LongHaul

Totally agree Liberty. Let's look at this analytically. R0 without masks: 2.5 Mask reduction effect on RO: 70% (my assumption) RO with masks: 2.5 * .3 = .75 Essentially an R0 of .75 equals an exponential decline in Covid. This means we kill the virus. FYI - read of a couple that died in my hometown after getting Covid in the supermarket. If you go the market (high risk) then you should definitively wear a mask. I strongly prefer surgical or N95 (if you have them).

I had read an article that the Italian Health Minister said that they had brought the RO down from 3 to 1 with the lockdown. What that means is that Italy hasn't been able to kill the virus. I still see people in my neighborhood too close to each other etc. Which means many are not being careful. At this point I don't see how this virus goes away unless there is herd immunity and Covid is here to stay for awhile. A "cure" or solution could be found. It might be 2 years for normal life to return. A least it better than the black death!

Great data find Always. That is amazing. How high that goes is anyone's guess. Thanks Dalal for the medical help. For everyone: If you are truly hating something go for a walk and release your hate. There is no benefit to you or the world. Hate deforms the mind and turns it into cabbage. It probably also causes stress and hinders seeing objectively. Psychological bias' are easy to study - hard to live

Interesting information here if you get Covid that a pulmonologist told Chris Cuomo. I haven't confirmed any of it. https://www.msn.com/en-us/video/peopleandplaces/chris-cuomo-heres-the-secret-to-kicking-this-virus/vi-BB12fdGt?ocid=U506DHP

Seems to me that there is a very wide range of uncertainty (I am master of the obvious) regarding what happens. 1. 11 year boom 2. Pandemic hit (likely near the top) That is a double hit to the economy. So in 1 -2 months the economy reopens - then what - Covid come back and we do another round of shutdowns? Covid is extremely contagious. Let people out and if they continue as before I think it comes back. So we have this situation around the world where social distancing is here until herd immunity. I think that means the economy sucks until herd immunity. How bad does it get? Credit is being tightened in many areas by banks. Consumers are cutting back, businesses are cutting back, banks tightening, etc. I don't know where the bottom of this is? I think many people are hoping for a quick return to their lives and the economy in 2 months but I don't see it at all.

One of the studies linked in that Arstechnica article Liberty posted showed that flu-like illnesses INCREASED if health care workers wore cloth masks. And cloth masks were only 3% effective in reducing virus. So the downside is actually negative (not zero). https://bmjopen.bmj.com/content/bmjopen/5/4/e006577.full.pdf Good point on the cloth mask study. Cloth masks to seems to be the worst option. N95 or surgical are much better. I wonder how many infections the cloth masks would prevent though. In South Korea I think I read that the govt essentially did a mass distribution of N95 masks for pharmacies to sell cheap. Smart move. Also good masks likely decrease the viral load into the body - which may lower the chance of a really bad case and turn it into a mild one.

From an economic perspective - how do you think this plays out?

Also - on Fauci's point about the primary way a mask helps is so he doesn't infect others. I think he is totally wrong. Commonsense is that masks trap respiratory droplets coming in and out. The First Lady is right! Mask help reduce your chance of becoming infected. Isn't that amazing - America's top doctor on that is probably completely wrong on what could be the most effective way to lower the R0.

Good point Eric about the unknown diabetes. How are people getting the virus that people know of? What has everyone heard? Totally serious question as I have not seen any analysis of this but would love to. I have heard of a few cases. 1. From an opthamalogist 2. Large gatherings - choir in churches, likely near people. 3. Sitting in a seat someone else sat in 3 days prior in a church in Singapore. How else are people hearing others are becoming infected?

This is a Trump quote "I don't think I'm going to be doing it," he said, going on to suggest it was hard to envision such a thing in the Oval Office: "Wearing a face mask as I greet presidents, prime ministers, dictators, kings, queens — I just don't see it." Contrast this with the Chinese leader Xi - wearing a mask. https://www.foreignaffairs.com/articles/united-states/2020-04-03/chinas-coming-upheaval Trump doesn't get it. Memo to Trump: We are in a pandemic - wear a mask.

This should be mandatory reading for everyone in the world. A+ article by CNN "In the 1918 flu pandemic, not wearing a mask was illegal in some parts of America. What changed?" https://www.cnn.com/2020/04/03/americas/flu-america-1918-masks-intl-hnk/index.html Please forward this article to everyone and post it everywhere to get the message out - it may save a life - perhaps your own.

I am totally disgusted with the US Federal Govt and CDC. Complete incompetence. I think commonsense says wearing masks massively lowers the virus droplets in and out and the CDC and WHO fucked up bigtime. I am still surprised by the huge mistake they made. It is inexcusable. This is why you should always, always do your own research on ANYTHING to get to the truth.

New study. Quick summary: masks very significantly reduce virus droplets in the air. https://www.nature.com/articles/s41591-020-0843-2 "We detected coronavirus in respiratory droplets and aerosols in 3 of 10 (30%) and 4 of 10 (40%) of the samples collected without face masks, respectively, but did not detect any virus in respiratory droplets or aerosols collected from participants wearing face masks, this difference was significant in aerosols and showed a trend toward reduced detection in respiratory droplets (Table 1b)" Wear a mask.

That is a powerful video. That lady who coughed, killed him. Really sad.

Liberty - thanks for posting a lot of stuff on Covid! I think wearing masks is likely to help a lot. BUT - here are the Czech numbers - I would have thought they would have come down more as the mandatory mask wearing date was ~3/18/20 https://www.statista.com/statistics/1104327/czechia-coronavirus-covid-19-new-cases/ Any thoughts on this? Maybe too soon to tell because of delays in cases and testing. At the end of the day countries should just copy what works - the East Asian Countries have done well. Masks, Extreme lockdown in China, Mass testing, Physical distancing, etc. Politics Is this really the time to hash out political differences of opinion in the middle of a pandemic - do it after and master your emotions to keep things productive to solve the problem. Who the F cares if someone disagrees with you - let it go. Probably adds stress to your life which weakens the immune system. ;)

Isn't it people own fault if they get the Coronavirus (excluding some like healthcare workers) as I see a lot of Covidiots around?

Very helpful. Thanks Doc!

good idea for a thread. 50% of renters seeking deferral- that is nuts - but I'll bet many are taking advantage of the situation though. A few things. 1. High end guitars seller said sales are down 75%. Very wealthy clients not even buying. 2. I am hearing about people cutting all non-essential expenses to zero. 3. Heard of one real estate advertising firm that laid off 75% of employees as real estate ads dried up. 4. I looked at my credit card spend since March 10th - and was almost nothing on it until the 28th. I wasn't even trying to cut back but we just have not been going out. Probably distracted too. Curious of other people credit card spend?

BG - you may be right 3 months may not mean a big deal. Or it may be a huge deal - I don't know. What concerns me is that the govt has turned communist in a sense and is implicating itself in the market. There are secondary and tertiary effects here. If lots of people don't pay their rent and mortgage then what - the knock on effects are the landlords and banks don't 1. get their cash 2. Forced to extend credit (probably to some very risky borrowers) 3. Lenders tighten even more. 4. The lenders can't foreclose. When the lenders really tighten and tighten because of uncertainty, leverage, economy going to crap, and then they can't foreclose - which is a market fixing mechanism that protects their downside - then you can get an extreme tightening of credit like what happened in the great depression. I would be tightening like hell if I was CEO of a bank with everything going up plus with what the govt is doing. I personally think it is a huge mistake for the govt to turn communist and try to finagle in an economy that has worked really well for 200+ yrs. If individuals and capitalists suffer because they have no margin of safety - then they suffer and learn a lesson that may not be able to be taught another way. A person makes their bed and then the lie in it. The main point is that they economic recession/depression could easily be worsened by this govt policy. I think it might be nuts. And let's not forget - Trump bankrupted how many businesses he owned? I did not mean that as a political comment - but one of business judgement.

Good site for data https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/coronavirus-cases/#daily-cases

I like this thread. Thanks for doing a great writeup. I think the death rate for <60 is quite small perhaps 20-30 bps. Tons of cases are not being testing as people with no to few symptoms are not tested. Germany has low rates of death for younger people. The amount of brainpower on this problem is incredible. Man vs Covid essentially. Man will win in the long run. Also - everyone should wearing masks. No downside - if you have 1 or make 1 and wear it. Lower chance of infecting others and protects yourself. Western cultures need a culture shift immediately. Masks should be worn - even homemade ones. https://medium.com/@matthiassamwald/promoting-simple-do-it-yourself-masks-an-urgent-intervention-for-covid-19-mitigation-14da4100f429 However - I think it is best to think in probabilities about this. chance of 2 month recover vs. 12 months. The models I have seen seem to indicate 4-8 months (or longer) for this to die down, unless severe lockdowns. Very fluid though. And it really has to die on a worldwide basis because it can easily come back.

BTW - Japan seems to be doing. Huge culture of wearing masks. Highly recommend it.

I signed it. Thx for posting LIberty. I agree - people are not taking this seriously. I just yelled at my parents for being at a social event (>6ft apart) but C'mon. I think that is why this will spread - overconfident people putting themselves at risk and Covid 19 is super contagious. They are like children and need to have the hammer brought down. Going to get a lot worse. Funny story - Walks in nature away from everything help me sort things out and destress. I decided to go for a walk in some big woods near me and while in thought, up ahead are some feral hogs and piglets. They were too close so I went up a tree, made loud noises with the piglets squealing the alerts. So much for a calm nature walk....

I appreciate people putting a lot of info and great articles on here. Is anyone else frustrated with the current US situation? I think the most effective way to kill the virus would be to: 1. Shelter in place the entire US population. Stay in your homes except for supermarkets and essentials. Essentially copy China strict policy and enforce it. Perhaps a 3 week shelter in place would be good to start. This would: 1. Allow more testing to ramp up 2. Kill the R0 to <.5 (my guess) if implemented correctly and thus bring the virus transmission down. 3. By the end of the 3 weeks (or more) we can hopefully test almost everyone and then quarantine those testing postiive. Essentially I am trying to come up with a solution that kills the virus as soon as possible and results in the least amount of people getting Covid and the most lives saved. The Goal should be a RO of ZERO. Our leadership at the national level is dragging their feet as a result millions more will likely get Covid 19 and the economy will be shit for far longer. I feel like making a petition to petition the US GOVT to enact a nation shelter in place. Thoughts? Better to be proactive than reactive.

At times the Coronavirus may travel further. Uncertainty suggests staying much farther than 6 ft from people, 20 ft seems safer. "Whereas previous modeling might have suggested that 5-micron droplets can travel only a meter or two—as we’ve heard about the new coronavirus—her work suggests these same droplets can travel up to 8 meters when taking into account the gaseous form of a cough." https://www.wired.com/story/they-say-coronavirus-isnt-airborne-but-its-definitely-borne-by-air/