GrizzlyRock

http://cdn1.valuewalk.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/07/Zillow-Trulia-final.pdf

Material seems appropriate but I'm skeptical until the company or ESL confirms it.

This event does not have the formality for video and video / being "on the record" may discourage open dialogue. I plan to bring a few "warm-up" type of items to engender conversation. I won't be covering GVC yet any attendee who wants to make a few points & discuss is more than willing to do so... Dialogue & relationship building are the value-drivers for these types of things

Although cognizant not to fight the last war, I am still skiddish after seeing the CP roll shut down in 2007 followed by HY months before equities topped out. Of course this knowledge doesn't affect day-to-day value investing yet important to know if the tide is shifting

BB should just show this and he's get institutional investors (who can handle the price vol)

yep - that seems to make sense. Thanks... Also, we won't be able to compare the mutual fund reports with the 13F statements as the mutual fund YE is May while the 13F filings are June. Sneaky

Hhmm... Is this speculation or are you confident in this? If so can you describe as such? I'm not a securities attorney so this is a real question

No 13F yet per the assets of ~$67 million as of the latest filing. http://www.sec.gov/cgi-bin/browse-edgar?company=Fairholme+Partnership&owner=exclude&action=getcompany. Not sure where the $140 came from One item not yet mentioned is the possibility of aggressive actions wrt SHLD. While we may or may not see the position in future 13Fs (derivatives not disclosed) BB could self-catalyze a SHLD short squeeze...

Ok cool - I'm bringing another guy too so make that 11. Obv there are multiple ways to run something like this. Given its first meeting perhaps we could have everyone introduce themselves and give a brief background on what they do / how they look at things. Potentially also give a snippet of an idea they are working on and why its interesting? Little casual & little structured has worked the best for me wrt these types of things before For the more organized discussion what do you guys want to talk about? (1) Something straight-forward like MUSA? (2) Something harder like shorting some organic food roll-ups? (3) Other relatively common company that popular on this board? (EBIX or GVC?) or (4) perhaps something topical like concentration / Kelly formula etc? Fannie preferreds are in my "to hard" pile. Go ask Fairholme ;)

Hey guys I am working on a project to better understand / invest in franchise-based businesses. Not franchise like a large moat (e.g. Coke) - franchise like 99% of Dunkin Donuts locations are owned by franchises. And not a book on selecting a franchise to open as a job - rather optimal focus points of PE firms and/or we value investors wrt public businesses. I'm looking for any material you may have around - focus on case studies, academic analysis, and any longer form material. (Don't think any books exist on the subject). Perhaps someone has an old MBA case or two? Thanks -Grizzly

Perhaps we start a thread in the Invest Ideas section?

Thanks again to compoundinglife for kicking this off. From past experiences, most people get the most from this type of gatherings when involved & willing put in a touch of prep time (such as reading. Active discussion benefits everyone. As such, I'll can either lead a discussion of an equity that many would be interested (perhaps MUSA?) or a topic. If anyone has suggestions feel free to respond as below. Weekends will be much harder than weeknights for me.

Hmmm. two guys mentioned resources (Hellsten & bmichaud) and Parsad said "a few guys are on the right track" Also, earlier this year Parsad mentioned he was running ~$7 million so call it $8 million (ish) now and a 10% position is $800K. So a small cap makes sense. I guess its small cap resource stock with no debt that is cash flowing...

Hey Seattle area people I think getting a regular / semi regular meet-up would be of value. I'll contribute to planning if guys are in Thoughts?

There is a great discussion of exactly how to use the formula in the new market wizards. See attached for a spreadsheet that let's you play with formulas and a portion of a Kelly Growth piece I wrote earlier this year. Hey Chris - how do you use the formula? Kelly_Examples_Excel.xlsx GR_Use_of_Kelly.doc

When I was getting started I did a simple "incubator" fund with minimal paper work and WAY less costly the $20K. Then if/when you roll over in to a "real fund" as defined by charging fees and accepting outside money (not including your buddy) you build out the full HF docs etc I went with these guys and have bee a client noe for 3+ years: http://www.investmentlawgroup.com/contact-us Good guys at reasonable cost - Ask for Andrew Kalt and feel free to reference me by the way (Kyle at GrizzlyRock)

This...

I'll be at Tilson's cocktail event

As shown in the share count chart I attached above, the 1,433,716 is before you back out shares owned by the Lion Fund. BH common shareholders own $50.7 million of the $104 million fund and subtracting their proportion of BH share which are owned by the Lion Fund leads to the share count of 1,333,990.

Guys - share count is super confusing due to BH owning and consolidating (per GAAP) a hedge fund which owns a significant chunk of the shares. See attached or my full write-up in the BH thread. If you make the argument that Sardar can chose not to sell the BH shares if LPs leave the Lion Fund then you can make an argument for 1,227,973 shares outstanding. I choose the use the 1,333,990 for conservatism. Biglari_Holdings_Share_Count.pdf

Isn't comparing the potential future returns of Fairfax and Brk problematic due to size? Fairfax (mkt cap of $8 billion) has a much younger CEO and isn't workign with the sums that WEB (mkt cap of $264 billion) is using. I doubt BRK will annualize 15% for a decade even though it is somewhat undervalued...

I know, I know - I'm way late. My schedule recently opened up to attend this year and my guess is someone here has an extra room or a change of plans. Please message me if you have an extra room Friday and Saturday.

Off thread but an excellent piece from Gary Brode: http://sumzero.com/tvisnext

Respectively - this is not an effective pairs trade. Businesses don't line up at all... Drivers are vastly different at each business

The only way to win here is not play - they both have sick records but this was childish. An (another) example of why WEB is not in NY