jhcap

I did research in the biotech field for eight years and I thought my experience would give me an edge in investing in the sector. While I had a few successes where I doubled or tripled my money, I also had a number of failures where I lost the majority of my investment. I came to two conclusions that have convinced me to stay away from biotech. 1) Phase 1 and 2 trials are generally too small to be statistically accurate. Many times drug trials show great promise in the first two phases only to fail once a larger population is tested. 2) The FDA is completely unpredictable and sometimes makes decisions that are contrary to the scientific evidence, probably for political reasons. I would still consider investing in a biotech company, but only from a value approach, and not by betting on a new drug or technology.

Burry has filed a company called Scion Value G7, L.P. I wonder if the G7 refers to a sovereign debt trade? So far he has not made any 13F filings, so it is hard to tell what he might be investing in.

Another take over announced tonight. Pacific Rubiales is buying Petrominerales: http://finance.yahoo.com/news/petrominerales-announces-acquisition-pacific-rubiales-001038175.html This just after the Novus and Trioil deals. It seams interest and activity in Canadian oil companies is picking up, perhaps because other markets are fairly priced and this is one of the few places value can be found. I wonder who is next? Long NVS, PWE, LTS, BXE and LRE. Considering positions in MQL and CDH.

It will be interesting to see if he has to file with the SEC. I would love to follow his investments. If he is taking outside investor's money I have no doubt that his AUM would exceed the limit for reporting to the SEC. If he is only using Scion as a family office, he may not have to report.