listed US company trading for SIGNIFICANTLY less than cash on the balance sheet, huge discount to book and a slightly higher than 10% yield. I've seen some wild stuff over the years. Interested in what others have come across.

Well, I would suggest the cost of capital includes the cost to get the license. You can't be an attorney without the license. To practice law, that is well over $100k these days. I know some attorneys with $200k+ in debt. Thus, the debt & time & energy required to get the license make it such a poor profession for most people. Yes, I am a licensed attorney, I have many in my family, and I work with a bunch of attorneys in my 9 to 5.

I can assure you that need a little more than that to be an attorney in the USA. 1). You need a 4 year degree 2). you need to take the LSAT 3). You need a high enough score to get into a law school 4). you need to make it through law school (3-4 years) 5). you need to make ti through the character & fitness examination to sit for a state bar 6). you need to pass a state bar Each of these steps a certain percentage of people drop or get knocked out. IF YOU CAN MAKE IT through all 6 steps, the REAL CHALLENGE begins. Now that you are licensed to practice law, you've got to monetize that. The best way to do that is to be hired by a "big law" firm. If you went to the top 10-15 skools, you've got a decent shot at that. If you went to the next 40 or so lower ranked skools, you've got a shot IF you are in the top 10% or so of the class. Barring that, you've got to have STRONG family connections to a law firm. Barring that, you've got to have some real specialty. If you don't, there is almost no shot at making a starting salary that would justify the time & expense of a law degree. If you graduate from the next 150 or skools, you've got almost no shot at a high starting salary. Some of the lower ranked law skools have un & underemployment figures of 50%. Some of them have single digit percentages of graduates making good starting salaries. Thus, the number of lawsuits against these skools by disgruntled graduates. A young attorney who took on student loans and didn't graduate from a top ranked skool OR have some very unusual specialty is most assuredly going to be a member of the working poor. Going to law skool these days is not a good way to get ahead or even make a living.

I would add a business that needs no or few employees. Businesses with employees adds headache, complexity, costs. I know two coin laundromat owners. One does very well. He bought his laundromat "used" and made some improvements to it. He is also very mechanically inclined and can do a lot of the repairs and improvements himself. The other owner does not do so well. He built his brand new, according to his plans. He never owned one before. His major problem is that he built it too small and does not get enough business/scale. He also put in some self storage units. I think it would have been better to skip the storage units and use the space for more washers/dryers. A vending machine route is also a good option. I know an owner of one of those that does pretty well. He claims his best locations are retirement homes. At retirement homes the residents use the machines, along with the workers AND visitors. He says car dealerships are also good locations. A bad location? Schools! Too many restrictions on product and too many restrictions on refilling/servicing. A lot of vending machines are high tech and web enabled. They can take credit cards. The owner can check inventory levels remotely and can also enable dynamic pricing. So those are my suggestions...

There isn't a finite amount of stuff to do. It isn't as if you can say, OK now we have these jobs filled that is it, there is nothing left. Human wants are infinite, thus there will always be more to do. That isn't to say that someone who works 25 years in a factory and loses his job to automation won't be in trouble. At a certain age learning new skills is difficult. And who wants to start over at the bottom in a new industry late in life? Those people will likely remain unemployed, but the next generation will simply learn different skills. This is capitalism's creative destruction and there are always people hurt in the shuffle. It isn't a new phenomenon. There is always change going on...I work in an industry that is likely to have 85% less workers in about 5 years due to software improvements/learning (document review). What is interesting is the people I work with. Most of them are in their very late 20's and early 30's. Most of them still live at home. Most of them are saddled with $100k+ in student loan debt. A significant percentage have $200k+. They all have graduate degrees and are all professionally licensed attorneys. I have a hard time figuring out a good outcome for these people...They make enough to live, and perhaps to pay interest on the loans...but not enough to make a dent vs. the balance due. If these people stay in the legal profession, they simply can't make enough to pay their loans. These people are going to be a "lost generation". The other problem is that it is very rare to get 2,000 hours of work in a year. A more realistic assumption would be around 1,500 hours. This is because we work on a project basis. When the project is over, there is no more need for workers, and you get "benched". There are frequently multiple projects going at the same time, but there are times when nothing is going on (right now). Of course, the better you are, the more work you get. However, only maybe the top 5% are employed 2,000 hours a year. Some of these people went to highly ranked schools too. I work with a Georgetown graduate, Duke, Vanderbilt, University of Michigan...and others. The document review industry employs a lot of people now, but automation & improvements will eliminate a lot of those jobs in a few years. This will add to labor displacement. There is also a problem with off-shoring legal work to India. The ABA has said as long as it is supervised by an a licensed American attorney and the locals are locally licensed, it is OK. Thus, the legal industry has lost a lot of jobs, and it will continue into the future. How many other industries are like this?

Patmo: Not to pick on you, but how do you figure there is a margin of safety in ESI & FPE? They essentially have one customer, the federal government. If they cut of student loans, OR make substantially more onerous to disburse the money, the business model is finished. You also have the chance of criminality. The first example of criminal problems is at COCO. So, if there is a "doomsday" scenario, the companies are kaput, and management is off to jail. In a "very bad" to "bad" scenario, it is likely the business is done OR drastically changed & smaller than it currently is. In any scenario, I see a LOT of change coming to the industry. Education (both "for profit" & non-profit) is at a crisis point and will be changing going forward. Don't be lulled into a false sense of security by trailing financial numbers. Going forward, those numbers are going to change drastically. The change won't be for the better I suspect...

I have to agree with this... The "for profit" sector has been getting away with stuff for WAY too long. They aren't doing anybody any favors. The results for a HUGE percentage of their students is life ruining/altering debt with little to no chance of job prospects. If these "skools" are so good, why does the government have to step in and loan the money? Why doesn't the skool just loan it's own money? They have a great product, great outcomes for their students, and rosy future prospects! RIGHT?