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GrizzlyRock

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Posts posted by GrizzlyRock

    Value Investor Meetup in Seattle

    in General Discussion

    Posted

    This event does not have the formality for video and video / being "on the record" may discourage open dialogue.  I plan to bring a few "warm-up" type of items to engender conversation. 

     

    I won't be covering GVC yet any attendee who wants to make a few points & discuss is more than willing to do so...

     

    Dialogue & relationship building are the value-drivers for these types of things

    Fairholme Opens up Hedge Fund

    in General Discussion

    Posted

    i don't think he wll file a separate 13f. I believe all the assets under the umbrella of FCM will be filed in 1 13f.

     

    Hhmm... Is this speculation or are you confident in this?  If so can you describe as such? 

     

    I'm not a securities attorney so this is a real question

    Value Investor Meetup in Seattle

    in General Discussion

    Posted

    Ok cool - I'm bringing another guy too so make that 11.  Obv there are multiple ways to run something like this.  Given its first meeting perhaps we could have everyone introduce themselves and give a brief background on what they do / how they look at things.  Potentially also give a snippet of an idea they are working on and why its interesting?  Little casual & little structured has worked the best for me wrt these types of things before

     

    For the more organized discussion what do you guys want to talk about?

    (1) Something straight-forward like MUSA?

    (2) Something harder like shorting some organic food roll-ups?

    (3) Other relatively common company that popular on this board? (EBIX or GVC?)

    or (4) perhaps something topical like concentration / Kelly formula etc?

     

    Fannie preferreds are in my "to hard" pile.  Go ask Fairholme ;)

    Books / PDFs regarding franchise-based businesses?

    in General Discussion

    Posted

    Hey guys I am working on a project to better understand / invest in franchise-based businesses. Not franchise like a large moat (e.g. Coke) - franchise like 99% of Dunkin Donuts locations are owned by franchises.  And not a book on selecting a franchise to open as a job - rather optimal focus points of PE firms and/or we value investors wrt public businesses.

     

    I'm looking for any material you may have around - focus on case studies, academic analysis, and any longer form material. (Don't think any books exist on the subject).  Perhaps someone has an old MBA case or two?

     

    Thanks

    -Grizzly

     

     

    Value Investor Meetup in Seattle

    in General Discussion

    Posted

    Thanks again to compoundinglife for kicking this off.

     

    From past experiences, most people get the most from this type of gatherings when involved & willing put in a touch of prep time (such as reading.  Active discussion benefits everyone.  As such, I'll can either lead a discussion of an equity that many would be interested (perhaps MUSA?) or a topic.  If anyone has suggestions feel free to respond as below.

     

    Weekends will be much harder than weeknights for me.

    Setting up an investment fund - need some advice

    in General Discussion

    Posted

    When I was getting started I did a simple "incubator" fund with minimal paper work and WAY less costly the $20K.  Then if/when you roll over in to a "real fund" as defined by charging fees and accepting outside money (not including your buddy) you build out the full HF docs etc

     

    I went with these guys and have bee a client noe for 3+ years: http://www.investmentlawgroup.com/contact-us  Good guys at reasonable cost -

     

    Ask for Andrew Kalt and feel free to reference me by the way (Kyle at GrizzlyRock)

    Bigliari annual meeting notes

    in General Discussion

    Posted

    As shown in the share count chart I attached above, the 1,433,716 is before you back out shares owned by the Lion Fund. BH common shareholders own $50.7 million of the $104 million fund and subtracting their proportion of BH share which are owned by the Lion Fund leads to the share count of 1,333,990.

    Bigliari annual meeting notes

    in General Discussion

    Posted

    Guys - share count is super confusing due to BH owning and consolidating (per GAAP) a hedge fund which owns a significant chunk of the shares.  See attached or my full write-up in the BH thread. 

     

    If you make the argument that Sardar can chose not to sell the BH shares if LPs leave the Lion Fund then you can make an argument for 1,227,973 shares outstanding.  I choose the use the 1,333,990 for conservatism.

    Biglari_Holdings_Share_Count.pdf

    The Sure Thing

    in General Discussion

    Posted

    Isn't comparing the potential future returns of Fairfax and Brk problematic due to size?

     

    Fairfax (mkt cap of $8 billion) has a much younger CEO and isn't workign with the sums that WEB (mkt cap of $264 billion) is using. I doubt BRK will annualize 15% for a decade even though it is somewhat undervalued...

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