philassor

greenwald: "It looked to us like an oil play. He has a history of making bad oil play decisions. And that was at $75/share, we thought there were better oil plays. At $100/share we think he has lost his mind." How about Petrochina, was that fast 10 bagger a bad oil play decision? I think Greenwald is losing HIS mind, or maybe looking for a little publicity perhaps... Anyway we are used to the periodic blasphem on Buffett; I would begin to wonder if there were none. Also, this was not exactly an impulse buy; he'd been accumulating shares for a while, and this is center from his circle of competence book when he was analysing railroads for Ben.

Well take a look at the engouement meter (enthusiasm) and you'll get your first hints: things like developing markets, bric countries, gold, precious metals, commodities could very well be candidates.

Lowenstein's Buffett (the making of an american capitalist) is it. I have all kind of reservations about this woman Alice Schroeder; although all material offers some value. It is very likely that if Buffett had to choose a biographer again, he would pick someone else; not because schroeder is trying to gain publicity (which she is), but it looks like her judgement is often subpar to put it mildly.

Peter, you seem to have a good understanding of the company. I have not dug into the financials deeply but it appears that wtm is sellling at a discount of maybe 30% of a conservative estimate of its intrinsic value. Do you share that view and do you think that its discount is due perhaps to what cialdini calls "pluralistic ignorance"?

well we know for sure he bought 277 M of wfc. As to the balance of 1.9 b, I would guess some more bdx among others.

If you look at the financial figures posted yesterday evening, it appears that LUK is operating on rocket fuel: as I mentioned somewhere else, its book value increased by 58% ytd. This fast growing company historically traded at a bv of 1.8 and is today at less than 1.3. Considering the demonstrated skills of the jockeys and in spite of last year's dismal results, I would think the stock is undervalued. Of course I do own some and I do have a bias.

1.5 x bv < conservative intrinsic value < 1.7 x bv so a range of 122 k to 138 K per A share is a conservative appraisal. Actual intrinsic is probably north of 150, particularly given the idle funds pouring into higher yielding BNI (the elephant catch) and despite wholly owned slow down.

Speaking of rising book values; it appears that Leucadia 's went up 58% for the year so far.

plus float increased by 4 b. Not bad. :D

The 70 companies he purchased ( Add BNI to the collection) are not exactly short term trading. Neither are the majority of his heavy stock holdings (KO, AXP,WFC etc...) When it comes to a dollar weighted observation, his investments are almost purely long term. As to Goldman, he had an opportunity to offer capital for high compensation at a low risk at the peak of panick. It was plainly a great opportunity.

http://www.cnbc.com/id/19206666/site/14081545/

Looks like these top notch banks are moving where they belong slowly but surely. http://www.reuters.com/article/marketsNews/idCNN2144506820091021?rpc=44 ;D

let's see.... a hypermotivated manager like no other, an army of engineers for less than 1000 $ a month, low cost producer, battery patents, a substantial outlet and conduit in Berk (via mid american), promising new generation storage for utilities, a heads up on hybrid; oh I forgot;1 billion patriotic chinese customers in the background... Could that spell into lollapalooza? it certainly looks like it so far. competitive advantage can take many combining forms... This being said there is certainly no margin of safety at today's price.

HAHA Thats great!! Sign me up for that team also Eric. ;D It is wonderful to see ideology victims foam at the mouth and kick and yell in frustration. Just for that the whole exercise is priceless. I too am having a wonderful time.

thanks for the link, I had missed this good interview.

I would also argue that they are a bit undervalued based on: - Price to Book of 1.6 versus 1.8 (5 year average) - July boost in stocks not taken into account in book. - Quality of the Jockeys - Vulture domain they operating on (and nowdays the pickings are plenty) - Rather pessimistic sentiment regarding the stock - and as mentionned they are not issuing new stock; a sign of not being considered overpriced by mgt. I would not be surprised if they outperform in the coming few years.

thank for the heads up.

book value up 37% ytd. http://yahoo.brand.edgar-online.com/displayfilinginfo.aspx?FilingID=6737084-914-260022&type=sect&dcn=0000950123-09-031774 cheers

book value increased 15 % during Q2 and by 4% ytd. July boost in equity value obviously not accounted for. Stock still trading cheap at today's price. :)

plus many other factors; such as people trying to inflate themselves a little by puting down an icon as if they were worthy savy judges. or also a lot of investors cannot accept well the fact that the king of succesful capitalism happens to be a democrat who is pro population control, and believes in fair taxes etc... etc... There are many reasons for those little basphems.

it is my best performing stock by far this year (bought at 16 after missing buying at 10). Unfortunately I bought only a very small amount ( only on the grounds that munger was giddy about the prospects). At present prices we are fully in speculation territory.

Gartman who?: here we go again; it never ceases to amaze me how shameless and blasphemic those greedy fellows are to make a buck. they are obviously riding the volatility of the times and after locking their minute glory on tv, thet make a quick buck on their negative advertising. The theory of valuation is dead, it is all about predicting the swings they say. I feel bad for the victims of their scams. Well I guess I have to scrape up some cash to buy some more brk and ffh now.

thanks Arbitragr ;)

And the winner is.......: Bronco. Good logic. ;D When the clouds of fear, doubt and confusion clear, brk's market value will pop back up to where it belongs. Should not take too long. Nice little arbitrage opportunity though.

The real Warren Buffett gets a B+ from me for its excellent first half. The new Buffettology gets an A as a good tool for basic valuation techniques (even though Mary shamelessly used her prior access to Buffett, but that is besides the point). The making of an american capitalist by Lowenstein (not on the list, I know) gets an A as far as biographies are concerned.