sampr01

Why MX now Thanks

Thanks. This is an individually managed account for past three years and managed by him through Integrated advisor solutions NOT through his fund. He terminated his relationship recently with Integrated advisor solution and received a letter stating that transfer account to another broker in 30 days. I will check my paper work and get back to you. Thanks

Thanks for suggestions. Compliant is mainly for too concentrated portfolio in two distressed companies wiped out close to 2/3 rd of $$, when it should have been low risk and conservative. I am not going to disclose who the advisor is. I discussed with this with advisor already and he is okay with it. Thanks

Hi CoBF members Did any one filed a recovery claim or compliant against a financial advisor?. If yes, please can you share resources or any template letter that you have used. Are they any attorneys on CoBF willing to help me with arbitration process, please let me know. Thank you

Hi Packer What are your thoughts on this company. Are you following this company before Thanks

Thanks . How did you do that. I googled but unable to come up with any hits Thanks

I have been following Steven Wood (GW investors) from early days of FAITY research (he is the one indicated $RACE spin off long before everyone). In his blog he recently invested in an European company with same potential as Fiat. Hints are: 100 million FCF, he has Board seat, and New management.. I am curious... any way find out with clues for fun... .... Our largest position in Europe, where we have a board seat and are working with a new management team to transform the company, is most likely going to become a holding company. Around 30% of the revenue of this company is generated in a “shitty” industry that has no chance of becoming a growth business. But it is a local monopoly with substantial barriers to entry. Furthermore, it provides the platform upon which we can build its other businesses and launch a significant number of new growth initiatives. Excluding two assets which generate none of the cash flow today, we have obtained a €100 million cashflow stream for free. Free is a good price to pay, particularly when there is no bankruptcy risk nor debt. This setup is eerily similar to our purchase of Fiat whereby we got Ferrari at a deep value price of €4.5 billion, and got the rest of the business for free. Eventually, shareholders of both companies have and will end up owning multiple pieces of paper. ......

Hi I would like to get some guidance on "how one can handle 1099-OID and issuer filed for BK after acquisition. Thanks in adavance Thanks

Same applies to AIG and all banks... ;D how is trump going to find new shareholders to put up serious capital if the old shareholders are screwed? Same as with any other recapitalization or bankruptcy. I think that's a much harder sell. This isn't a typical bankruptcy/insolvency where shareholders hold responsibility for the management they put in place. This is instance where the government, in a crisis, took over control of the company under false pretenses and then unilaterally re-wrote the terms of the agreement of ceding control to screw the shareholders to the maximum amount possible even though hindsight showed shareholders never needed the government to step in to begin with. If the gov't can simply take a company into conservatorship based on concerns of what COULD happen, and then unilaterally turn that conservatorship into a liquidation when that company is still solvent and incredibly profitable, and then keep all those proceeds for itself without ever compensating shareholders, then you have a recipe for there never being a private solution to a crisis/potential crisis again. What shareholder is ever going to take the risk if the government can simply step in and renegotiate terms to sweep all profits to itself with no legal review whatsoever? What shareholder would step into such a politically polarizing company with the knowledge that the administration could simply steal it back at the next hint of any problems whatsoever. This really concerns me as a precedent for any future crisis, nationwide or company specific, where the gov't can simply absorb a company based on assumptions that never play out and never owe shareholders anything for it. I think the bulk of the global investor community would offer a very different account of events. The prevailing view, I think, is: FNMA/FMCC failed in about the most catastrophic way possible and were bailed out by the government (consistent with expectations that the government effectively guaranteed GSE debt). Economically, the equity and prefs were zeros. Had they simply been written off at the time, nobody would have blinked an eye (despite, according to your view, that being an even greater miscarriage of justice). But they weren't and a few hedge funds continue to fight a legal battle to recover a windfall gain. Should the GSEs get restructured into clean start capital structuers, there will be plenty of investors, same as there are in banks, insurance companies and so on - all of which exist with the understanding that the government has wide power to protect its guarantees. The risk of failing during a downturn widely applies to financial companies, and is accounted for in the required return on equity capital. ...except that isn't what happened. I also think your assumption that everyone would have bee ok had they wiped the equity out then isn't the case. I didn't start following until 2012, so I can't say for certain, BUT I imagine there would've been a MUCH higher bar needed for the gov't to actually wipe out 100% of equity interest than was needed for conservatorship. It's one thing to say "something really bad appears to be happening and we're going to take the reigns temporarily to ensure the companies survive" than it is to say "something really bad appears to be happening and we're going to wipe out your interest in the company based on assumptions we're making that we're not going to let play out." FNMA/FMCC were put into conservatorship when they failed to raise short-term funding necessary to continue operations from the private markets in 2008. They were temporarily illquid, which is the same as insolvent. Simple as that. At that point, the equity should have been worth $0 unless there were excess funds in bankruptcy. The government was the only willing lender to save FNMA/FMCC from default. Considering the likely effects on the MBS market if FNMA and/or FMCC defaulted, I sincerely doubt there would have been any residual value for the common, at that time. I don't think it's fair to expect the benefits of a GSE while decrying any and all consequences. That goes against the foundations of capitalism, which is the risk/reward trade-off. Any other companies, at any other time, would have failed. There's articles surrounding the DTA write-off and write-up, that make it look like government theft. Those DTAs truly were worthless when written off. Maybe you could argue they were quick on the draw to write them down, but it was a reasonable decision. Without the explicit government funding starting in late-2008, they never would have been able to make it through the illquid period (to return to solvency) and the DTAs would have remained worthless. The government funding almost certainly improved the stability of the mortgage market, accounting changes allowed FNMA/FMCC to avoid MTM, FNMA/FMCC returned to some profitability, and the DTAs regained their value. Temporary illquidity is insolvency. No one complains about the accounting change to provide relief from MTM accounting when talking about FNMA/FMCC. The NWS is a whole other can of worms, but the common should have been a $0 in 2008. In my opinion, the circumstances of the times forced the government to save the equity as a consequence of saving the MBS market for the greater good (or as a favor to bankers and pension funds, or all of the above). I think the tax payers deserve FNMA/FMCC and all creditors should be made whole. Whether they legally deserve this is another question for smarter folks than myself. Most creditors helped contribute to the recovery and thus deserve the benefits of waiting out the illquid period. No one below the preferreds deserves a dime in my opinion. This is obviously a very simplistic view but I think FNMA/FMCC investors ignore all of the government actions that benefited them over the last 10 years and just focus on a few actions and call them theft. No one wants to repay the benefits but they demand restitution for any and all the negative actions. The government's actions have delivered fantastic underlying returns for most creditors, relative to the alternatives that almost certainly would have resulted in significant haircuts if FNMA/FMCC were immediately wound down. I actually think the government handled the FnF issue extremely well, considering the restrictions and criteria placed on them. Bush/Obama admins both did very well imo. The US should have had bread lines in 2008 and 2009. We should have had a severe depression. I think the prolonged low growth period was a consequence of absorbing those losses over a prolonged period.

Lucky for SHLD shareholders. If FNMA works for him and his investors will show patience for at least 2-3 years.

Does anyone has a primer for Mortgage servicers. thanks

Companies raise prices for lots of reasons. Economists that are hired by BODs to come in and consult on setting prices. On everything from Ipods to cereal, Drugs to toothpaste. The list goes on and on. There's a lot of though put into it. It's legal for a firm to extract as much price as it's legally possible. Does that make it moral? Hardly. This is especially the case in a monopoly. While pricing discretion in monopolies like utilities are restrained by regulators, it is far less so in pharmaceutical companies with patented drugs that have virtually 0 viable substitutes. Here, you have a wide range of different choices. What Pearson et al likely missed is that egregious price hikes, while allowed under contemporary law, may not be so in the future. Do you work for minimum wages at biotech or pharma industry? Do know how much it cost do basic research to come up with one drug. Do you know how much it cost to run small in vivo preclinical study. Biotech companies are not small software start ups. These companies capital intensive and even making their GMP drug for preclinical studies cost like million dollars. We are not talking human trials. If they don't charge enough for the drugs, no company will survive

Wrong to reserve your judgement of Bill Ackman [i.e. in the VRX topic]: Certainly not as long it's based on conclusions [that might be subjective] based on facts. Such judgements are certainly of relevance related to the expected behavior of the four major hedge funds positions. A lot of the "boo-ing" is coming from the cheap seats : I'm not sure at all if this is a fact. Not many board members have posted their postions in VRX. How can you say he's a snake oil sales man: In my opinion and to my judgement, few board members have done this in this VRX investment situation. Everybody knows he's a hedge fund manager with a material position in VRX for the fund. Yes. I totally agree your comments. Lot of members posting with comments with no insight on VRX (rephrasing same arguments by others) and ACKMAN bashing. Most of them don't even have a position (Long or Short).

Thanks for posting. If you are a ZINC shareholder, you should watch from 24 min. excellent explanation for forecasting. >:(. Always outside view gives you close to ballpark date than insider view >:(

Thanks for the link. These are look like unsecured and are they any risk for BK

What is your estimated time line for Discovery air debentures for maturity. I was unable find anything on net. Thanks

Interesting article on Oil. Worth reading it. :D http://www.valueplays.net/2014/12/01/oil-oil-oil-2/

Hi LC Whats your take on JK bank. NPA's are total right off's in India. I think they have close to 5% NPA, and JK territory hit with floods recently, and NPA's are going to up. Thanks ;)

Do you have a link to the video. I am interested JK Bank. Thanks

Hi Packer, I heard samething too. If you don't mind, What are the securities are you looking at?. thanks

Check FAITY thread, and annual meeting notes along votes for merger. Pabrai has close to 13 mil Fiat shares. Is there any way to confirm his Fiat stake?

Wow.. Sanjeev.. You killed the Overstock options trade.. i wish had your luck on short term options...they always stink for me...Please let us know your next options trade.. :-X

Thanks tw do you have timeframe? We generally buy the best bargains measured by discount to stated value. These are not always the most traded. We will buy the most liquid if they are not too pricey. It's more of a trading opportunity with a call on possible future value because a reorganization that wipes out the public preferred seems unlikely. That's not the way we look at these. The margin of safety lies in the assumption that the UST won't wipe out their own investment in their F&F preferreds by a bankruptcy or similar reorganization. Therefore, it would be unfair to wipe out the rest of the capital structure and unnecessary because the UST's preferred is senior to the rest of the equity claims. Eventually, F&F should be able to earn their way out of the hole in the sense of returning more to the UST than the UST put into them. ( this is more or less the way our government spins accounting to prove they haven 't lost money on organizations they bailed out.) If that 's the case, then something good may happen to the holders of the public preferred. And possibly something less for the common.

thanks. how much upside u r looking at? We generally buy the best bargains measured by discount to stated value. These are not always the most traded. We will buy the most liquid if they are not too pricey. It's more of a trading opportunity with a call on possible future value because a reorganization that wipes out the public preferred seems unlikely.

hi twacowfca are looking it as a trade or for long term investement. Which prefs did you buy FMCKJ or FNMAS or FNMAT. if you don't mind can you share your entry price because they are up more than $1 Thanks