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Drokos

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Everything posted by Drokos

  1. My only knock on Greg is his BRK holdings (or lack there of), which is a big issue to me. $16m a year cash salary but his BRK holdings are less than $3m??? Ajit has $100m+ of BRK. Is he really going to protect the business as much as someone with 98% of their net worth in BRK? I know he owns (or owned) a stake a BHE but it doesn't give me much comfort to have a leader that has skin in only one subsidiary. Hopefully I am missing something.
  2. Couldn't agree more. Turning it off after March 10th after buying shares at $226 in January is bizarre. BRK is in worse share than we think with the pandemic if he was worried about stockpiling the <$1 billion he would have spent in late March if he even just maintained the embarrassingly slow pace of buybacks from Q4/Jan-Feb. Very concerning.
  3. I thought this was a pretty low quality piece for WSJ to publish. Good luck trying to bribe 330+ different people. How would that even work, you only get paid if all 330 other people go along and it plays out perfectly? Players would have to assume someone else is going to screw up so there is no reason to blow your one lifetime opportunity to play in the big dance when chances are you wont even get paid anyways. Or you'd have to pay out before hand and take on the risk that someone doesn't play along and you don't win any money? Not to mention you'd realistically need to pay bench players and coaches too, by then you're looking at $600m+ in payouts. After taxes your winnings wont even cover your expenses. If I were Warren, I would welcome this idiot trying to implement his 'genius' idea.
  4. Anyone using IB know the process for a US account holder to buy a Canadian stock? Do I need to first do a forex transaction swapping the necessary amount of USD for CAD and then purchase the stock? Is is a simple process, or do I need to sign up for something special to get forex trading? Thanks in advance.
  5. I'm guessing this is via a reverse merger? I know of a company whom many investors love on this board that did it for $12k. If you're interested in doing this I can get you in contact with the Director who orchestrated the reverse merger. Oddball, can you provide any more details on this? I am not serious enough to do it, but I am curious and I think many others are too.
  6. It does make me question Ted's judgement, especially so recent after the Sokol incident. I think he should be going out of his way to avoid any actions that can even be seen as potentially unethical. Why would he buy DVA for his kids and even have the perception of front-running? Why not just buy BRK? He's got plenty of money, he doesn't need to chase extra pennies at the expense of reputation.
  7. I agree with Pat, I think it is fine as an owner-operated business, you can work almost all the time and make $100k+. However, if you're trying to be passive owner and hire a manager/employees, you'll probably be be looking at small margins. And that's before we start factoring in the headwinds...declining tobacco volumes, increased MPG efficiency leads to less frequent stops at the gas station, TSLA, etc.... I'm sure it can still be a great investment if you get it at a bargian price, but I'd prefer to own a business with better long-term prospects.
  8. When is the last Chicago meeting, and is it too late for non-investors to sign up? I wasn't able to find any information online.
  9. I agree, the Wide Moat ETF is a quality product for a passive investor, ticker is MOAT. I think the ticker you mentioned is the ETN that was launched first, but they have now launched an ETF, which is a better product for investors because it has a lower fee and no credit risk from the company that issues the note.
  10. I didn't mean they are necessarily locked into Davita, but they will be a dialysis customer for life until they get a kidney transplant. The ultimate repeat customer business. Vacation issue is one of the reasons why it makes sense to a have a duopoly. If I am a DVA/FMS user and I go on vacation or travel I am more comfortable going to a branch of the same company rather than trying to find a mom and pop no name dialysis clinic. I think it is too easy to see a situation like sequestration where there could be 1-5% across the board medicare reimbursement cut that hits dialysis. If it was more reliant on commercial insurance or self pay I would agree that it is a wonderful business, however with the risk of Medicare cuts I am not so convinced.
  11. I haven't looked into the name for a few years, but here is my quick take. The thesis seems simple: 1) Customer is trapped, once you start starting using dialysis you're going to need it for life or until you get a new kidney 2) Duopoly market - DVA and FMS dominate the market (at least in the US) - scale advantages make it unlikely for a new entrant to come in and undercut you on price. 3) Favorable demographic and lifestyle trends should provide a long-term tailwind However, the biggest concern and the reason I would never invest in it is that you are reliant on the government. something like 60-70% of revenue is from Medicare. You are making the (IMO risky) assumption that Medicare doesnt decide to cut reimbursement rates. IMO that risk is too great. Also, with most healthcare fee for services, it is ripe for fraud. Over prescribing EPO or what not.
  12. Cubs fan, That's true. Although I do believe Valeant bought back some shares from ValueAct in early 2011 somewhere around $40 a share. Looks like ValueAct regretted that and bought some more in 2012.
  13. No, I think there is no chance of a takeover now. I am hesitant to put on a full position now, because it seems some people are (IMO foolishly) still expecting a take over. The CEO left Valeant on good terms in late 2012 and said he was leaving because he always wanted to be a CEO. He told Valeant's Pearson he would work for him for 3-5 years helping to build Valeant, then he will move on and build his own legacy somewhere as a CEO. Since ENDP's CEO resigned a few months back there have been rumors the company was being shopped around and large shareholders were pushing for a sale, it probably was, but IMO De Silva(the new ENDP CEO) would only take the job if the board was not looking to sell the firm. He is a turnaround specialist, wants to build his own legacy, and these Valeant guys are looking for multibaggers, not to join the firm and then sell it for a 10% premium after a month on the job. I dont think he was taking this job to make a quick buck, he had something like $30-40m of Valeant stock and I'm sure would have made much more by staying.
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